战略中上游行业
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六大机构,研判A股后市!
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-09 15:42
Core Viewpoint - A-shares are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 4000 points, but still showing resilience supported by stable economic and policy expectations, indicating potential for further growth in the Chinese stock market from foreign investors [1] Economic Indicators - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The People's Bank of China reported a continuous increase in gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October [2] Market Adjustments - MSCI announced the inclusion of 26 new Chinese stocks in its China Index, while removing 20, with new additions including several resource stocks and technology companies in semiconductors and high-end manufacturing [3] Investment Recommendations - CITIC Securities suggests increasing allocations in sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy, which are at historical low profitability and industry prosperity levels [4] - Zhongtai Securities highlights opportunities in robotics, brokerage firms, and other sectors benefiting from consumption policies and market recovery, focusing on strategic upstream industries and technology applications [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes the resilience of A-shares, recommending investments in cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new consumption, while also maintaining focus on AI-related technology growth [6] Market Valuation - In terms of valuation, the MSCI China Index has a forward P/E ratio of 13.9, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 22.9, indicating that the Chinese stock market remains attractive despite recent increases [7] - The Chinese market is seen as appealing due to diversified economic growth, improving liquidity, and upward revisions in corporate earnings forecasts, supported by ongoing fiscal policies [7] - The demand for energy storage is driving lithium prices up, with expectations of continued high growth in the storage market, potentially leading to a significant increase in lithium prices by 2026 [7]