技术变革误判风险
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我们这个时代的转折、机遇与风险
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-11 01:17
Core Insights - The current era is characterized as a significant time of opportunity rather than a bubble, with advancements in technology and societal transformation being at the forefront [1][5][6] - Three major opportunities are identified: the digital revolution, the continuation of the industrial revolution, and the formation of an online society [5][7][8] Digital Revolution - The digital revolution is divided into two phases: the material production-focused industrial revolution and the software-driven digital revolution, which are fundamentally different [5] - The wireless internet has played a crucial role in this revolution by aggregating human behavioral data, leading to the emergence of large language models and the anticipated development of "large behavior models" [6] Industrial Revolution - The industrial revolution is not over; China is currently undertaking its latter half, achieving scale in production and sales that previous nations did not fully realize [7] - The next 30 years may see overseas business revenues potentially matching China's GDP, driven by globalization and strategic choices rather than mere geographical advantages [7] Online Society - The transition from offline to online society introduces a new logic based on data, measurement, and prediction, contrasting with the cultural understanding required in offline society [8] - This shift is expected to create new opportunities and lead to the emergence of new mega-companies with trillion-dollar valuations within the next 10-15 years [8] Key Opportunities - Intelligent services that leverage AI for scalable output of human experience are highlighted as a key area for growth [9] - Globalization presents unique opportunities for China, particularly through manufacturing expansion [10] - The development of digital infrastructure is essential for the ongoing digital revolution, requiring innovative approaches beyond traditional methods [10] Risks - Misjudgment of technological changes could hinder progress, as companies may struggle to adapt to the revolutionary nature of AI [11] - The evolving global order, particularly in relation to digital trade, poses risks as traditional product-based trade structures may collapse [11] - The potential for a technology bubble, reminiscent of historical market crashes, necessitates caution in expectations for rapid advancements [12]