Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing a significant increase of 8% [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China rose by 2.9% year-on-year in October, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in communication and cultural office supplies, which saw increases of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing the previous month's decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking a continuous increase over six months [2] - The improvement in price data is attributed to macroeconomic policy effects and a balanced supply-demand relationship, indicating a comprehensive enhancement in macroeconomic conditions and industry prosperity [2] Policy Measures - Local governments have allocated 500 billion yuan to enhance fiscal capacity and expand effective investment, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools supporting over 2,300 projects, totaling approximately 7 trillion yuan in investment, focusing on digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The recent monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and balancing short-term growth stabilization with long-term structural adjustments, reflecting a commitment to support the real economy [3]

责任编辑：何俊熹 他指出，新质生产力潜力很大，但如果面临的需求不足，特别是消费需求不足这个问题不能解决的话， 新质生产力可能发展会受到很大的限制。 11月13日消息，在今天举行的第十六届财新峰会"新质生产力：科技创新如何持续蓄力？"专题会议上， 第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任，国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦表示，经济增长可以从两个 维度来看，一个是高度，一个是宽度，高度就是搞创新、搞体制改革，其实是经济增长的动能空间，往 上的空间，再一个就是宽度，宽度就是需求，非常关键，因为高度决定了经济能够增长多少，但宽度决 定了实际能够增长多少。 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 白丽斐）国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦13日在第十六届财新峰会上 表示，发展新质生产力要创造好的宏观环境。他认为，经济增长可以从高度和宽度两个维度来看，高度 是指通过创新和体制改革提升经济增长往上的空间；宽度是需求，不同的社会群体收入所得构成了全社 会的总需求。如果需求不足，特别是消费需求不足的问题不能解决的话，新质生产力发展可能会受到很 大限制。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Core Viewpoint - UPC's 3Q25 net profit reached RMB726 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, but slightly below expectations [1] - The company anticipates challenges in the beverage sector due to industry destocking, while maintaining long-term sales and profitability guidance [1][3] Financial Performance - 3Q25 net profit was RMB726 million, an increase of 8.4% year-over-year, with 9M25 net profit totaling RMB2,013 million, up 23.1% year-over-year [1] - Sales momentum softened in 3Q25, with food sales increasing at a low-single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year, while beverage sales decreased at a low-single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage [2] Sales Outlook - Management maintains a long-term sales growth target of 6%-8% year-over-year, expecting gross profit margin to improve in 2025-26 due to product mix enhancement and sales leveraging [3] - The OEM business continues to show double-digit year-over-year growth, although overall sales are expected to weaken in October due to soft demand and competition [2] Strategic Initiatives - UPC's competitive advantage lies in its product matrix and continuous innovation, with stable point-of-sale coverage and a focus on structural optimization [3] - The total number of commercial refrigerators increased by 150,000 by 3Q25, indicating a commitment to maintaining this strategy [3] Valuation and Investment Perspective - The company revised down its top- and bottom-line forecasts for 2025-27 by 2%-5% and 3%-6% respectively, reflecting caution regarding beverage sales growth [4] - The forecasted EPS growth rate is now projected at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2024 to 2027, down from 14.8% [4] - The company maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$10.40, representing a P/E ratio of 18.9x for 2025 and 17.0x for 2026, alongside a dividend yield of 6%-7% [5]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of China's e-commerce and food delivery sectors has significantly boosted the national economy, with e-commerce transactions reaching 43.8 trillion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and the food delivery market size hitting 1.1 trillion yuan, growing by 18.6% [1] - The rise of e-commerce and food delivery has posed unprecedented challenges to traditional brick-and-mortar stores, which saw a decline in revenue to 38.1 trillion yuan in 2022, down 3.9% year-on-year, raising widespread concern [1] Group 1 - Some voices suggest canceling food delivery and closing e-commerce to revive traditional markets, but this approach may backfire and lead to economic decline and increased unemployment [2] - The food delivery and e-commerce sectors employ millions, with 4 million in food delivery and 60 million in e-commerce in 2022, making them crucial for job creation [3] - The decline in brick-and-mortar sales is not solely due to e-commerce competition; post-pandemic consumer demand has decreased, and physical stores face intense competition and rising rental costs [5] Group 2 - Food delivery has become a vital revenue source for restaurants, with about one-third of their sales coming from delivery orders, meaning that canceling food delivery could further weaken their profitability [5] - Consumer reliance on food delivery and e-commerce has increased post-pandemic, and eliminating these services would cause significant inconvenience for those unable to cook, such as young people and the elderly [7] - To restore market vitality, a comprehensive approach is needed, focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of physical stores, improving the consumer environment, and stimulating demand rather than resorting to blanket cancellations of food delivery and e-commerce [7]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased for the fifth consecutive month, with a year-on-year rise of 1% in September, marking the first time in 19 months that the increase has returned to 1% [2] - The narrow gap between narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) has shrunk to 1.2 percentage points, the lowest this year, indicating improved business activity and personal investment demand [3] - The logistics industry has maintained a positive outlook, with the logistics industry prosperity index at 51.2% in September, reflecting a continuous demand for logistics services [4] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Spending - The rise in core CPI suggests accelerated consumer demand, particularly in quality and upgraded consumption, with notable price increases in sectors such as arts and crafts (14.7%), sports equipment (4%), and nutritional foods (1.8%) [2] - E-commerce logistics have shown strong demand, with the e-commerce logistics index reaching a new high of 112.7 points in September, driven by seasonal consumption and holiday factors [5][6] - The overall consumer market remains stable, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption showing positive effects [2] Group 3: Financial Sector and Lending - Corporate loans have shown a positive growth trend, particularly in key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2% in medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector [3] - Personal credit demand has rebounded, supported by lower interest costs and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities, leading to a 7% year-on-year increase in housing transaction volume in September [3] - Financial mechanisms are expected to play a crucial role in stimulating effective demand in the real economy through interest rate adjustments and coordinated market rates [3]

Core Insights - The China E-commerce Logistics Index for September reached a new high of 112.7 points, increasing by 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating sustained growth in e-commerce logistics [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics was 132.5 points, up by 1.1 points month-on-month, with the central region showing the highest increase of 3.5 points [1] - The rural e-commerce logistics business volume index also rose to 132.7 points, marking a 1.0 point increase, with the western region experiencing the highest growth of 2.3 points [3] Demand and Economic Activity - The continuous rise in the e-commerce logistics index reflects growing demand around the e-commerce sector and indicates improving economic vitality [1] - Factors contributing to demand growth include the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday preparations, seasonal consumption changes, and back-to-school shopping [1] - Popular online consumption categories included mooncakes, cultural products, and travel-related items, with significant sales in automotive supplies and holiday gifts [1] Technological and Operational Improvements - E-commerce logistics companies are enhancing their capabilities through increased transport capacity, technological advancements, and improved services, leading to a steady rise in supply willingness and capacity [5] - Key performance indicators such as logistics timeliness, fulfillment rate, satisfaction rate, and personnel index have all shown improvement, with the satisfaction rate reaching a high of 103 points for the first time this year [5] - Cost indices have decreased, reaching the lowest level since 2023, as companies implement measures like demand forecasting and unmanned delivery to reduce costs and increase efficiency [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to boost e-commerce logistics demand, while the pre-promotion activities for the "Double Eleven" shopping festival may further enhance growth in October [5]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, recommend buying on dips; hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds and maintain a wait - and - see approach [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range - trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Advise cautious trading before holidays for copper; suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend a wait - and - see approach or shorting on rallies for nickel; adopt a range - trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Expect PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol to trade sideways; anticipate wide - range fluctuations for polyolefins; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to trade sideways; anticipate narrow - range fluctuations for PTA; expect apples to trend slightly upwards and jujubes to trend slightly downwards [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommend shorting on rallies for pigs and eggs; expect wide - range fluctuations for corn; anticipate range - bound oscillations for soybean meal; expect oils to trend slightly upwards [1][38][45] Core Views - The overall futures market presents a complex situation with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors. Positive factors such as monetary policy easing, industry growth, and technological breakthroughs support the stock index market, while uncertainties in factors like macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade impact other sectors [1][5][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With the support of positive factors such as moderately loose monetary policy, stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry, and breakthroughs in the solid - state battery field, the market was active on Monday. The A - share market has been in a sideways trend since September, showing a technology - driven structural market. In the medium term, factors like Fed rate cuts, improved Sino - US relations, and the prosperity of emerging sectors are expected to drive the market upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields rose on Monday, and the curve steepened. The spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds widened. The central bank emphasized policy implementation in the third - quarter meeting minutes, and there is uncertainty about the implementation of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see approach [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the procurement rhythm has accelerated. It is expected to trade sideways [7] - **Rebar**: On Monday, rebar futures prices were weak. The current valuation is low, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the demand in October. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. Spot prices increased, and inventories decreased. The demand for real - estate construction in October provides weak support, and there are positive expectations from domestic macro - news and environmental policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident has led to a long - term increase in the copper price center. In the short term, the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand has entered the peak season, and inventories have decreased. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are recovering. It is recommended to trade within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased, and precious metals are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade within a range [17][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may decline, and the overall supply - demand situation is still weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream inventory has increased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade weakly within a range [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the market trading is light before the holiday. It is expected to trade sideways [27] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and arbitrage opportunities [28] - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the main downstream industry has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be supported in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has increased, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade within a range, and the LP spread is expected to widen [30] - **Soda Ash**: The price has been driven up by glass, and the inventory has decreased. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an arbitrage strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the current spot market is firm, but there is pressure on future prices. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the international oil price has risen. The cost and supply - demand relationship are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to trend slightly upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as terminal market transactions and weather [36] - **Jujubes**: The growth of jujubes in Xinjiang shows differences, and the market is currently quiet. It is expected to rebound after a decline [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply is expected to increase in the short and medium terms. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term egg price is under pressure, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and environmental policies [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply of new crops is expected to ease the tight supply situation of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to the listing rhythm of new crops [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips [44][45] - **Oils**: The negative impact of the Argentine tariff event has ended. The palm oil inventory is expected to slow down its accumulation, and there are supply gaps in domestic rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.484 billion yuan, a decline of 1.84% year-on-year, and net profit was 392 million yuan, down 12.70% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company experienced a slight increase in sales volume in H1 2025, reaching 1.8008 million kiloliters, up 0.95% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 1.2% to 4,908 yuan per kiloliter. The cost per ton also saw a reduction of 2.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s profitability was impacted by an increase in the income tax rate, which rose by 7.41 percentage points to 27.26% year-on-year in H1 2025. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.79%, down 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 0.7%, 2.4%, and 2.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 14.7 billion, 15.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 8.2%, 4.5%, and 5.0% during the same period, reaching 1.21 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts primarily due to weak dining consumption [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 14.814 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.78% [4]. - The report provides various financial ratios, including a projected P/E ratio of 21.95 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.30 for the same year [4].