周五全球股市再次大跳水，大家是不是有点懵？英伟达财报带来的狂欢仅维持了一天，9月"迟到"的非农数据超预期，给美联储降息预期又浇了一盆冷水。 周五隔夜美股彻底躺平，随后亚太股市也跟着大跳水。韩国股市狂泻近4%，日经下跌2.4%。 A股也没能独善其身。全天低开低走，毫无抵抗。不仅创业板指下跌4%，就连上证指数也跌了2.45%，收报3834点。一般公司跌幅超过4%，不少朋友的账户 估计又缩水了一圈。这时候大家肯定是慌的，老毛尤其要出来说几句。 先说老毛成长俱乐部的朋友，你们应该早有准备吧？周三盘后，老毛的独家大数据就捕捉到了市场转折的重要信号。于是我率先发给了俱乐部朋友做了提 醒。当晚我还特别做了一期短视频，标题就叫做"有变数"，分析了三个原因，告诉大家"市场发生了重要转变"。你如果应对得当，这两天至少4个点的跌幅 你就躲避掉了，不过老毛自己也知道，数据显示，即时是我俱乐部的朋友，也只有不到半数的看到老毛的提醒。 有朋友说"毛老师大数据体系抄底逃顶择时水平已达化境，真是不服不行"，感谢她的肯定。这个大数据系统老毛已经使用了近二十年了，现在我自己也被它 深深折服。其实，你愿意相信专业、相信数据，而不是被情绪牵着鼻子走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The success or failure of investments primarily depends on the accurate judgment of profitability, which is rooted in the depth of understanding [1] Group 1: Importance of Reading - Engaging with historical perspectives and diverse knowledge through reading is essential for enhancing cognitive abilities and investment insights [1] - Successful individuals across various industries share a common trait of being avid readers, which aids in observing long-term trends and identifying investment value [1] Group 2: Book Recommendation - "Barbarians at the Gate" by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar is highlighted as a classic account of Wall Street's business battles, detailing KKR's $25 billion leveraged buyout of RJR Nabisco in 1988 [4] - The book reveals the brutal nature of capital competition and the dual-edged effects of financial innovation, emphasizing the conflict between capital and real business operations [4] - It serves as a reflection on the boundaries of capital's role, warning against short-sighted management practices while advocating for value co-creation rather than value extraction [4][5]

Core Insights - The success or failure of investments primarily hinges on the accurate judgment of profitability, which is rooted in the depth of understanding [1] - Engaging with historical perspectives and diverse knowledge through reading is essential for enhancing cognitive abilities and identifying investment value [1] Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks emphasizes that investment outcomes depend on the correctness of profitability assessments [1] - Charlie Munger highlights the importance of aligning one's understanding with the value of desired outcomes [1] Importance of Reading - Continuous reading is a common trait among successful individuals across various industries, which aids in observing long-term trends and fundamental principles [1] - Reading serves as a tool to transcend current limitations in understanding and to discover enduring investment opportunities [1] Featured Book Recommendation - "The Autobiography of Morris Chang" by Morris Chang is recommended as a significant resource for understanding the rise of TSMC, a key player in the global semiconductor and AI industry [4] - The autobiography spans 26 years, providing insights into Chang's journey and the evolution of the semiconductor industry, making it a vital reference for investors and entrepreneurs [4] - Key principles from TSMC's success include continuous innovation, respect for intellectual property, and maintaining a global perspective [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding one's own investment knowledge and sticking to familiar sectors for better returns [3][4] - It contrasts two investors: one who focuses on traditional industries and understands the fundamentals, leading to a 70% increase in their account, and another who chases trends without understanding the underlying businesses, resulting in significant losses [3][4] - The piece advocates for a long-term investment approach, encouraging investors to study industry reports and company fundamentals to build a solid understanding of their investments [4] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should not rush to follow market trends or envy quick gains, but rather take the time to develop their own investment knowledge [4] - It highlights that a solid understanding of the market and individual stocks can provide confidence in holding investments through various market conditions [4]

Core Insights - The current bull market appears to be temporarily paused, with various disappointing news emerging as investors rush to increase their positions [1][9] - The market has shown a significant deviation in investor behavior, particularly since June 23, indicating a lack of understanding of market dynamics [1][4] Group 1: Investor Behavior - Investors are overly optimistic, believing that low-probability events will continue to occur, which has led to a series of market anomalies [3][4] - The habit of chasing high prices is difficult to change, resulting in significant losses during bull markets [4][6] - Many investors overestimate their risk tolerance and fail to recognize the importance of focused investment strategies [7][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "924" market anniversary is approaching, suggesting that the current bull market is not over but merely resting, with expectations for a potential new rally in August [9][11] - For a new market rally to occur, the "profit effect index" must drop to a "sentiment bottom," and the "financing buy-in ratio" should decrease to around 8% [9]

Core Insights - The essence of investment lies in understanding the truth, quality, and value of assets, where the ability to discern truth is crucial for survival in the industry [1][2] - Investment success is influenced by the level of cognitive understanding, with higher levels leading to better decision-making and outcomes [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is fundamentally about exploring the truth behind societal changes and understanding value through probability and odds [2] - The recognition of investment principles can be categorized into different levels, from fragmented (point) to comprehensive (array) understanding, with the latter being essential for effective decision-making [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market presents unique challenges, and while past experiences may not directly translate to future success, strategic opportunities will continue to arise [3][4] - The best selling opportunities often occur when market sentiment is overly optimistic, while the best buying opportunities arise during periods of pessimism [8][9] Group 3: Risk Management - Effective risk management is crucial, as it prevents significant fluctuations in net value, and should be prioritized over merely smoothing out volatility [6][7] - High probability investments should be based on strong demand and supply barriers, with opportunities arising from concentrated negative sentiment [7][8] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Successful investing requires a long-term perspective, patience, and the ability to endure market fluctuations while maintaining a disciplined approach [10][11] - Understanding that uncertainty is absolute and learning to make high-certainty decisions amidst it is key to investment success [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the lessons learned from the 2015 stock market crash in China, emphasizing the importance of risk management, market awareness, and the need for continuous learning in investment practices [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Events and Historical Context - The article discusses the peak of the Chinese stock market at 5178 points on June 12, 2015, followed by a significant downturn where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 43% within 17 trading days [4]. - It highlights the massive IPO activities that led to a freezing of 6.7 trillion yuan in funds, marking a new high since the IPO restart in 2014 [4]. - The article notes the extreme volatility in the market post-crash, with multiple instances of "千股涨停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit up) and "千股跌停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down) [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - The article advises against leveraging and financing in capital markets, citing that such practices often lead to significant losses during market downturns [5]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to respect the market and acknowledge their limitations, suggesting that many enter the market with unrealistic expectations [6]. - Continuous learning and experience accumulation are crucial for investors, as the market's nature requires adaptability and awareness of changing conditions [7]. Group 3: Personal Reflections and Lessons - The author shares personal anecdotes of individuals who suffered significant losses due to over-leveraging and heavy positions during the 2015 crash, illustrating the psychological impact of such experiences [5][6]. - The article stresses the importance of reflecting on past mistakes and learning from them to avoid repeating them in future market cycles [7]. - It concludes with a call for investors to focus on improving their understanding of market dynamics and to be patient, waiting for favorable conditions to invest [7].

Core Viewpoint - The individual is contemplating whether to continue full-time investing or accept a job offer from a state-owned enterprise, weighing the benefits of financial stability against the desire for personal freedom and investment growth [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Performance - The individual has been investing full-time for nearly a year, achieving an annualized return of approximately 11% in overseas accounts and an estimated 5-10% in A-shares [1]. - Despite having more time to research investment tools, the individual feels that full-time investing has only marginally improved annual investment performance by 2-4% [1]. Group 2: Employment Considerations - The job offer from the state-owned enterprise is valued at around 700,000 yuan annually, which is about 65% of the previous salary from a foreign company [1][2]. - The individual is hesitant to accept the job due to the significant salary reduction and the perception of a lack of job security in the current market, especially for older workers [2][3]. Group 3: Family and Social Dynamics - The individual's spouse works in a state-owned enterprise and has expressed concerns about the stability of income from full-time investing compared to a regular job [2]. - The individual has two children and owns two properties with a total value of approximately 10 million yuan, which adds to the pressure of making a stable income decision [2]. Group 4: Personal Reflection and Future Outlook - The individual is at a crossroads, considering the trade-offs between the freedom of full-time investing and the social and financial benefits of returning to a structured work environment [3][8]. - There is a recognition that working in a state-owned enterprise could provide social interactions and resources that are currently lacking in a full-time investment role [8].

Core Viewpoint - The individual is contemplating whether to continue full-time investing or accept a job offer from a state-owned enterprise, weighing the benefits of financial stability against the desire for personal freedom and investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Performance - The individual has been investing full-time for nearly a year, achieving an annualized return of approximately 11% in overseas accounts, while A-share investments yield around 5-10% [1]. - Despite having more time to research investment tools, the individual feels that full-time investing has only marginally improved annual investment performance by 2-4% [1]. Group 2: Employment Considerations - The job offer from the state-owned enterprise is valued at an annual salary of 700,000, which is about 65% of the previous foreign enterprise salary [1][2]. - The individual is hesitant to accept the job due to the significant salary reduction and the perception of a lack of job security in the current market, especially for older workers [2][3]. Group 3: Personal and Family Dynamics - The individual's spouse works in a state-owned enterprise and has expressed concerns about the stability of income from full-time investing compared to a regular job [2]. - The family has two children and owns two properties with a total value of approximately 10 million, which includes a 900,000 mortgage [2]. Group 4: Social and Psychological Factors - The individual experiences occasional boredom and isolation from full-time investing, highlighting the importance of social interaction and a structured work environment [2][3]. - There is a recognition that working in a corporate environment could provide social benefits and a sense of normalcy for the children, as well as alleviate family concerns about the individual's career choices [8].