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百胜中国(09987):同店销售转正,经营利润提速
China Post Securities· 2025-08-14 05:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [11][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $2.787 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with operating profit reaching $304 million, up 14% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $215 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.9%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [5][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 349.20, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,289.24 billion. The company has a total share capital of 3.69 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.21% [4][11]. Sales Performance - Same-store sales turned positive for the first time, with a 1% year-on-year increase. The company opened 336 new stores in Q2 2025, contributing 4% to revenue growth. The total number of stores reached 16,978 by the end of H1 2025 [6][10]. - The company’s takeout sales grew by 22% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of total restaurant revenue [7][9]. Profitability - The restaurant profit margin improved to 16.1%, a year-on-year increase of 60 basis points, while the operating profit margin reached a new high of 10.9%, up 100 basis points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to lower raw material costs and enhanced operational efficiency [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated at $600 to $700 million. The goal is to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, with an increasing proportion of franchise stores [10][11]. - The company is committed to innovation, including menu updates and new business models, to expand market share [10][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 4.6%, 6.3%, and 5.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profit growth is expected to be 2.2%, 11.1%, and 12.4% over the same period. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.52, $2.80, and $3.15 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][13].