Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for low-position industries to rebound in the current market environment, which is characterized by structural fluctuations and a focus on risk aversion and value investing [1][6]. Industry Recommendations - The report identifies four key low-position industries with marginal improvement potential: Environmental Protection, Non-Metallic Materials, Biological Products, and Automotive [5][6]. - The storage sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with rising prices for storage chips indicating the start of a new upward cycle, supported by demand from the Sora2 release [6]. - Precious metals continue to hold strong investment value, driven by short-term interest rate expectations and long-term geopolitical risks, which are expected to support gold prices [6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for valuation recovery as previous negative factors have diminished, making it a focus for investors [6]. - The environmental protection industry benefits from favorable policies and a rebound in related sectors [6]. - Non-metallic materials are supported by supply-side policies and demand-side initiatives, such as the revitalization of Xinjiang [6]. - The biological products sector is expected to gain from new productivity policies and the recovery of the innovative pharmaceutical sector [6]. - The automotive industry is benefiting from consumer incentives and synergies within the robotics supply chain [6]. Performance Indicators - The report provides detailed performance indicators for the identified low-position industries, showing positive trends in various metrics such as PPI and production volumes [7][10]. - For example, the waste resource utilization industry shows a 5.74% increase in PPI, while the automotive sector has seen a 3.10% increase in cumulative sales [7][10]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation, highlighting the importance of identifying and investing in undervalued sectors [1][6].

The NFP release was delayed due to the government shutdown in the US, so volatility was muted across the board, as the only important economic driver published was the US services PMI, which was slightly lower than forecasted (50 instead of 51), but still indicated a positive development. Despite the absence of official data from the US labor market, investors maintain a mildly positive sentiment as private sector indicators show rather a consolidation of hiring and new payrolls, than their growth or decl ...

老李节前最后一天收盘前，咬牙加仓了某建材股，心想长假回来怎么也得涨一波吧。 结果假期刷公告看到海外对橱柜、洗手台加征50%关税的 消息，他们公司海外营收占了四成多，急得他连夜给我发消息："要不要开盘直接割肉？ " 第三种是高管组团减持。 两家消费和半导体企业，高管们凑一块儿要减掉将近3%的股份，理由清一色"个人资金需求"。 但实控人减持那个更 吓人，过去类似情况开盘跌5%都算轻的。 最后是监管问询函。 两家公司中招，一家半年报里营收和现金流对不上账，另一家吹了半年的投资项目一直没落地，被怀疑蹭热点。 虽然问 询函不等于一定有问题，但市场情绪肯定受影响。 今年假期爆出利空的九家公司，仔细看其实就四种类型。 第一种是行业政策黑天鹅，比如那家建材公司，海外关税突然加征50%，这玩意儿根 本防不住。 要么自己吞下成本压缩利润，要么涨价丢掉客户，怎么选都难受。 历史数据看国庆节后首日上涨概率有70%，但那是大盘整体表现。 个股要是撞上利空，完全是两码事。 2024年国庆后虽然指数涨了，但有些 被问询的股票连续阴跌一周多。 其实像老李这样节后踩雷的股民真不少。 长假期间A股不开盘，公司都挤在这个窗口期发敏感公告，等开盘那 ...

好 究 所 行业轮动 [F策略周报 (20250922-20250928) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年9月29日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF 名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 13.51 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (58.23%) | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid switching of main lines in the stock market in 2025, with technology leading the charge, particularly in the AI industry and related sectors [2] - The fund manager, Jin Zicai, has effectively captured the explosive opportunities in the overseas computing power sector by strategically investing in sub-sectors like optical modules and PCBs, aligning with the surge in overseas computing power demand [2][28] - Jin Zicai's investment framework prioritizes "Beta first," allowing for dynamic adjustments in portfolio structure while maintaining a focus on core themes [2][4] Group 2 - Jin Zicai has a decade of experience in industry rotation and has developed a unique three-tier analysis system that evaluates macroeconomic cycles, industry trends, and individual stocks [4] - The performance of the fund "Caitong Value Momentum Mixed A" is highlighted, with a return of 833.15% since inception and a year-to-date return of 53.78% [5][6] - The fund's asset allocation strategy combines both strategic long-term assessments and tactical short-term adjustments based on market momentum [7] Group 3 - The article details specific stock purchases and their performance during Jin Zicai's management, including significant gains in stocks like Xinyisheng and Shijia Photon [9][14] - The fund has shown a pattern of buying stocks at low points and benefiting from subsequent price increases, demonstrating Jin Zicai's ability to time the market effectively [12][21] - The fund's performance is attributed to precise industry allocation and stock selection strategies, with a focus on sectors poised for growth, particularly in technology manufacturing [15][16] Group 4 - The article notes that the fund has made strategic adjustments in response to market conditions, such as increasing exposure to computing power and technology manufacturing while reducing holdings in other sectors [15][28] - Jin Zicai's approach includes a flexible strategy that allows for quick shifts in investment focus based on industry trends and economic conditions, which has been a key factor in achieving excess returns [14][28] - The overall sentiment is that the AI computing power sector is experiencing a significant boom, with expectations for continued growth in demand and investment in the coming quarters [28]

证券研究报告 金工 节前增配大盘价值，成长内高低切 2025 年 9 月 28 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 本周观点：节前增配大盘价值，成长风格内高低切 从上周盘面来看，虽然指数箱体震荡，且大盘择时模型继续看多，但整体缩 量，表明高位板块的后续接力难度加大，且市场情绪出现明显波动——周二 全天和周三开盘红利风格显著占优，周三盘中在云栖大会利好消息催化下成 长风格重拾升势，但周五再次回到红利风格占优的局面，红利风格或已出现 止跌迹象。此外，10 年期美债利率连续两周上行合计达 10 bp，且我们预测 9 月美国 CPI 同比增速或回升至 3.2%左右——10 月美联储能否如期降息仍 然存疑。流动性环境边际收紧。结合风格择时和行业轮动模型，叠加投资者 对长假不确定性的担忧，建议节前增配大盘价值、成长风格内高低切。 A 股大盘择时模型：继续看多 A 股大盘 我们以万得全 A 指数作为 A 股大盘代理，从估值、情绪、资金、技术四个 维度对 A 股大盘进行整体方向性判断。今年以来，模型多空择时的扣费后 收益 40.98%，同期 A 股大盘涨跌幅为 23.96%，超额收益为 17.02%；上周 模型超额收益为-0.10% ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-09-28 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《指数震荡反内卷方向领涨，ETF 持续 净流入金融地产——行业轮动周报 20250921》 - 2025.09.22 《成长风格占优，小盘股活跃——中邮 因子周报 20250914》 - 2025.09.15 《金融地产获 ETF 持续净流入，连板情 绪偏修复等待合力方向——行业轮动 周报 20250914》 - 2025.09.15 《融资资金净流入电力设备及新能源， 光通信概念趋势未破——行业轮动周 报 20250907》 - 2025.09.08 《双创涨速明显提升，ETF 资金配置思 路偏补涨——行业轮动周报 20250831》 - 2025.09.01 《指数上行重返十年高位，涨幅超 10% 芯片相关 ETF 净流出较多——行业轮动 周报 20250824》 – 2025.08.25 《 ...

Group 1 - The article presents a series of reports focused on asset allocation strategies under various economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors in investment decisions [2][3] - It outlines multiple thematic reports, including those on industry rotation strategies, risk premium perspectives, and macroeconomic indicators, which are crucial for optimizing asset allocation [2][3] - The reports cover a wide range of topics, such as the impact of economic cycles on asset pricing, the effectiveness of Smart Beta strategies, and the analysis of historical patterns in interest rate cycles [2][3] Group 2 - The article highlights the significance of industry rotation strategies, detailing methods for selecting industries based on economic cycles, valuation reversals, and price momentum [3] - It discusses the application of quantitative models in industry configuration, focusing on factors like profitability and momentum as key determinants for successful industry selection [3] - The reports also explore the relationship between macroeconomic trends and industry performance, providing insights into how to capitalize on cyclical opportunities within various sectors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 25, 2025, most convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46% month - on - month, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% month - on - month. The market style favored large - cap growth stocks. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall closing price weighted average of convertible bonds was 130.63 yuan, up 0.41% from the previous day. The valuation also increased, with the 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate rising 0.29 pct [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, with 23 industries falling. In the convertible bond market, 21 industries rose [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 479.01, up 0.46% daily, down 0.09% in the past week, down 1.99% in the past month, and up 15.55% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices and major A - share indices also showed different trends in daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes [6]. - In terms of style indices, large - cap growth stocks performed well, rising 1.28% daily, while large - cap value stocks fell 0.57% daily [7]. 3.2 Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 7.7368 billion yuan, a 12.25% month - on - month decrease. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 239.1771 billion yuan, a 1.90% month - on - month increase. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.6 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased 1.82 bp to 1.88% [1]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - After excluding convertible bonds with a closing price > 150 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 50%, the 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate was 28.71%, up 0.29 pct, at the 96.90% quantile since 2019. The overall weighted average parity was 100.56, down 0.14%. The price median was 130.2, down 0.01%, at the 98.10% quantile since 2019 [15][19]. - The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds classified by stock - bond nature all increased, with the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds rising 1.15 pct [27]. 3.4 Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were Textile and Apparel (- 1.45%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (- 1.22%), and Household Appliances (- 1.07%). The top three industries with the largest increases were Media (+ 2.23%), Communication (+ 1.99%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+ 1.87%). - In the convertible bond market, the top three industries with the largest increases were Environmental Protection (+ 2.46%), Non - Ferrous Metals (+ 1.62%), and Automobile (+ 1.22%). The top three industries with the largest declines were Building Decoration (- 0.49%), Basic Chemicals (- 0.21%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 0.19%) [3][55].

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices showed mixed performance during the week of September 15-19, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% [4] - In terms of sectors, coal, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest gains, while banking, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw increased activity, with 63 new funds established, totaling 748.28 billion units issued. This included 27 bond funds, 27 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 REIT [5] - A total of 31 new funds were issued across the market, with 21 being equity funds, 4 FOF funds, 4 mixed funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Various industry-themed funds exhibited volatile and divergent performance, with TMT theme funds continuing to show a net value increase of 2.56%, while financial and real estate theme funds saw a notable decline [6] - As of September 19, 2025, the performance of different themed funds was as follows: New Energy (2.07%), National Defense and Military Industry (1.50%), Balanced Industry (0.92%), Rotation Industry (0.49%), Consumption (-0.53%), Cyclical (-1.63%), Pharmaceutical (-2.41%), and Financial Real Estate (-2.68%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of funds, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained significant inflows. Specifically, stock ETFs had a median return of 0.03% with a net inflow of 77.93 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.84% with a net inflow of 166.52 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.56% with a net inflow of 1.227 billion yuan [8] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the automotive, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors, while banking, pharmaceutical, and agriculture sectors saw reduced allocations [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - A total of 34 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 379.48 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.82 trillion yuan and 4,153 bonds issued as of September 19, 2025 [10] - The median net value changes for ESG funds were as follows: active equity funds (1.42%), passive equity index funds (0.21%), and bond ESG funds (0.04%). Funds focused on climate change, low-carbon economy, and carbon neutrality showed significant performance advantages [10]