Workflow
房地产政策预期升温
icon
Search documents
地产行业周报:政策预期持续升温,板块风险收益比提升
Ping An Securities· 2025-04-20 13:25
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Policy expectations are rising, enhancing the risk-reward ratio for the sector. The Prime Minister emphasized the need for new support measures during a recent survey in Beijing, coinciding with the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April. The report suggests that the short-term investment risk-reward ratio for the sector is improving due to potential policy enhancements aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the real estate market [2][3] - The report estimates that the potential demand for residential properties in China from 2025 to 2030 is around 876 million square meters, with 2024 sales expected to be 810 million square meters, indicating a significant gap. The promotion of "good houses" is expected to accelerate the release of improvement and replacement demand [2] - Short-term policy and fundamental factors are expected to resonate positively, while the long-term product iteration presents new opportunities. Recommended stocks include companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [2] Summary by Sections Policy Environment Monitoring - The Prime Minister highlighted the significant development space in China's real estate market. Recent new policies in cities like Wuxi, Qingdao, and Suzhou aim to stimulate housing demand and support families with multiple children [6] Market Operation Monitoring - Transaction volume remains stable, with new home sales in 50 key cities at 14,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week. The average daily sales for new homes in April show a year-on-year decline of 22.2% [9][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 3.4% increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.59%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 35.72, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.26, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [23][29]