国债买卖或重长期效应轻短期规模 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251130 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《流动性与科技双驱动的资本市场— —2026 年度展望：大类资产》 2025-11-28 《俄乌"28 点"停火协议：和平之路 依旧漫长》 2025-11-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为49.95%，较上周回升0.01个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.86%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.87%，较 上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI ...

三大利空集体来袭，A股承压？踏空者或因此避险，散户如何应对 2025年的A股市场真是让散户朋友们捏了把汗，刚熬过年初的震荡调整，最近盘面又变得沉甸甸的——指数上攻乏力，热门 板块轮流跳水，手里的股票不涨反跌，没入场的踏空者更是不敢轻易出手。打开财经新闻，各种利空消息似乎凑到了一 起：行业监管政策收紧、宏观经济数据不及预期、市场资金面承压，三重压力叠加让A股蒙上阴影。不少散户疑惑：这到底 是短期回调的"纸老虎"，还是新一轮下跌的信号？踏空者该趁机避险，还是抄底入场？持有股票的又该如何守住收益、避 开雷区？ 今天就聊聊2025年官方实锤的几大核心利空，再给散户们送上接地气的应对攻略，所有信息都有权威来源，绝不瞎忽悠。 一、行业监管"亮红灯"：两大板块迎政策收紧，利空落地 2025年下半年，监管层针对重点行业的调控政策密集出台，直接击中部分板块的核心逻辑，成为A股局部承压的重要原因。 房地产板块首当其冲。2025年11月15日，住建部发布《关于进一步规范房地产开发企业融资行为的通知》，明确要求房企 融资杠杆率不得超过50%，同时加强预售资金监管，严禁挪用预售款。紧接着11月20日，多地跟进暂停第三套及以上住房 商业 ...

文 | 远东资信，作者 | 张林 当前房地产市场的总体状况依然不尽人意。从销售看，2025年前10月商品房销售面积同比下滑6.8%， 销售额同比下滑9.6%，10月百强房企销售额同比下滑超过30%，传统"银十"彻底缺席。从房价来看，10 月70城10月环比、同比继续全线下跌，二手房跌幅更大。从库存看，消化周期已达30个月的历史新高， 三四线更高。从稳地产的政策效果来看，目前白名单贷款已超4万亿、保交楼专项借款3000亿、城中村 改造收购存量房，但市场反应却越来越钝化。 以上这些现状和数据，正是万科展期的一个宏观背景。 从宏观经济研究的视角来看，加大救助房地产市场的力度是非常有必要的。新旧动能转换当然需要社会 资源的重新配置，持续高增长的房价会挤出其他领域的投融资机会。日本在房地产泡沫破裂后的经验与 教训也说明，投融资体系需要快速的从传统领域切换到新领域，而不应仍在房地产、建筑等传统领域持 续输血，以避免金融体系的资产负债表损失集中而快速的显现。 但是，也应当看到日本当时缓慢而长期的通缩环境实际上并不利于创新体制的形成，创新往往意味着高 风险，但日本的银行部门因净息差收窄而普遍产生"惜贷"现象，居民部门忙于去杠 ...

我国房地产市场未来需求展望 联 联合资信 工商评级一部 冯磊 张超 本研究通过对我国房地产市场未来需求进行定性与定量分析发现，短期 内房地产市场仍将下行，但下跌空间相对有限；长期看，在购房适龄人口达 峰回落、城镇化进程深化、婚育率持续走低以及保障房与租赁市场加速发展 的多重因素影响下，住房整体需求下降空间仍很大，并呈现显著的城市分化 与产品结构分化特征，表现为：核心城市优质地段房产因供需关系紧平衡， 价格仍具有韧性并有望跑赢通胀，而其余房产面临空置及价格大幅下降压 力。在此背景下，对房企而言，央国企以往依赖融资成本差异的竞争逻辑趋 于弱化，未来可持续发展的关键，在于真正聚焦客户真实需求、持续提升产 品力，并积极培育产业招商与运营能力，以构建穿越周期的新发展模式。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、研究背景及目的 2025 年 10 月 23 日，第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报正式发布，其中 对房地产相关表述置于"加大保障和改善民生力度"部分，明确提出要"推动房地产 高质量发展"。上述部署是适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，促 进房地产市场平稳健康发展的治本之策，房地产高 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new development model in real estate, focusing on optimizing supply structures and enhancing living quality, which is a strategic move to address deep-rooted issues in the sector [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift from short-term regulatory measures to long-term mechanisms, indicating a more sustainable approach to managing the real estate market [5]. - The emphasis on "good housing" reflects a commitment to improving housing quality and meeting diverse housing needs, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stabilize the market [3][5]. Market Tracking Summary - In October, new home prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 19.60% in sales area and 25.06% in sales amount, indicating significant downward pressure [6]. - The report notes that the inventory of unsold properties remains high, despite a continuous decrease in the area of unsold properties for eight months [6][8]. - The financing environment for real estate companies is showing signs of improvement, with a net inflow of funds in the bond market, although market sentiment remains cautious [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a significant decline in land transaction volumes and prices, with a 13% decrease in land area and a 20% drop in transaction value in October [7]. - The focus on revitalizing underutilized land and properties is highlighted as a key strategy for addressing supply-side challenges [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-tiered housing supply system to meet the diverse needs of different demographic groups, particularly for affordable and improved housing [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The downstream real estate sector shows a slight recovery, while the service industry's domestic flight frequency experiences a minor decline [1][3]. - Upstream nickel and egg prices rise, while international crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. Mid - stream PX, urea, and PTA prices fall, power plant coal consumption is at a low level, and asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: At the National Development and Reform Commission's November press conference on November 27, the commission responded to market hot - spot issues such as humanoid robots and the expansion of infrastructure REITs project issuance. It aims to prevent high - repetition humanoid robot products from flooding the market and promote the healthy and standardized development of the embodied intelligence industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. This is an important measure to improve the universal medical insurance system [1]. B. Industry Data - **Upstream**: - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices rise slightly, with the spot price on November 27 at 119,366.7 yuan/ton, a 1.98% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recover, with the spot price on November 27 at 6.4 yuan/kg, a 2.74% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Energy**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. On November 27, the spot price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, a 1.33% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 62.5 dollars/barrel, a 1.53% year - on - year decrease; and the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 4,084 yuan/ton, a 2.34% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Chemical Industry**: PX, urea, and PTA prices fall. On November 27, the spot price of PTA is 4,628.3 yuan/ton, a 0.61% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,980 yuan/ton, a 0.26% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Energy**: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. - **Downstream**: - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities rise slightly [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreases slightly [3].

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates an increase in consumer sentiment and continued growth in the technology manufacturing sector, with notable trends in various industries [1] Consumer Sector - Domestic demand indicators are improving, with tourism and long-distance travel showing continuous recovery, suggesting a shift towards service-oriented and mass consumer goods consumption despite a contraction in real estate and durable goods [1] - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively; the sales volume in major cities continues to struggle [1] - Durable goods consumption remains under pressure, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year; in October, domestic sales and exports of air conditioners fell by 21.3% and 19.0% respectively [1][2] Technology & Manufacturing - The technology hardware sector is experiencing marginal growth slowdown, influenced by AI infrastructure investments; however, the overall sentiment remains strong, with October's PCB exports increasing by 23.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in growth rate [3] - Construction demand is still weak, with slight recovery in steel prices due to reduced operating rates of blast furnaces; prices for glass and cement continue to be under pressure [3] - The new energy lithium battery sector remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, while prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3] Logistics & Transportation - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 18.0%; airline passenger load factors are high, indicating a recovery in business and tourism travel [4] - Freight logistics have seen a month-on-month decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively; postal and express delivery volumes also fell significantly post "Double Eleven" [4] - Maritime transport prices for dry bulk and oil have risen sharply, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a differentiated growth pattern in the macroeconomic landscape, with strong performance in emerging technologies, ongoing price increases in TMT hardware and lithium battery materials, and improvements in tourism and travel, while demand for durable goods in real estate remains under pressure [1]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively [2]. - Durable goods consumption continues to show signs of overextension, with daily retail sales of passenger cars still declining year-on-year [2]. - Tourism consumption prices in Hainan increased by 4.2% month-on-month, indicating a sustained improvement in tourism [2]. Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The TMT hardware sector continues to show strong performance driven by AI infrastructure investment, although growth momentum is slightly slowing [3]. - The construction demand remains weak, with a slight rebound in steel prices due to a decrease in high furnace operating rates [3]. - The lithium battery industry remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, and prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain high due to supply constraints and strong heating and electricity demand [3]. - Industrial metal prices have declined amid fluctuations in overseas interest rate expectations [3]. Group 4: Passenger and Freight Logistics - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index increasing by 3.8% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year [4]. - Freight logistics have seen a decline, with nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively [4]. - Shipping prices for dry bulk and oil have risen significantly, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [4].

Core Insights - Consumption is a key driver of economic growth and reflects the needs of people's quality of life. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Sichuan has focused on building the "Shu Li An Yi" brand, achieving an average annual consumption growth of 7.4%, surpassing the national average by 2 percentage points, and ranking fifth in the country in total consumption [1] Policy Precision - The "old-for-new" program is crucial for activating the stock market and stimulating incremental demand. Sichuan has established a "home appliance old-for-new information system" and an "automobile replacement service platform," leading to a total of 13.19 million units replaced since 2025, generating over 132.7 billion yuan in consumption [2] Service Consumption Expansion - In 2024, the share of dining revenue in total retail sales reached 14%, exceeding the national average by 2.4 percentage points. Sichuan has introduced the "Sichuan Cuisine Promotion Regulation" to stabilize the dining industry and has established a global Sichuan cuisine promotion center [5][6] Digital Transformation - Digital transformation has injected new momentum into consumption, with online retail sales growing at an average annual rate of 10.6% and live e-commerce sales exceeding 15%. Sichuan has implemented the "Jiao Shang You Gong" model, enhancing the flow of agricultural products to urban areas and industrial goods to rural households [12][14] Housing Consumption Optimization - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," Sichuan sold 420 million square meters of commercial housing, with a total of 398.3 billion yuan withdrawn from housing provident funds to support housing consumption. The province has also established a multi-tiered system for affordable housing, building 367,000 units of guaranteed housing [15][16]

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The domestic commodity market is experiencing a "stable yet declining" trend at the beginning of 2024, largely due to the long-term impacts of the pandemic, which has led to reduced consumer spending and increased inventory pressure on production companies [1] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since 2022, with second and third-tier cities like Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang being the first to feel the impact, followed by first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2023. It is expected that both new and second-hand housing prices will continue to decline into 2025 [3] Group 2: Automotive Market - A prolonged price war is ongoing in the automotive market, with numerous domestic and international brands participating in aggressive price cuts. Mid-range vehicles have seen price reductions of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, while luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW have also joined the discounting trend, with reductions reaching several hundred thousand yuan [5] - Factors contributing to the decline in automotive prices include postponed purchases due to reduced household incomes, the rapid development of electric vehicles impacting traditional fuel car sales, and increased competition from tech companies like Huawei and Xiaomi entering the automotive sector [5] Group 3: Home Appliance Market - The home appliance market is witnessing a price drop, with products like televisions, refrigerators, and air conditioners seeing reductions of 300 to 500 yuan. This is an opportune time for consumers to purchase small appliances [7] - The decline in prices is attributed to several factors, including reduced household incomes leading consumers to extend the lifespan of existing appliances, rapid product turnover resulting in inventory buildup, and increased competition from tech companies entering the home appliance market [7] Group 4: Tourism Market - The tourism industry is also experiencing a downward trend in overall price levels, with many tourist attractions reducing prices to attract visitors and revitalize the market [7] - Historically, the tourism market faced high costs for tickets, accommodation, and dining, which deterred many potential tourists. The current price reductions aim to address these issues and stimulate demand [7]