Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is showing signs of independent recovery, with significant increases in transaction volumes despite the traditional off-season [1] - The market is experiencing a "small spring" ahead of the usual peak season, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices and a shift in market sentiment [1] Beijing Market - In January, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume reached 15,082 units, maintaining above 14,000 units for three consecutive months [5] - The market's recovery began after the introduction of new supportive policies on December 24, 2025, which included easing purchase requirements for non-local buyers and supporting families with multiple children [5] - The demand for second-hand school district homes has surged, with prices in some areas increasing by approximately 100,000 to 150,000 yuan [5] Shanghai Market - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions also saw a rise, with January figures reaching 22,834 units, marking a five-year high [8] - The listing volume in Shanghai has decreased for nine consecutive months, dropping from around 120,000 units in April 2025 to 89,000 units in January 2026, a decline of 26% [9] - The shift in landlord mentality, with many opting to hold onto properties rather than engage in price competition, has contributed to the declining listing volume [9] Guangzhou and Shenzhen Markets - Guangzhou's second-hand housing market recorded 8,881 transactions in January, showing resilience with a slight month-on-month increase [10] - In Shenzhen, the transaction volume reached 6,802 units, a 2.9% increase month-on-month and a 45.5% increase year-on-year, marking a ten-month high [10] - The average price in Shenzhen remained stable at 50,801 yuan per square meter, with a notable increase in transactions for high-quality properties [10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the first-tier cities remains positive, with a significant portion of respondents in a survey indicating expectations of stable or increasing prices [11] - The market is expected to continue its recovery, driven by strong demand and favorable policies, with predictions of good transaction volumes in the upcoming months [12] - However, the market still faces challenges, including the need for further reductions in transaction costs and improvements in consumer confidence [12]