Core Viewpoint - New housing supply has increased by 16% month-on-month, with cities like Guangzhou, Suzhou, Dongguan, and Changzhou seeing significant growth [1][3][4] - New home transactions have shown a slight increase in Guangzhou, while third and fourth-tier cities like Xuzhou and Huizhou have rebounded significantly [1][9][10] - The average project sell-through rate has increased by 3 percentage points to 35%, with cities like Tianjin, Suzhou, and Ningbo exceeding 60% [1][12][13] - Inventory has slightly decreased by 1% due to a supply-demand ratio of 0.82, with one-third of cities improving their sell-through cycles [1][16][17] - The second-hand housing market saw a 14% month-on-month increase in transaction area, with cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Wuhan experiencing significant growth [1][19][20] Group 1: New Supply - In November, the expected new supply in 30 key cities reached 6.69 million square meters, marking a 16% month-on-month increase [4] - Guangzhou's supply doubled month-on-month to 610,000 square meters, while second and third-tier cities saw a 14% increase in supply, driven by cities like Xi'an and Suzhou [4][10] - The overall supply in first-tier cities increased by 23%, with a total of 1.49 million square meters [4] Group 2: New Home Transactions - The total transaction area for new homes in 30 monitored cities was 8.15 million square meters in November, with a cumulative total of 10.65 million square meters for the first eleven months [10] - Guangzhou's transaction volume increased by 2% month-on-month, while cities like Chengdu and Xi'an maintained high transaction volumes [10][20] - The transaction volume in second-tier cities reached 670,000 square meters, with cities like Hefei and Zhuhai showing signs of recovery [10] Group 3: Project Sell-Through Rates - The average sell-through rate for new projects in 30 key cities was 34% in November, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points [12][13] - Cities like Tianjin, Suzhou, and Ningbo had sell-through rates exceeding 60%, benefiting from the launch of popular projects [12][13] - Major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou are seeing a steady recovery in sell-through rates, while previously sluggish cities like Wuhan and Zhengzhou are also showing improvement [12][13] Group 4: Inventory and Supply-Demand Ratio - The inventory in 30 cities slightly decreased to 21.89 million square meters, down 1% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year [17] - The supply-demand ratio improved from 0.6 to 0.82, indicating a more balanced market [16][17] - One-third of cities have improved their sell-through cycles, with some cities like Xuzhou and Huizhou experiencing a decrease in their sell-through periods [16][17] Group 5: Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in November was approximately 17.04 million square meters, reflecting a 14% month-on-month increase [20] - First-tier cities saw a 10% month-on-month increase in transaction volume, while second-tier cities experienced a 13% increase [20] - Cities like Chengdu and Wuhan showed significant month-on-month growth, with some third and fourth-tier cities doubling their transaction volumes [20] Group 6: Land Market - The land transaction area and amount increased by 39% and 57% month-on-month, respectively, with an average premium rate showing signs of recovery [22][23] - The total land supply for November reached 290 million square meters, marking a 250% increase month-on-month [23] - First-tier cities experienced a 36% increase in land transaction volume, with notable sales in high-demand areas [23][25] Group 7: Corporate Sales Performance - In November, 38 real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in sales, with 15 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [27][28] - Major companies like China Overseas Land, China Resources Land, and Greenland Holdings saw significant increases in their sales figures [28][29] - The overall sales performance reflects a positive trend in the real estate market, with leading companies maintaining strong sales momentum [28][29]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 新房网签面积同比降幅扩大，二手房网签面积同比转负 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 16 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 16 日） | 新房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 16 日） | 二手房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 16 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | | 样本城市 | -28% | -扩大 | -25 PCT | 样本城市 | -28% | 转负 | -42 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | 转负 | -40 PCT | 一线城市 | -30% | 转负 | -55 PCT | | （4 城） | | | ...