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人工智能将如何崩盘?
虎嗅APP· 2025-11-03 09:53
Core Viewpoint - The articles from Wired and The Atlantic highlight that artificial intelligence (AI) represents an unprecedented "ultimate bubble" that could lead to a significant financial collapse, drawing parallels to past economic crises [4][5]. Group 1: Anatomy of the Ultimate Bubble - AI is characterized as the "ultimate bubble" due to its unprecedented uncertainty, with 95% of companies using generative AI not making a profit [9][10]. - The investment landscape is dominated by "pure plays," where venture capitalists are heavily investing in companies solely focused on AI, leading to a self-reinforcing ecosystem [11][12]. - A surge of new retail investors is fueling the bubble, with significant investments in AI stocks like Nvidia, which saw nearly $30 billion from retail investors [13][14]. - The powerful narrative surrounding AI, promising transformative capabilities, acts as a catalyst for investment despite the underlying uncertainties [14][15]. Group 2: Physical Mechanisms of Collapse - The physical manifestation of the AI bubble is evident in the rapid construction of data centers, which are consuming vast amounts of energy and resources [17][18]. - AI-related spending is projected to contribute 92% to GDP growth by mid-2025, indicating a disconnect between AI-driven growth and the declining real economy [19][20]. - The financial structure supporting AI investments is increasingly complex, involving private equity firms and creating a potential for a crisis reminiscent of the 2008 financial collapse [23][24]. Group 3: Mechanisms of Collapse - The impending crisis may be triggered by the realization that AI companies cannot transition from significant losses to profitability, leading to a collapse in tech stock prices and a devaluation of data center leases [30][31]. - The rapid depreciation of data center assets, driven by technological advancements, poses a significant risk to the financial instruments tied to these assets [28][29]. Group 4: The Endgame - Regardless of whether AI succeeds or fails, the outcome is likely to be detrimental, with potential for unprecedented financial turmoil or a future where human labor is rendered obsolete [35][40]. - The pursuit of scale by tech giants may lead to chaos, leaving behind outdated infrastructure and a fragile financial system [42].