Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent mortgage rate cuts align with expectations, but the impact on housing sales may require cautious evaluation due to trade tariff pressures [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious industry outlook and recommends a defensive strategy, focusing on high-quality state-owned enterprises with good growth prospects [1] - Recommended stocks include consumer beneficiaries like China Resources Land (CR Land) and China Resources Mixc, as well as high dividend yield stocks such as C&D International Investment Group and Greentown Management [1] Group 2 - China Resources Land (01109) is expected to have a net asset value (NAV) of HKD 47.96 per share by 2025, which includes HKD 17.40 from development properties and HKD 32.72 from investment properties [1] - C&D International Group (01908) is projected to have a NAV of HKD 32.55 per share by 2025, with HKD 31.69 from development properties and HKD 1.01 from other business value [2] - Greentown Management (09979) applies a target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 times to the estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, based on comparisons with other real estate developers and management companies [2]

5 月7日会议上，中国人民银行宣布两项举措：一是将政策利率下调10个基点，推动贷款市场报价利率 (LPR)下行;二是将住房公积金贷款利率下调25个基点(首套房利率降至2.6%)。此外，国家发改委强调近 期将推出与新住房发展模式相匹配的融资体系，但未披露具体细节。 大摩称，尽管房贷利率下调符合我们及市场预期，但鉴于贸易关税压力下居民购房意愿持续减弱，这对 房屋销售的提振作用可能有限。 大摩重申，政策的出台仍将是被动反应式的。在房价出现显著且持续的下跌之前(4月房价加速下跌，为 2024年第四季度以来首次)，实质性的增量刺激政策可能不会出台。 近期，领先指标显示售楼处及中介的看房量减少，二手房挂牌量增加且价格走低，新建楼盘的去化率也 有所下降。基于此，维持谨慎态度，建议采取防御性策略，选择具有良好发展前景的优质国企。 具体推荐：一是消费受益股，如华润置地(CR Land)和华润万象生活(CR Mixc);二是高股息率股，如建发 国际投资集团(C&D)和绿城管理控股(Greentown Management)。 华润置地有限公司(1109.HK) 预计2025年每股净资产价值(NAV)为47.96港元，其中包括17 ...