编者按 本文为联办总干事、《聊一波》创始人王波明先生为《财富是认知的变现》所撰序言。王波明毕业于美 国哥伦比亚大学国际金融专业，是中国改革开放后最早的一批留学生之一，也是中国证券市场的早期主 要推动者之一。 作者/王波明，联办总干事，《聊一波》创始人。 自1988年参与创建中国资本市场，又于1998年创办《财经》杂志以来，37年间，我见证了无数波澜 壮阔的资本故事和无数英雄的起起伏伏。这段历史足以证明： 在资本市场，一时闪耀的流星很多， 但是稳定而长寿的恒星很少。 这并不是一项轻松的任务，因为"江山易改本性难移"，要想做到这一点，必须摒弃盲人摸象，首先在 认知上构建一套科学而严密的体系。在这方面，舒泰峰做了一项十分有益的工作。他在离开《财经》 之后，加入到国内一线私募机构重阳投资，经过七八年的重新沉淀，推出了他的作品《财富是认知的 变现》，成为业内颇具影响力的系统拆解投资认知的佳作。 这本书让我印象深刻的地方不少，其中主要有以下几点： 第一， 该书系统梳理了投资中的12大认知误区和12大认知武器，而且把它们穿插到投资亏损的四个 阶段当中，条分缕析，针对性和实操性很强，每个有过投资经验的人都可以从中找到对症下药 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current bull market in A-shares is still ongoing, despite market fluctuations, as it is determined by national policies and the realization of capital market value [4][6]. - The process of debt reduction is still in its early stages, indicating that the market's recovery is complex and slow [4]. - Economic indicators such as consumer spending, housing prices, and private enterprise investment remain weak, suggesting that deflationary pressures have not changed [5][6]. Group 2 - Technical indicators like K-line combinations, moving averages, and trading volume are essential for stock trading, serving as the foundation of technical analysis [11]. - Fundamental analysis focusing on performance and valuation is crucial for value investors, but it may not significantly improve the success rate for most retail investors due to information lag [13][14]. - National policies and geopolitical factors are vital for identifying market trends and investment opportunities, acting as catalysts for bull markets [15]. Group 3 - Understanding broader trends and logical analysis is key to identifying potential high-performing stocks and serves as a basis for long-term investment decisions [17]. - Maintaining the right rhythm and mindset is critical for successful trading, emphasizing the importance of patience and clarity in decision-making [18][19]. - A comprehensive understanding of all the aforementioned factors contributes to an investor's cognitive development, which is essential for achieving higher investment success [20][21][22].

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the U.S. stock market dropping sharply after Nvidia's earnings report excitement faded quickly [1] - The unexpected strong non-farm payroll data for September dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, contributing to the market downturn [1] A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market also faced losses, with the ChiNext index falling by 4% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.45%, closing at 3834 points [3] - Many companies saw declines exceeding 4%, leading to substantial losses for investors [3] Market Signals and Analysis - A data system identified critical market signals indicating a potential market shift, which was communicated to club members prior to the downturn [5] - The importance of recognizing market signals and relying on data rather than emotions was emphasized, highlighting the disparity in investor responses to the same market conditions [6][8] Investor Behavior Insights - A humorous categorization of investors was shared, illustrating different attitudes and behaviors based on account sizes, reflecting the underlying truth about wealth and cognitive levels in investing [8] - The narrative suggests that one's investment success is closely tied to their understanding and mindset, rather than mere luck [8] Future Market Outlook - After four days of market adjustments, risks have been effectively released, and there is a potential for a market rebound, with heightened emotional opportunities [9] - The strength of the upcoming rebound will be crucial for the future direction of the A-share market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The success or failure of investments primarily depends on the accurate judgment of profitability, which is rooted in the depth of understanding [1] Group 1: Importance of Reading - Engaging with historical perspectives and diverse knowledge through reading is essential for enhancing cognitive abilities and investment insights [1] - Successful individuals across various industries share a common trait of being avid readers, which aids in observing long-term trends and identifying investment value [1] Group 2: Book Recommendation - "Barbarians at the Gate" by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar is highlighted as a classic account of Wall Street's business battles, detailing KKR's $25 billion leveraged buyout of RJR Nabisco in 1988 [4] - The book reveals the brutal nature of capital competition and the dual-edged effects of financial innovation, emphasizing the conflict between capital and real business operations [4] - It serves as a reflection on the boundaries of capital's role, warning against short-sighted management practices while advocating for value co-creation rather than value extraction [4][5]

Core Insights - The success or failure of investments primarily hinges on the accurate judgment of profitability, which is rooted in the depth of understanding [1] - Engaging with historical perspectives and diverse knowledge through reading is essential for enhancing cognitive abilities and identifying investment value [1] Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks emphasizes that investment outcomes depend on the correctness of profitability assessments [1] - Charlie Munger highlights the importance of aligning one's understanding with the value of desired outcomes [1] Importance of Reading - Continuous reading is a common trait among successful individuals across various industries, which aids in observing long-term trends and fundamental principles [1] - Reading serves as a tool to transcend current limitations in understanding and to discover enduring investment opportunities [1] Featured Book Recommendation - "The Autobiography of Morris Chang" by Morris Chang is recommended as a significant resource for understanding the rise of TSMC, a key player in the global semiconductor and AI industry [4] - The autobiography spans 26 years, providing insights into Chang's journey and the evolution of the semiconductor industry, making it a vital reference for investors and entrepreneurs [4] - Key principles from TSMC's success include continuous innovation, respect for intellectual property, and maintaining a global perspective [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding one's own investment knowledge and sticking to familiar sectors for better returns [3][4] - It contrasts two investors: one who focuses on traditional industries and understands the fundamentals, leading to a 70% increase in their account, and another who chases trends without understanding the underlying businesses, resulting in significant losses [3][4] - The piece advocates for a long-term investment approach, encouraging investors to study industry reports and company fundamentals to build a solid understanding of their investments [4] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should not rush to follow market trends or envy quick gains, but rather take the time to develop their own investment knowledge [4] - It highlights that a solid understanding of the market and individual stocks can provide confidence in holding investments through various market conditions [4]

Core Insights - The current bull market appears to be temporarily paused, with various disappointing news emerging as investors rush to increase their positions [1][9] - The market has shown a significant deviation in investor behavior, particularly since June 23, indicating a lack of understanding of market dynamics [1][4] Group 1: Investor Behavior - Investors are overly optimistic, believing that low-probability events will continue to occur, which has led to a series of market anomalies [3][4] - The habit of chasing high prices is difficult to change, resulting in significant losses during bull markets [4][6] - Many investors overestimate their risk tolerance and fail to recognize the importance of focused investment strategies [7][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "924" market anniversary is approaching, suggesting that the current bull market is not over but merely resting, with expectations for a potential new rally in August [9][11] - For a new market rally to occur, the "profit effect index" must drop to a "sentiment bottom," and the "financing buy-in ratio" should decrease to around 8% [9]

Core Insights - The essence of investment lies in understanding the truth, quality, and value of assets, where the ability to discern truth is crucial for survival in the industry [1][2] - Investment success is influenced by the level of cognitive understanding, with higher levels leading to better decision-making and outcomes [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is fundamentally about exploring the truth behind societal changes and understanding value through probability and odds [2] - The recognition of investment principles can be categorized into different levels, from fragmented (point) to comprehensive (array) understanding, with the latter being essential for effective decision-making [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market presents unique challenges, and while past experiences may not directly translate to future success, strategic opportunities will continue to arise [3][4] - The best selling opportunities often occur when market sentiment is overly optimistic, while the best buying opportunities arise during periods of pessimism [8][9] Group 3: Risk Management - Effective risk management is crucial, as it prevents significant fluctuations in net value, and should be prioritized over merely smoothing out volatility [6][7] - High probability investments should be based on strong demand and supply barriers, with opportunities arising from concentrated negative sentiment [7][8] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Successful investing requires a long-term perspective, patience, and the ability to endure market fluctuations while maintaining a disciplined approach [10][11] - Understanding that uncertainty is absolute and learning to make high-certainty decisions amidst it is key to investment success [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the lessons learned from the 2015 stock market crash in China, emphasizing the importance of risk management, market awareness, and the need for continuous learning in investment practices [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Events and Historical Context - The article discusses the peak of the Chinese stock market at 5178 points on June 12, 2015, followed by a significant downturn where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 43% within 17 trading days [4]. - It highlights the massive IPO activities that led to a freezing of 6.7 trillion yuan in funds, marking a new high since the IPO restart in 2014 [4]. - The article notes the extreme volatility in the market post-crash, with multiple instances of "千股涨停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit up) and "千股跌停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down) [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - The article advises against leveraging and financing in capital markets, citing that such practices often lead to significant losses during market downturns [5]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to respect the market and acknowledge their limitations, suggesting that many enter the market with unrealistic expectations [6]. - Continuous learning and experience accumulation are crucial for investors, as the market's nature requires adaptability and awareness of changing conditions [7]. Group 3: Personal Reflections and Lessons - The author shares personal anecdotes of individuals who suffered significant losses due to over-leveraging and heavy positions during the 2015 crash, illustrating the psychological impact of such experiences [5][6]. - The article stresses the importance of reflecting on past mistakes and learning from them to avoid repeating them in future market cycles [7]. - It concludes with a call for investors to focus on improving their understanding of market dynamics and to be patient, waiting for favorable conditions to invest [7].

Core Viewpoint - The individual is contemplating whether to continue full-time investing or accept a job offer from a state-owned enterprise, weighing the benefits of financial stability against the desire for personal freedom and investment growth [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Performance - The individual has been investing full-time for nearly a year, achieving an annualized return of approximately 11% in overseas accounts and an estimated 5-10% in A-shares [1]. - Despite having more time to research investment tools, the individual feels that full-time investing has only marginally improved annual investment performance by 2-4% [1]. Group 2: Employment Considerations - The job offer from the state-owned enterprise is valued at around 700,000 yuan annually, which is about 65% of the previous salary from a foreign company [1][2]. - The individual is hesitant to accept the job due to the significant salary reduction and the perception of a lack of job security in the current market, especially for older workers [2][3]. Group 3: Family and Social Dynamics - The individual's spouse works in a state-owned enterprise and has expressed concerns about the stability of income from full-time investing compared to a regular job [2]. - The individual has two children and owns two properties with a total value of approximately 10 million yuan, which adds to the pressure of making a stable income decision [2]. Group 4: Personal Reflection and Future Outlook - The individual is at a crossroads, considering the trade-offs between the freedom of full-time investing and the social and financial benefits of returning to a structured work environment [3][8]. - There is a recognition that working in a state-owned enterprise could provide social interactions and resources that are currently lacking in a full-time investment role [8].