上个月我一位从事房地产中介十余年的朋友小张深夜给我发了条消息："这个月又有三个客户跟我说要 断供了，心里挺不是滋味的。" 我和小张认识多年，知道他一直兢兢业业，从不做虚假宣传，也不忽悠客户买卖房子。他说这是他从业 以来遇到的最艰难时期，许多购房者面临巨大的还贷压力，却又无法通过抛售房产来解套。 这让我想深入了解一下当前房地产市场的真实情况。近期我走访了多个城市的房地产中介、银行工作人 员和购房者，试图揭开"抛售潮迟迟没出现"背后的真相。 从市场数据来看，截至2025年8月，全国70个大中城市二手房价格指数连续18个月下跌，平均跌幅达 9.6%。按照传统经济学理论，价格持续下跌通常会引发恐慌性抛售，但奇怪的是，预期中的大规模"抛 售潮"并未如期而至。根据某大型房产平台发布的《2025年上半年房地产市场报告》显示，今年上半年 全国二手房挂牌量同比仅增长3.2%，远低于市场预期的10%以上。 这种现象背后有着复杂的原因。通过走访，我发现许多房主宁愿继续承受高额房贷压力，也不愿低价出 售房产。在北京工作的李先生告诉我："我2020年买的房子，现在市值已经跌了15%左右，如果现在 卖，不仅本金亏损，还要倒贴银行十几万。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the looming risks of a real estate bubble in China, suggesting that the current market dynamics resemble a "musical chairs" game, indicating an impending end to speculative activities in the housing market [1][10]. Economic Downturn and Increased Savings - In 2022, the economic downturn and repeated pandemic impacts led to heightened public concerns about job security and income, resulting in a significant increase in the desire to save, with 61.8% of respondents in a survey indicating a preference for saving, up by 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The increase in savings does not benefit all demographics equally, as the 15 trillion yuan in new deposits primarily flows to wealthier individuals who do not require housing, leaving low-income groups unable to afford homes [3]. High Housing Prices and Affordability Gap - The average price of new residential properties in December 2022 reached 16,177 yuan per square meter, while second-hand homes averaged 15,876 yuan per square meter, making it difficult for most families to afford homes, with typical residential purchases requiring down payments of 500,000 to 600,000 yuan [4]. - The suggestion to stimulate the economy through housing purchases may inadvertently encourage ordinary citizens to become "greater fools" in a high-price market, overlooking the realities of supply and demand [4]. Supply-Demand Imbalance in Real Estate Market - The real estate market is characterized by a significant oversupply, with 96% of households owning at least one property and 1.2 billion vacant homes available, indicating a supply far exceeding demand [6]. - The market is transitioning back to its fundamental purpose of providing housing rather than serving as an investment vehicle, as evidenced by the increasing number of cities entering an adjustment phase where speculative buying is losing its appeal [8]. Future Market Dynamics - The increase in affordable housing options is expected to divert demand away from the commercial housing market, leading to a segmentation of the real estate market into three categories: commercial housing, rental housing, and shared ownership housing [8]. - This segmentation is anticipated to curb speculative buying behaviors and promote healthier market development [8]. Conclusion - The risks associated with a potential real estate bubble are significant, and reliance on real estate to stimulate economic growth is becoming increasingly untenable, signaling the end of a prolonged speculative phase in the market [10].