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破局与新生:重点省份化债进度观察与区域发展转型探索
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-04 05:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "package debt resolution plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Inner Mongolia has publicly exited, while other provinces are at different stages of debt resolution [6][7][68]. - Key provinces face dual tasks of debt resolution and development. To achieve sustainable development, they need to establish a long - term risk supervision mechanism, promote the transformation of financing platforms, and shift from traditional investment - driven growth to "industry - driven" growth [3][69][70]. - In the "post - key province period", key provinces may face risks such as debt risk rebound, resolution of operating debts, transformation of urban investment platforms, and restoration of market confidence. They should rely on their own resource endowments and strategic positions to develop characteristic industries [69][70]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Introduction - In July 2023, the new round of debt resolution cycle began. Relevant policies such as Document 35 and Document 47 were issued, proposing the principle of "classified measures" for debt resolution. In November 2024, the "6 + 4+2" incremental debt resolution measures accelerated the resolution of local stock debts [5]. - In December 2024, Document 99, as the 6th supplementary document of Document 35, clarified the exit criteria and path for key provinces and explained the exit progress and subsequent requirements of financing platforms [6]. II. Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Provinces (1) Exit Criteria for Key Provinces - Document 99 proposed 2 quantitative indicators, 1 qualitative indicator, and requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms. The quantitative indicators include a cap on the implicit debt ratio and the ratio of local financial debt to GDP. The qualitative indicator assesses the ability of local governments to prevent and resolve debt risks independently. The financing platform exit progress requires a certain reduction in the number of financing platforms by specific time points [11][12]. (2) Debt Resolution Achievements in Key Provinces - **Implicit Debt Resolution**: By the end of 2024, the implicit debt balance and implicit debt ratio of key provinces decreased. Most provinces met the implicit debt ratio requirement, with Ningxia and Qinghai having an implicit debt ratio below 30% [15][16]. - **Local Financial Debt**: Except for Jilin, the ratio of the interest - bearing debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises to GDP in other key provinces decreased to varying degrees. As of the end of 2024, only Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Qinghai met the 10% standard [17][19]. - **Financing Platform Exit**: From August 2023 to September 2025, 916 enterprises announced their exit from the financing platform list. Among key provinces, Chongqing had the most exits. As of September 2025, the national financing platform quantity and stock operating financial debt scale decreased significantly compared to March 2023 [29][32][33]. - **Regional Public Opinion**: The debt risk control ability of local governments was reflected by regional public opinion. From 2023 to September 2025, Shandong, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Henan had relatively high frequencies of bill overdue risks among urban investment enterprises [34]. (3) Exit Process of Key Provinces - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of key provinces, serving as a model for other provinces. The remaining 11 key provinces can be divided into three types: fast - exit type (Qinghai, Ningxia, etc.), bottleneck - tackling type (Gansu, Guangxi, etc.), and continuously - pressured type (Guizhou, Yunnan) [37][41][44]. III. Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Provinces (1) Consolidating Debt Resolution Achievements - After financing platforms exit, local governments should cut off the source of new implicit debts, promote the transformation of urban investment enterprises, and make them a driving force for debt resolution. They should match resources and transformation paths accurately and prevent the spread of enterprise crises to regional risks [50][52][53]. (2) Investment Transformation - Key provinces should shift investment from traditional infrastructure to industries and livelihood areas in line with national strategies. The investment policy focuses on "precise drip - irrigation" and "structural optimization". The investment of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is gradually shifting from traditional infrastructure to equity and fund investment [54][55]. (3) Industrial Transformation - Key provinces should focus on resource endowments and strategic advantages, avoid homogeneous competition, and achieve industrial value - added through energy complementarity, industrial collaboration, and open linkage. Each province has its own characteristic industrial transformation directions [64][65]. IV. Summary and Outlook - The implementation of the debt resolution plan has achieved phased results. Key provinces are at different stages of debt resolution and face challenges such as debt risk rebound and platform transformation in the "post - key province period" [68][69]. - To achieve sustainable development, key provinces should establish a long - term risk supervision mechanism, promote financing platform transformation, and shift to "industry - driven" growth [69][70].