证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 10 13 年 月 日 固定收益定期 地产销售再回落——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 128.1 点（前值为 128.0 点），当周同比 增加 5.9 点（前值为增加 5.8 点），同比增幅扩大。利率债多空信号不 变，信号因子为 5.0%（前值为 5.0%）。 生产方面，工业生产高频指数为 127.3，前值为 127.2，当周同比增加 5.5 点（前值为增加 5.4 点），同比增幅扩大。 总需求方面，商品房销售高频指数为 42.3，前值为 42.4，当周同比下 降 6.1 点（前值为下降 6.2 点），同比降幅收窄；基建投资高频指数为 121.8，前值为 121.5，当周同比增加 8.1 点（前值为增加 7.3 点）， 同比增幅扩大；出口高频指数为 143.7，前值为 143.7，当周同比增加 1.6 点（前值为增加 1.8 点），同比增幅收窄；消费高频指数为 120.6， 前值为 120.5，当周同比增加 3.6 点（前值为增加 3.5 点），同比增幅 扩大。 物价方面，CPI 月环比预测为 0.2%（（前值 0.2%）；P ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-10-13 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《去杠杆的国际经验与资产表现—— 债务周期专题之二 20251009》 - 2025.10.09 固收周报 物价边际走低，假期消费稳中有升 ——高频数据跟踪 20251012 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产季节性回落，焦炉、高炉、PTA、 轮胎开工率均下降，PX 开工率上行。第二，物价整体走弱，原油、铜、 锌、农产品价格下行，焦煤、螺纹钢小幅上涨。第三，三十城商品房 成交面积回落，百城土地供应面积持续增长。第四，假期消费稳中有 升，居民出行消费热度不减，国内旅游出行人次、总花费、跨区域人 员流动同比均增长，电影票房同比降幅较大。短期重点关注十月全会 及十五五规划增量政策、中美贸易政策以及房地产恢复情况影响。 生产：假期影响，热度整体回落 10 月 10 日当周，焦炉产能利用率较节前下降 ...

10月11日，中国住房和城乡建设部部长倪虹同三位副部长出席国务院新闻办公室举行的"高质量完成'十 四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。会上传递出中国房地产市场发展转型的新趋势和新信号。 "十四五"时期，恰逢中国城市发展从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段，房地产业发展 也从旧模式向新模式转型，既需要平稳过渡，也需为新的发展阶段"探路"。此间，已有一些新变化开始 发生。 其一，"存量"开始唱主角。一方面，新房和二手房的销售规模比重正在发生历史性转变。住房和城乡建 设部副部长董建国当日表示，中国存量住房市场规模持续扩大，目前，全国有15个省(区、市)二手住宅 交易量超过新房。这意味着约一半的省份二手房交易已成当地楼市"主力军"，仅从新房销售等指标出发 已无法全面评估市场发展形势。 其四，"好房子"建设按下"加速键"。今年，"好房子"首次被写入政府工作报告。倪虹此番进一步明确 了"好房子"标准，表示要从好标准、好设计、好材料、好建造、好运维五方面推动"好房子"建设。他也 表示，"好房子"的范围不仅局限于商品房，也包括保障房；不仅要将新房子建成"好房子"，还要将老房 子改造成"好房子"。 资讯编辑：周小燕 02 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing stock and quality [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The "stock" market is becoming dominant, with 15 provinces reporting that second-hand housing transactions have surpassed new housing sales, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - The renovation and upgrading of existing housing stock is becoming a crucial source of housing supply, with over 2,387 urban village renovation projects and 2.3 million housing units constructed for resettlement during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2: Sales Dynamics - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, reflecting deeper reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems. In the first eight months of this year, existing home sales grew by 11.7% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales fell by 11.8% [2] - Existing home sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales area in the first eight months, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Group 3: Resource Allocation - The interconnection of "people, housing, land, and finance" is key to the transformation of the real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will guide local governments to determine housing demand based on population changes and to allocate land and financial resources accordingly [2][3] Group 4: Quality Housing Initiatives - The concept of "good housing" has been emphasized in government reports, with standards for "good housing" defined in terms of design, materials, construction, and maintenance. This initiative aims to improve both new and existing housing [3]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 12 Oct 2025 中国宏观 China Macro "反内卷"的路径选择与需求侧机遇 Path Selection for "Anti-Involution" and Demand-Side Opportunities Shengzu Wang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA 本文系统回顾了 2015 年重工业供给侧改革，并对"反内卷"做出展望。"反内卷"未来根据市场化程度的不同有两条路径，需求侧 持续发力，建议关注相关机会。 1、2015 年供给侧改革： sz.wang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) ②若依赖市场化竞争来实现产能出清，或需要较长时间，这种情况下预计主要推动力为行业自律协会的号召，政策方面主要依 靠减少政府补助。短期内 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251012 逆周期调控的增量举措渐行渐近 2025 年 10 月 12 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ ELI 指数：截至 2025 年 10 月 12 日，本周 ELI 指数为-0.64%，较上周 回落 0.20 个百分点。预计 9 月新增贷款或季节性回升、关注财政和货 币"稳增长"增量政策。9 月份作为季末月，新增贷款或阶段性摆脱低 景气度，在季节性"大月"冲量季末时点的贷款规模，2022 年至 2024 年 9 月份贷款平均增长 2.12 万亿，2024 年 9 月在淡化规模情结的政策 导向下，仅新增 1.59 万亿，我们预计 2025 年 9 月新增贷款或小幅同比 多增，且由于政府债融资度过发行高峰，社融增速或继续小幅回落，具 体来看：（1）9 月票据利率稳中有升，从国股银票转贴现利率看，9 月 份不同期限票据贴现利率月度均值均小幅抬升，3 个月期票据利率均值 环比回升 28bps 至 1.28%，6 个月期票据利率均值环比回升 14bps 至 0.81%，9 月末一度出现票据利率高于同期限同业存单利率 ...

| 排名 | 企业名称 | 销售额 (亿元) | 排名 | 销售面积 企业名称 (万m2) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 交润量报 | 115.0 | 1 | 成都轨道城市 55.9 | | 2 | 中国铁建地产C | 111.4 | 2 | 龙湖集团 50.1 | | | 成都轨道城市 | 103.1 | ર | 华润置地 49.9 | | 4 | 保利发展 | 85.7 | | 中国铁建地产 49.3 | | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 69.2 | 5 | 保利发展 412 | | 6 | 龙湖集团 | 66.5 | 6 | 29.2 万科 | | 7 | 成都城投置地S | 60.9 | 7 | 天投开发 28.5 | | | 润达丰滨江 | 58.9 | 8 | 27.1 兴城人居 | | 9 | 华发股份 | 55 | | 成都城投置地 26.4 | | 10 | 建发房产 | 55.0 | 10 | 招商蛇口 23.6 | | 11 | 天投开发 | 50.1 | 11 | 20.6 建发房产 | | 12 | 兴城人居 FIS | 46.8 | 12 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，9月经济总体平稳运行，内需在"金九银十"旺季的带动下边 际回暖，但各行业表现冷热不均。供给侧治理与产业升级先行见效，对应上游资源品与新兴制造业、高 端装备制造业景气度先行占优；需求侧刺激与消费信心修复滞后使得传统原材料、消费板块"旺季不 旺"。展望后续，若财政支出加速、更多稳地产&促消费的需求侧配套支持政策能够落地，则传统原材 料、消费板块景气度有望回暖，行业间分化格局趋于收敛。反之，上游资源品阶段性占优的格局可能持 续。与此同时，受益于国内产业升级、海外制造业修复的制造业方向有望维持较高景气。 国金证券主要观点如下： 9月行业信息总结 回顾9月产销旺季中各行业景气度的变动，整体上旺季氛围仍在，行业间表现分化。其中，上游资源 品、中游新兴&高端设备制造业，旺季成色较浓。相较而言，上游原材料、下游消费板块旺季成色不 足。具体来看：1）上游资源与原材料行业——①上游资源品："反内卷"政策推进与供给约束下煤炭、 工业金属旺季供给收缩、需求增加，价格延续上行，旺季成色最浓。②上游原材料：钢铁、建材在传统 投资链条景气度低位，旺季改善有限。2）中游制造环节——新兴制造业、高端装备 ...

一、土地市场 本地市场：10月2日-10月8日，成都暂无土地交易。 二、成交数据 成都商品房成交： | | | 本周成都商品房成交数据 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (10月2日-10月8日) | | | 日期 | 区域 | 住宅套数 | 住宅面积 | | | | (套) | ( m2 ) | | 10月2日 | 中心城区 | 27 | 3700. 71 | | | 郊区新城 | 8 | 794. 75 | | | 全市 | 35 | 4495. 46 | | 10月3日 | 中心城区 | 25 | 3148. 47 | | | 郊区新城 | 2 | 223. 90 | | | 全市 | 27 | 3372. 37 | | 10月4日 | 中心城区 | 1 | 117. 39 | | | 郊区新城 | 6 | 1016. 71 | | | 全市 | 7 | 1134.10 | | 10月5日 | 中心城区 | 9 | 1194. 21 | | | 郊区新城 | 0 | 0 | | | 全市 | 9 | 1194. 21 | | 10月6日 | 中心城区 | 9 | 1 ...