技术红利边际效应递减
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大片魔法失效,《阿凡达》不再无敌
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-22 00:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting market performance of two major Hollywood films, "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar: The Way of Water," highlighting the decline in audience enthusiasm for the "Avatar" franchise compared to its previous installments [6][12]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - "Zootopia 2" has achieved a global box office of $1.1 billion, with $500 million coming from the Chinese market, significantly contributing to its success [6]. - In contrast, "Avatar 3" has faced a lukewarm reception, with pre-sales struggling and a predicted box office of only $1 billion in China, a stark decline from its predecessors [12][24]. - The first "Avatar" film grossed $2.923 billion globally, while "Avatar: The Way of Water" earned $2.32 billion, both surpassing $1.7 billion in China [12]. Group 2: Audience Expectations and Experience - The lengthy runtime of "Avatar 3" (198 minutes) has raised concerns about its value, with ticket prices reaching as high as 215 yuan, leading to heightened audience expectations [8][10]. - Viewer feedback indicates a split perception, with some praising the visual effects while others criticize the narrative for being repetitive and lacking innovation [11][12]. - The film's technical achievements are no longer seen as groundbreaking, as audiences have become accustomed to high-quality visuals, leading to a more critical evaluation of storytelling and pacing [19][25]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Implications - The article suggests a shift in audience attitudes towards Hollywood blockbusters, with viewers becoming more selective and cautious about their choices, impacting the traditional model of guaranteed box office success [23][24]. - The high production costs of films like "Avatar 3," estimated at over $400 million, raise concerns about the sustainability of such investment-heavy projects in a changing market [24][25]. - The diminishing returns of technological advancements in film are highlighted, indicating that reliance on visual effects alone may not suffice to attract audiences in the future [25][26].
大片魔法失效,《阿凡达》不再无敌
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-19 03:48
Core Insights - The box office performance of two major Hollywood films, "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar: The Way of Water" (referred to as "Avatar 3"), has diverged significantly, with "Zootopia 2" achieving a global box office of $1.1 billion, including $500 million from the Chinese market, while "Avatar 3" faces challenges with lukewarm pre-sales and mixed reviews [2][9]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - "Zootopia 2" has set new box office records, with a global total of $1.1 billion, and the Chinese market contributing significantly with $500 million [2]. - In contrast, "Avatar 3" has seen disappointing pre-sales, with predictions estimating its opening day box office at only $102 million, which is underwhelming compared to its predecessors [8][9]. - The anticipated domestic box office for "Avatar 3" is projected to be around $1 billion, a significant drop from the previous films in the franchise [9]. Group 2: Audience Reception and Expectations - The lengthy runtime of "Avatar 3" (198 minutes) has raised concerns among viewers, leading to discussions about whether the experience justifies the high ticket price of up to 215 yuan [3][4][5]. - Audience reactions are polarized, with some praising the visual effects while others criticize the narrative for being repetitive and lacking innovation [7][8]. - The film's technical achievements are not translating into compelling storytelling, leading to a mixed reception that reflects a shift in audience expectations [7][14]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The changing dynamics of audience engagement with Hollywood films indicate a decline in the automatic association of high-quality with blockbuster films, as viewers become more selective and cost-conscious [17]. - The high production costs of "Avatar 3," estimated at over $400 million, raise questions about the sustainability of such large-scale investments in an uncertain market [18][20]. - The diminishing returns on visual effects as a selling point suggest that reliance on technology alone may not suffice to attract audiences, indicating a need for stronger narratives [21][22].