Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic growth is the demand problem, which has been prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [2] - The overall economic performance in China shows resilience and stability, but the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand remains a significant challenge [2] - The main contradiction in economic operation is shifting from the supply side to the demand side, necessitating a focus on resolving demand issues for sustainable economic development [2] Group 2 - The acceleration of domestic demand expansion policies has led to positive outcomes, but consumption demand is constrained by both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural factors [3] - Short-term measures should include strong stimulus policies to break negative cycles, while long-term strategies must address deep-rooted issues to ensure stable growth [3] - The shift in consumer behavior from goods to services highlights the need for increased support in service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and elder care [3] Group 3 - Investment remains crucial alongside consumption, as effective investment is necessary to meet consumption demands and expand consumption space [4] - There is significant potential for effective investment, particularly in urban development and addressing social welfare gaps [4] - The decline in private and foreign investment underscores the need for policy innovation and improved business environments to boost investor confidence [5][6]

张军扩指出，今年以来，我国经济总体上继续呈现较强韧性和平稳运行态势，与此同时我们也看到，经 济供强需弱的问题依然比较突出。 由三亚市人民政府主办，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》、三亚中央商务区管理局、三亚经济研 究院承办的"三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"12月27日在海南三亚举行，主题为"海南自 贸港未来定位及三亚新机遇"。 12月27日，第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩 在"三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"上表示，需求问题成为影响我国经济持续稳定增长 的最具决定性的因素，扩大内需连续两年位列经济工作之首。 什么是影响"十五五"经济持续高质量发展的关键性、决定性因素呢？ 张军扩认为，随着我国制造业能力持续增强，经济运行的主要矛盾已逐步从供给侧转向需求侧。只有解 决好需求问题、实现供需关系相对宽松，经济循环才能顺畅，整体经济才能获得稳定持续的发展。 "只有在整体经济增长比较稳定可持续的条件之下，我们所说的科技创新、绿色转型、共同富裕、民生 改善、风险化解以及应对外部挑战等其他方面的问题解决才能具有更牢固的基础。"张军扩进一步表 示。 ...

记者 辛圆 其次是城乡收入差距。蔡昉表示，该差距自2008年起快速缩小，这得益于脱贫攻坚和各项惠农政策。但目前城乡收入比仍在2.3—2.4左右，在国际上仍属较 高水平。研究表明，城乡收入比降至2以下是相对合理的标准。 再次是收入分配结构。"我们强调要提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重、提高居民收入在国民总收入中的比重。自2008、2009年以来，这两个比重均有所回 升，但尚未恢复到九十年代初期的历史较好水平，也普遍低于多数OECD国家。这说明我们仍有提升潜力，需进一步优化分配结构。"蔡昉说。 "国际经验表明，从中等收入向高收入阶段迈进时，消费率需显著提升约20个百分点。我国消费率目前约为39%，与更高发展阶段的要求存在差距。因此， 提高收入水平、改善收入分配，是突破制约、支撑未来经济发展的关键。"他说。 蔡昉提到，要理解当前中国收入分配状况与现代化目标之间的距离，可以从三个关键指标入手。 首先看总体收入差距。蔡昉表示，基尼系数是衡量收入差距的常用指标，数值在0到1之间，越高代表差距越大。一般认为，0.4是收入分配相对合理的阈 值。因此，应设定明确的收入分配改善目标：争取在"十五五"期间显著缩小差距，到2035年努 ...

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026：预 测与战略 · 年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定 力"。 从现在到2035年，我们面临双重跨越：一是近期即将跨越高收入门槛（人均GDP达到14000美元以 上），二是到2035年要基本实现社会主义现代化，人均GDP在2020年基础上翻一番、超过2万美元。人 均GDP的赶超过程，必须伴随消费率的同步显著提升，这将是"惊险的一跃"，也是关键的一跃。 12月18日， 第十三届全国人大常委，中国社会科学院学部委员、原副院长蔡昉在发言中表示"分好蛋 糕"有助于"做大蛋糕"，改善收入分配是打破当前消费需求制约、推动经济增长的关键。 第十三届全国人大常委，中国社会科学院学部委员、原副院长 蔡昉 蔡昉谈到，当前，消费需求已成为经济增长的关键制约，而消费水平取决于收入和收入分配状况。国际 经验表明，从中等收入向高收入阶段迈进时，消费率需显著提升约20个百分点。我国消费率目前约为 39%，与更高发展阶段的要求存在差距。因此，提高收入水平、改善收入分配，是突破制约、支撑未来 经济 ...

12月15日，轮船停泊在河北省唐山港京唐港区集装箱码头进行装卸作业。 刘满仓摄（人民视觉） "11月份，更加积极有为的宏观政策持续显效，全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，着力做强国内大循 环，生产供给持续增长，市场销售继续扩大，货物进出口增长加快，就业物价总体稳定，高质量发展扎 实推进，国民经济延续了稳中有进的发展态势。"12月15日，在国务院新闻办发布会上，国家统计局新 闻发言人付凌晖介绍了今年11月份国民经济运行情况。 生产增势平稳，市场销售扩大 11月份，国民经济运行有哪些亮点和积极变化？ 付凌晖介绍，11月份，生产增势平稳。工业生产稳定增长。规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%， 增速和上月基本持平。产业升级发展带动下，技术含量和附加值较高的装备制造业快速发展。装备制造 业增加值同比增长7.7%，继续快于全部规模以上工业增长，对规模以上工业增加值增长的贡献率达到 59.4%。 市场销售扩大。商品销售持续增长。11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，居民消费品质 提升，部分升级类商品销售较快增长。11月份，限额以上商品零售额中化妆品类和金银珠宝类零售额分 别增长6.1%和8.5%。服务零售较快增长。居民文 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a growth rate increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Despite the low CPI growth throughout the year, the positive signal is that both October and November saw positive year-on-year CPI growth, with November's core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% [2][3] Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI growth has been low overall this year, with six months experiencing negative year-on-year growth, leading to an average CPI that is flat compared to the previous year [2] - The government's target for CPI growth this year is set at around 2%, which is lower than the previous four years' target of around 3% and the lowest since 2004 [5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in food prices is a significant factor contributing to the rise in CPI for November, with seasonal price increases playing a role [3] - The current economic environment shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with supply being forced to contract in response to shrinking demand, leading to a cycle of economic slowdown [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's upward trend indicates improving domestic consumption demand, the foundation for sustained improvement remains fragile, requiring ongoing policy support [4] - The adjustment of the CPI growth target to around 2% reflects a realistic approach given the current economic conditions, aiming to avoid deflation [5]

研究报告 Research Report 2 Dec 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 10 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，消费需求结构性改善 Inflation Moderate and Differentiated; Consumption Structurally Improving [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 9 月跟踪报告：区域经济延续复苏，消费板块普遍跑赢指 数 Regional economies recovered, and consumption beat the index. (3 Nov 2025) 80 100 120 140 160 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 HAI Southeast Asia Staples ...

数据引发市场对印度经济增长动能持续性的担忧，尽管此前截至9月的季度经济增速超预期，制造业和 消费需求能否在外部压力下保持韧性成为焦点。 印度10月工业产出增速急剧放缓至0.4%，创下14个月以来最低水平，凸显这一亚洲第三大经济体正面 临明显的增长压力。 这一疲弱数据出现在关键时点。10月恰逢印度政府推出商品及服务税（GST）削减措施以刺激国内消 费，并应对美国对印度商品加征50%关税的冲击。分析师预计，强劲的消费需求将在一定程度上抵消出 口疲软的负面影响。 三大核心行业全面放缓 10月工业生产数据全面恶化。 数据显示，制造业虽然保持正增长，但1.8%的增速较9月的4.8%大幅回落。采矿业和电力生产则双双陷 入负增长，分别下滑1.8%和6.9%。 IIP数据追踪工业产品篮子的短期产出变化。钢铁、水泥、电力和化肥等八大核心行业占该指数权重的 40%。 12月1日，印度统计和计划执行部公布的工业生产指数（IIP）数据显示，10月增速不仅远低于9月的 4%，也低于经济学家预期的3.1%。 制造业产出增速从9月的4.8%降至1.8%，而采矿业和电力生产则分别下降1.8%和6.9%。官方将增长放缓 归因于排灯节等节庆假期 ...

Core Insights - The average nominal salary in Kyrgyzstan for the first nine months of 2025 reached 42,757 som (approximately 491 USD), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - After adjusting for inflation, the real wage growth was reported at 10.9% [1] - Significant salary increases were observed in sectors such as real estate, construction, administrative and support services, and professional technical services [1] - The growth in nominal and real incomes is supporting consumer demand while also contributing to rising inflationary pressures [1]