扩散指数行业轮动模型

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行业轮动周报:上证强于双创调整空间不大,ETF资金持续配置金融地产与TMT方向-20251020
China Post Securities· 2025-10-20 06:07
- The diffusion index model tracks industry rotation based on momentum principles, focusing on upward trends in industry performance. It has been monitored for four years, with notable excess returns in 2021 (25% before September) and stable returns in 2022 (6.12%). However, it faced significant drawdowns in 2023 (-4.58%) and 2024 (-5.82%) due to market reversals. For October 2025, recommended industries include non-ferrous metals, banking, communication, steel, electronics, and automobiles[26][30] - The GRU factor model utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level volume and price data, aiming to capture industry rotation. It has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but struggles in long cycles and extreme market conditions. For October 2025, industries such as building materials, electric power and utilities, textiles and apparel, transportation, steel, and petrochemicals are recommended[33][36] - Diffusion index model weekly tracking shows top industries as non-ferrous metals (0.979), communication (0.931), banking (0.929), steel (0.849), electronics (0.833), and electric power equipment & new energy (0.816). Industries with the largest weekly changes include consumer services (0.271), coal (0.251), and retail trade (0.127)[27][28][29] - GRU factor weekly tracking highlights top industries as textiles and apparel (4.22), comprehensive (2.68), transportation (2.16), steel (2), electric power and utilities (1.84), and petrochemicals (1.08). Industries with the largest weekly improvements include food and beverage, electric power and utilities, and real estate[34][37] - Diffusion index model performance: weekly average return -3.42%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index -0.85%, October excess return -1.21%, year-to-date excess return 3.42%[30] - GRU factor model performance: weekly average return -1.74%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index 0.86%, October excess return 2.51%, year-to-date excess return -5.40%[36]