证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 3 周） 首开集团发行 7.5 亿私募债，1 月至今 11 城 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比增长 19% 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,199.78 | 0.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,699.32 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.7% | 7.2% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the real estate industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [38]. Core Insights - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 primary industry sectors [7][12]. - New home transactions increased by 10% week-on-week, but year-on-year, new home sales decreased by 34% [18][19]. - The report highlights the need for developers to focus on high-precision land acquisition to ensure asset yield and suggests that regional deepening firms are better suited for the current market conditions [31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months was -11.1%, 5.3%, and -11.0%, respectively [2]. Policy News - Sichuan Province aims to enhance housing quality and promote the "Chuanju Good House" initiative as part of its 15th Five-Year Plan [14][15]. - Shandong Province introduced guidelines to support housing "old-for-new" exchanges to stimulate market activity [14][16]. Sales Data - In the 50th week, new home sales in 20 cities totaled 223 million square meters, with a daily average of 31.9 million square meters, reflecting a 10% increase week-on-week but a 34% decrease year-on-year [19][22]. - The total sales area for new homes from the beginning of the year to date is 96.76 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [19][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances this week were from local state-owned enterprises, with Financial Street issuing the largest scale of 81 billion yuan [27][28]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests three directions for finding alpha in the real estate sector: focusing on developers with high land acquisition precision, investing in leading shopping centers, and targeting leading real estate agencies [31].