王煜全是海银资本创始合伙人、中国科技投资领域的代表人物之一。他长期关注前沿科技与产业变革趋势，以投资人的视角观察人工智能、生命科学、新 能源等领域的技术突破及其对社会结构的重塑。在本届HBR管理年会2025暨新增长大会上，他以《我们这个时代的转折、机遇与风险》为题，结合数十 年产业研究与投资经验，梳理从工业革命到数字革命的历史脉络，剖析AI大模型、全球化布局与线上社会的深层逻辑，阐释了为何当下不是泡沫，而是 一个伟大时代的起点。 下文来自海银资本创始合伙人王煜全在HBR管理年会2025暨新增长大会上的演讲，有删减。 数字革命中有一个重要环节被忽略了，那就是无线互联网。它不仅让人随时随地看内容，更重要的是让"人的行为数据"被聚合。PC时代是内容数字化； 互联网时代是内容上网；无线互联网时代则是"人的行为上网"。这是巨大的区别。 现在的大语言模型，是在对内容聚合后的知识和经验进行提炼，再转化为可服务的形式。而下一步将会出现"大行为模型"，它基于行为聚集的数据，能够 对人的行为进行分析与指导，提供直接的行动支持。这比内容支持更有价值，因为它直接提升人的效率和收益。 第二，工业革命没有结束，中国正在承担它的后半段。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the true revolution in Britain during the Industrial Revolution was not merely technological but fundamentally institutional, which allowed innovation to become profitable and risks to be shared and priced [7][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the mid-18th century, the combination of technological advancements, such as the steam engine, and institutional reforms, like the establishment of the Bank of England, marked the beginning of the mechanization of energy in Britain [2][3]. - By 1850, Britain dominated global coal production and textile exports, with its population and GDP experiencing significant growth [2]. Group 2: Institutional Reforms - The Glorious Revolution of 1688 established parliamentary control over taxation and legislation, fostering a trust in the government and enabling the development of a capital market [3][4]. - The introduction of the modern patent system in the 17th century allowed inventors to profit from their innovations, leading to a surge in technological advancements [4]. Group 3: Capital, Land, and Labor Mobility - The establishment of the London Stock Exchange and the implementation of the Bubble Act laid the groundwork for a regulated capital market, allowing companies to raise funds through shares [5]. - The enclosure movement privatized land, increasing agricultural efficiency and providing food for urban industrialization [5][6]. - The migration of displaced farmers to cities created a labor market, transforming workers into free wage earners and enabling the emergence of a modern economy [6]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis - The article contrasts Britain's institutional success with the stagnation in China and the Ottoman Empire, where rigid systems stifled innovation and economic growth [8][10]. - The lack of inclusive institutions in China and the Ottoman Empire led to a failure to capitalize on technological advancements, resulting in significant disparities in economic performance [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The article highlights that institutional differences manifest over time, leading to significant economic disparities, as seen in the GDP growth between Britain and the Ottoman Empire from 1500 to 1900 [12]. - The evolution of British political institutions allowed for continuous self-correction and adaptation, contributing to long-term stability and prosperity [12][16]. Group 6: Critical Reflection - While the article acknowledges the successes of Britain's institutions, it also points out the darker aspects of industrialization, such as exploitation and inequality, reminding that progress often comes at a cost [15][16].

据北京大学消息，10月24日，美国西北大学罗伯特·H·斯托茨人文科学教授乔尔·莫基尔访问北京大学。11天前，莫基尔获得2025年诺贝尔经济学 奖。 在回答关于中国经济增长的问题时，莫基尔表示，迄今为止，他认为中国在科技创新方面所走的道路是正确的。回想中国宋朝时期，就曾是全球最 先进、最发达的经济体；在他看来，这种辉煌没有理由不重现。中国拥有令人惊叹的智力资源与人才储备。"有件趣事虽不直接关乎科技，却足以 反映中国的现状：前不久在华沙举行的肖邦国际钢琴比赛中，斩获前三名的获奖者里有中国名字。它告诉我们，中国在各个领域培育人才的能力是 惊人的。我认为这一切非常值得称道，而我也乐于享受中国带来的一切，包括聆听中国人演绎的肖邦——事实上，我一直在听。"莫基尔称。 九派新闻梳理发现，莫基尔与北京大学有着良好的学术交流往来。 当天，莫基尔作题为"再探工业革命和现代经济增长的起源"的学术讲座。莫基尔重新审视了英国工业革命成为现代经济增长起点的原因，强调工业 革命的本质是"实用知识"应用，核心在于技术落地能力而非单纯发明。技能供给、制度环境与市场需求相互联动，推动英国经济形成收入提升与技 术进步的正反馈循环，助力工业革命成为 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical significance of silver trade and its impact on China's economy and civilization, highlighting how China became the ultimate destination for global silver during the 16th to 18th centuries [2][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context - The influx of silver into China was a result of Western colonial powers seeking to exchange their silver for Chinese goods, marking a significant trade imbalance [4][5]. - China's "silver standard" monetary system created a massive and stable demand for silver, making it the final destination for global silver [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Dynamics - China acted as both a "perfect consumer" and "ultimate producer," absorbing global silver and providing unparalleled luxury goods such as tea, porcelain, and silk, which the West could not match [3][4]. - The trade surplus generated from this dynamic was a reward for China's unified civilization and mature economic structure [5][7]. Group 3: Systemic Challenges - The reliance on silver trade led to a lack of urgency for internal reforms within the Qing government, creating a path dependency that hindered necessary changes [12][28]. - The eventual shift in trade dynamics, particularly after the Industrial Revolution, exposed the vulnerabilities of China's traditional agricultural and handicraft-based economy [13][29]. Group 4: Individual Narratives - The article highlights the contrasting fates of two historical figures: Wu Bingjian, the world's richest man, and Lin Zexu, a national hero, illustrating the tension between commercial interests and national sovereignty [20][21]. - Wu Bingjian's wealth was tied to the Qing dynasty's system, which ultimately became a trap, leading to his downfall as the system collapsed [10][28]. Group 5: Future Implications - The narrative suggests that a new governance system is needed to reconcile the interests of commercial capital and national sovereignty, which was not achievable in the 19th-century Qing dynasty [33].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that economic growth is driven by continuous innovation and the concept of "creative destruction," where old technologies and jobs are replaced by new ones, leading to a rapid transformation of society [2][3][6] - It highlights the importance of adapting to change and developing skills that are difficult to replace, suggesting that individuals should focus on integrating and transferring skills across different fields [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Innovation - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences recognizes the role of innovation in driving economic growth, rather than mere hard work [2][4] - The theory of "creative destruction" illustrates how new inventions replace outdated ones, such as steam engines replacing horse-drawn carriages and digital cameras replacing film [2][6] Implications for Individuals - Individuals are encouraged to move beyond merely executing tasks to mastering the use of tools like AI to enhance productivity [2] - The article suggests that understanding the reasons behind tasks is crucial for driving change, rather than just adapting to it [2][3] Skills for the Future - The focus should shift from seeking stable jobs to acquiring skills that are less likely to be automated, specifically integration skills (understanding tools, scenarios, and human behavior) and transferability skills (ability to switch fields quickly) [2][3] - The article concludes that true stability lies in embracing new orders rather than clinging to old ones [3]

Group 1: AMD and OpenAI Partnership - AMD's stock surged 11.4% on Wednesday, marking its first-ever close above $230, with a cumulative increase of 43% over the past three days [1] - OpenAI announced a partnership with AMD to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD chips, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] - Following the announcement, 26 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets for AMD, with the highest target set at $300, indicating potential for an additional 30% increase [1] Group 2: Gold Market Developments - Spot gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time on October 8 [2] - Several domestic gold jewelry brands also reported record prices, with some exceeding 1160 yuan per gram [2] - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300 [2] Group 3: AI Chip Demand - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang reported a significant increase in demand for the new Blackwell architecture chips, indicating a strong market for AI computing [3] - Huang described the current demand as "very, very high," suggesting the onset of a new industrial revolution driven by AI [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed a general consensus among officials on the need for interest rate cuts, though there were notable disagreements on the pace and extent of these cuts [4] - Some officials even suggested that maintaining current rates could be a reasonable option, highlighting uncertainty in policy decisions [4] Group 5: Market Trends and Predictions - Citic Securities noted that incremental liquidity remains primarily driven by absolute return funds, predicting a return to structural market characteristics [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan expressed optimism for the fourth quarter and the cross-year market, suggesting that spring 2026 could be a peak but not the peak of the current bull market [8] - Dongwu Securities emphasized the importance of volume and price coordination in the index post-holiday, with cyclical and low-position tech sectors being key factors in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1 - The book "The Islamic Empire: Fifteen Cities Defining a Civilization" explores the historical and cultural significance of key cities in the Islamic world from the 7th to the 21st century, highlighting their architecture, culture, and the dynasties or families associated with them [2] - The book "The Monsters We Fear: Our Inner Demons and the Meaning of Monsters" examines the complex relationship between humans and monsters, suggesting that monsters are projections of human fears, desires, and chaos, serving as metaphors for the eternal struggle between civilization and barbarism [4] - "The Life of the Wife of Bath: A Biography of a Remarkable Woman" discusses the character of Alison from Chaucer's "The Canterbury Tales," emphasizing her challenge to misogyny and the importance of women's self-expression in literature [6] Group 2 - "Dear Kin: A New Narrative of King Philip's War" reinterprets the historical narrative of King Philip's War, focusing on the perspectives of marginalized figures such as Indigenous women leaders and the complexities of cultural identity during the conflict [8] - "The Political Archaeology: Power Structures from the 17th Century to Present" presents a historical analysis of the concept of "politicality," arguing that political realities are shaped by historical transformations rather than being natural entities [10] - "Old Clothes, New Cuts" critiques modern materialism and social injustice through a philosophical lens, exploring the protagonist's journey from despair to spiritual awakening [12] Group 3 - "How Novels Think: The Limits of Individualism 1719-1900" discusses the relationship between the development of the novel and the formation of modern individual identity, highlighting the novel's role in shaping and revealing the contradictions of individualism [14] - "The Debate on Rights: Philosophical Explorations" investigates the nature of legal and moral rights, exploring fundamental questions about the essence and conditions of rights [16] - "The Tongzhi Restoration: The Last Resistance of Chinese Conservatism (1862-1874)" details the efforts of the Qing government during the Tongzhi Restoration, analyzing the historical conditions and mechanisms behind its near success and eventual failure [18] Group 4 - "The Nature of Happiness" critically evaluates various philosophical theories of happiness, exploring how modern conceptions differ from ancient views and questioning the moral implications of happiness [20] - "The Rubber Empire: The Struggle for Land and Power in Liberia" chronicles the establishment of a rubber empire by Firestone in Liberia, detailing the exploitation of land and labor under the guise of development [22] - "Classical Political Philosophy: Basic Principles" provides insights into Aristotle's political philosophy, addressing contemporary issues related to modernity and political thought [24] Group 5 - "The Things We Can Design: Beyond Human-Centered Worlds" critiques the anthropocentric approach in design, advocating for a more inclusive and relational design philosophy that addresses ecological concerns [26] - "A Brief History of Students" reflects on the evolving nature of student life and the core purpose of education in fostering independent thinking [28] - "The Brain: An Organ of Relationships" redefines the brain as a relational organ, emphasizing its role within the ecological network of life and its continuous transformation through interaction [30] Group 6 - "The British Industrial Revolution: Economic Transformation and the Establishment of Global Dominance" analyzes the factors that led to the Industrial Revolution in Britain and its profound impacts on various sectors [32] - "Caribbean on the Table: Food, Texts, and Culture" explores how diasporic writers use food to construct identity, examining the tensions between traditional and modern culinary practices [34] - "The Autumn Leaves Collection" is a compilation of essays reflecting on life, literature, and the influence of various literary figures on the author's thoughts [36] Group 7 - "The Reasons for Fear of Work" investigates the rising psychological issues related to work in Japan, providing insights into the workplace environment and suggesting constructive solutions [38] - "The Language of the Inuit: Semantics and Culture in the Arctic" studies the geographical distribution and dialectical differences of the Inuit language, examining its historical evolution and current status [40] - "High-Speed Trading: How Algorithms Transform Financial Markets" documents the rise of high-frequency trading and its implications for market efficiency and competition [42] Group 8 - "The Development of Translation Competence" focuses on the multidimensional construction of translation competence and emphasizes learner-centered teaching methods [44] - "A History of Greek Philosophy" provides a concise overview of ancient Greek philosophy, tracing the evolution of philosophical thought through key figures and schools [46] - "The Game of Cattle and Horses: How Silicon Valley Tames Engineers" reveals the hidden labor control mechanisms in tech companies, exploring how gamification affects engineers' work-life balance [48] Group 9 - "Weimar Culture: Outsiders in the Center" examines the cultural experiments of the Weimar Republic, highlighting the contributions of artists and intellectuals during a tumultuous period in German history [50] - "The Odes of John Keats" offers a detailed analysis of Keats' odes, situating them within the broader context of English poetry [52] - "Beyond Listening: Decoding Young Children's Voices in Early Education" critiques the practices of listening to young children in educational settings, proposing frameworks for better engagement [54] Group 10 - "On the Water's Edge: The Evolution of Life" explores macroevolution and the secrets of life through recent scientific discoveries and analyses [55] - "Living Like a Capybara: An Emotional Wellness Handbook for the Fragmented Age" provides practical methods for emotional health, emphasizing the importance of managing hostility for overall well-being [57] - "The Rainbow on the Plate: How Chemical Dyes Change Our Relationship with Food" narrates the history of synthetic dyes in food production, linking it to broader themes of safety and authenticity in the food industry [77]

Group 1 - The "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathering global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore development opportunities [1] Group 2 - Xiaopeng Motors' Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng emphasized the future of driving, suggesting that in 20 years, the next generation may not need to obtain a driver's license, similar to how horseback riding has become a hobby rather than a necessity [3] - He highlighted the significant growth of electric vehicles in China, noting that in the past 11 years, the market share of electric vehicles in new car sales rose from less than 0.4% to over 60% this year, with a peak of 50% last year [3] - He argued that the belief in the future of smart vehicles, particularly with AI, has evolved over the past decade, indicating that the next industrial revolution will transform daily life through advancements in fully autonomous and robotic vehicles [3]

Group 1 - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathering global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore development opportunities [1] - Xiaopeng Motors aims to become a "global AI automotive company" in the next decade, highlighting the significant growth of electric vehicle sales in China from less than 0.4% to over 60% in recent years [3] - The CEO of Xiaopeng Motors emphasized that the next industrial revolution will be driven by AI and smart technology, predicting a future where cars will be fully autonomous and integrated with robotics [3]

Core Points - The article discusses the concept of the "industrious revolution" in Japan during the Edo period, contrasting it with the industrial revolution in Western countries [3][10][15] - It highlights the significant role of human labor in agricultural development, replacing animal power and leading to increased productivity [2][3][11] - The article emphasizes the cultural shift towards valuing hard work and its implications for Japan's later industrialization [12][15] Group 1: Agricultural Development - During the Edo period, agricultural technology advancements relied more on human labor than on capital investment in livestock [2][6] - Farmers increased their labor input, leading to higher land utilization rates and agricultural productivity [2][9] - The expansion of arable land was achieved through the increased labor of farmers and their families, rather than through capital investment in livestock [7][9] Group 2: Cultural Shift - The concept of hard work became a virtue during the Edo period, contrasting with previous societal views on labor [12][13] - This cultural shift was not propagated through religious institutions but rather through familial and social relationships [14] - The increased labor intensity among farmers led to improvements in living standards, knowledge, and cultural activities [15] Group 3: Implications for Industrialization - The industrious qualities developed during the Edo period were crucial for Japan's later industrialization, especially given the lack of natural resources [15] - The article suggests that the hardworking nature of the Japanese people, cultivated over centuries, played a significant role in the success of Japan's industrial revolution [15][16]