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日本正在集体退休,东亚的平衡会被打破吗?
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-29 03:58
Group 1 - Japan's demographic crisis is characterized by a declining birth rate and an aging population, with the total fertility rate falling below 1.3, the lowest among industrialized Asian countries and OECD members [3][4] - The aging population has led to significant challenges for Japan's social security system, with the proportion of elderly people (65+) reaching 29.3% of the total population, and those aged 75 and above exceeding 20.76 million [9][10] - The labor force is shrinking, with a projected shortfall of 690,000 caregivers by 2040, highlighting a paradox where high employment rates coexist with severe labor shortages [11][12] Group 2 - Japan's strategic military shift is evident as the government plans to double defense spending to meet NATO standards, despite the aging population and declining labor force [15][16] - The country is adopting a "quality over quantity" approach in military capabilities, focusing on technological innovations to compensate for demographic disadvantages [17][18] - Japan's foreign policy is evolving, with increased engagement in Southeast Asia and a shift from being a passive player to actively shaping regional order through initiatives like the Quad [30][31] Group 3 - The economic implications of Japan's demographic changes are significant, with capital increasingly flowing to Southeast Asia as domestic markets shrink, creating a new economic community [34][35] - Japan's technological advancements are being leveraged to enhance its geopolitical influence, transforming demographic challenges into opportunities for strategic partnerships [40] - The interplay between aging demographics and technological innovation may redefine Japan's role in global politics, potentially leading to a more proactive stance in international relations [38][39]