Core Insights - The annual top investment guide by Wellington Investment aims to help investors clarify priorities for the upcoming year to achieve better investment outcomes [1] Review of Last Year's Performance - The overall market performance for 2025 (up to November) was similar to 2023 and 2024, with strong stock returns, decent credit returns, low government bond returns, and mixed performance in commodities [2] - Gold ranked second in asset performance for the second consecutive year, with emerging markets, including China, and broad non-U.S. equities being the best-performing asset classes [2] - U.S. stocks showed resilience due to the strong performance of large-cap stocks [2] Lessons Learned - Policy paths are not linear, as the new U.S. government's tariff policies were unpredictable, impacting market sentiment [4] - Risk appetite and risk-averse sentiment can coexist, as evidenced by the strong performance of stocks during periods of rising gold prices [5] - The U.S. dollar is not invulnerable, facing pressure due to market and strategic reasons [6] - Betting against inflation and shorting tech stocks can be costly, indicating risks in going against the current cycle [7] - The principle of "buying the dip" remains valid, as increasing positions during market downturns often outperforms reducing positions [8] - Current global trends may persist, and investors should be prepared for this [9] Assessing Short-Term Outlook - As of December 2025, the team holds a moderately overweight view on global equities, benefiting from reduced uncertainty in global economic policies and central bank easing [10] - Preference for stock allocation is given to Japan and the U.S., followed by Europe and emerging markets [10] - A moderately overweight view on developed market government bonds, neutral on credit, and slightly underweight on commodities, primarily driven by a slight underweight on oil [10] - The short-term outlook for stocks remains optimistic following a strong rise in 2025 [11] Examining Potential Opportunity Areas - Wellington Investment's capital market assumptions indicate that stock returns are expected to outperform fixed income, with non-U.S. stocks leading [12] - The expected return for a typical 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio is slightly above 5%, lower than the historical average of about 6% due to valuation constraints [16] - Adjustments to tech stock allocations are recommended, as nearly 40% of surveyed respondents are underweight in tech stocks [16] - Defensive stock strategies may still hold value in portfolios despite temporarily lagging behind tech stocks [17] - Consideration of non-favored areas such as non-U.S. stocks, small-cap stocks, and value stocks is encouraged [18] - 2026 may present ample diversification investment opportunities [19] Understanding Market Consensus - Current market consensus indicates a preference for stocks and gold, with concerns over bubble risks [20] - The risk pricing for government and credit bonds is relatively low [21] - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will intervene during market sell-offs [22] - Investor sentiment towards emerging markets is generally cold, despite increasing interest from some fund managers [23] - Value stocks, quality stocks, and small-cap stocks appear to remain out of favor [24] - Market expectations show a nearly 50% growth in earnings, despite past negative actual earnings [25] - Strong recovery is anticipated in Europe and emerging markets, with steady expectations for the U.S., while Japan's economic improvement is minimally expected [25] - The market anticipates the continuation of current trends, suggesting that any surprises could lead to significant impacts [26] Considering Possible Surprises - Preparation for stronger growth, higher inflation, and unexpected policy changes is advised [28] Long-Term Outlook - Institutional asset owners plan to increase allocations in 2026 to hedge funds, infrastructure, private credit, private equity, non-U.S. developed market stocks, emerging market stocks, and return-seeking fixed income [29] - Strategies that may be effective regardless of the cycle include market concentration strategies and dynamic fixed income strategies [30] Researching Alternative Investment Areas - Alternative investments are crucial for many investors, with a focus on hedge funds, private equity, and private credit [32] Fostering Internal Risk Management Awareness - Key risks to monitor in 2026 include U.S. midterm elections, potential fiscal stimulus, and optimistic sentiment towards earnings, especially in tech stocks [34] - Scenario analysis and stress testing of portfolios are recommended to incorporate various risk factors [34] Evaluating Liquidity Conditions - Investors should consider factors that may alter liquidity demands in the coming year [36] - Overall liquidity conditions are expected to remain consistent with those seen in 2025 [37] Streamlining 2026 Priorities - Investors should simplify their priorities into manageable lists, focusing on both defensive and offensive strategies [38]