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保利发展(600048):高基数下业绩明显下滑,投资强度有所修复
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance due to a high base effect, with a notable drop in revenue and profit margins [7] - Despite the downturn, the company remains the industry leader in sales, with a focus on optimizing land reserves and investment in core first and second-tier cities [7] - The successful issuance of convertible bonds at a low interest rate indicates strong investor confidence in the company's recovery potential [7] - The report anticipates improved market conditions for quality real estate firms post-industry consolidation, suggesting potential for growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, total revenue is projected at 280.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.128 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 2.5% [6][8] - The company reported a 16.1% decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, with a net profit drop of 63.2% compared to the previous year [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 14.3% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [6][8]