Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7][51]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2]. - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of new homes in 44 major cities is approximately 20,000 units, showing a 23% increase month-on-month (excluding the Spring Festival effect), which is higher than the 13% increase in 2024 but lower than the 24% increase in 2023 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15]. Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16]. - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure [23]. Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition and immediate construction" model, Fuzhou's new housing provident fund regulations, and Hainan's increase in maximum loan limits for new self-occupied housing [13][21]. - Nanjing has introduced a government subsidy program to promote housing consumption through "old-for-new" exchanges [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), and others [3][51]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in real estate intermediary platforms like Beike-W (02423) that will benefit from policy support and increased market activity [3][51].