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樊纲:大家习惯过去挣钱容易,其实大多国家都曾面临经济波动
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-13 10:55
Core Insights - The current economic situation in China is characterized by anxiety and pessimism despite a 5% economic growth, as highlighted by the vice president of the China Economic System Reform Research Association, Fan Gang [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - China's economy is facing a significant issue of insufficient demand, with consumer spending accounting for approximately 65% of GDP, but only 40% when excluding government consumption [3] - Compared to the U.S. at 80% and other developing countries like India at 60-70%, China's resident consumption is notably low, indicating a serious demand deficiency [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Individual consumption is primarily determined by income, particularly disposable income; lower disposable income leads to reduced consumption [5] - The "silver economy," referring to the elderly population, has emerged as a significant consumer group, with their participation in social security contributing to increased consumption [5] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - There is an oversupply in physical goods consumption, while service consumption, especially in healthcare, wellness, entertainment, fashion, and tourism, remains underdeveloped and presents growth opportunities [6] - The Chinese government has initiated measures to stimulate consumption, viewing it as a strategic macroeconomic decision, which includes subsidies for enterprises and supply-side support [6] - Despite current challenges, China's economic development is still in its early stages, with substantial growth potential if appropriate policies are implemented [6]