2025 年 11 月 14 日 债券市场或已对金融数据回落有所预期 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：央行公布 2025 年 10 月金融数据，社融新增 0.82 万亿元，社融存量同比 增长 8.5%，较前值下降 0.2pct；2025 年前三季度社会融资规模增量累计为 30.90 万亿元，同比增长 14.1%；M1 同比增长 6.2%，M2 同比增长 8.2%，M0 同比增 长 10.6%，前十个月净投放现金 7284 亿元。 债券市场或已对 10 月金融数据回落有所预期 1、地方政府化债会阶段性下拉贷款增长。2025 年三季度货币政策报告指出 2024 年以来，地方政府发行 4 万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行 贷款。地方政府通过发行低利率债券偿还高息贷款，降低融资成本的同时避免两 头付息。化债将支持方式从贷款转为债券，并不影响整体支持力度。 2、政府部门加杠杆对冲 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 2025年10月，M1余额同比增长6.2%，继续处于近三年以来的较高水平。10月人民贷款增加2200亿元，社会融 资规模增量为8150亿元，M2余额同比增长8.2%，看似或多或少有那么点偏少。但是，如果我们考虑到"过去与 现在"和"表面与内在"这两组关系的话，那么便不会再认为10月的信贷、社融和M2增长是偏少的。 2、"过去与未来"的关系 10月金融数据反映的是10月的货币、信贷和社融增长情况，而至今日（即11月13日）时11月已几乎过去了一 半。显然，我们所看到的金融数据只代表过去。在进行分析研究时，我们既要关注过去的金融数据，更要关注 数据在未来的变化。 今年三家政策性银行共5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具额度已于10月底前全部使用完毕，有力支持了一批重点 领域和薄弱环节项目建设，预计将拉动项目总投资超7万亿元。 项目资本金制度是我国始终坚持、不断完善的一项投资管理基本制度，其具有投资调控和风险防范双重功能。 也正是由于上述制度约束的存在，项目资本金的筹措时常会成为制约项目建设的瓶颈。债券市场投资者所言 的"缺项目"在很大程度上是"缺项目资本金"。新型政策性金融工 ...

2025 年 11 月 13 日 总量研究 从两组关系理解 10 月的金融数据 ——2025 年 11 月 13 日利率债观察 要点 1、从两组关系理解 10 月的金融数据 2025 年 10 月，M1 余额同比增长 6.2%，继续处于近三年以来的较高水平。10 月人民贷款增加 2200 亿元，社会融资规模增量为 8150 亿元，M2 余额同比增长 8.2%，看似或多或少有那么点偏少。但是，如果我们考虑到"过去与现在"和 "表面与内在"这两组关系的话，那么便不会再认为 10 月的信贷、社融和 M2 在进行分析研究时，我们既要关注金融数据的表观读数，更要考量数据变化背后 的内在逻辑。特别是本阶段在分析信贷时，应对地方政府化债、中小金融机构化 险所形成的影响予以充分还原。本阶段有大量的地方政府隐性债务被地方政府债 券所置换，企（事）业单位贷款是隐性债务的主要载体，因此地方政府化债会较 为明显地拖累信贷增长。此外，各地中小金融机构正在改革化险，不良资产的处 置也在深入推进。 众所周知，地方政府化债有利于纾解债务链条，让地方政府卸下包袱，轻装上阵； 中小金融机构化险有助于提升金融机构的资产质量，维护金融稳定，畅通经济 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the construction and decoration industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The construction industry experienced a revenue decline of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.52 trillion [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.0% year-on-year, totaling 118.9 billion [3][4]. - The industry is focusing on improving asset quality and cash flow management due to pressures from local government debt and the downturn in the real estate sector [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Financial Situation of the Construction Industry - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in Q1-Q3 2025, with quarterly revenues of 1.84 trillion, 1.91 trillion, and 1.76 trillion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 6.2%, 5.2%, and 4.3% respectively [3][4][12]. - The net profits for the same quarters were 444 billion, 431 billion, and 314 billion, with year-on-year declines of 8.8%, 3.9%, and 15.3% respectively [3][4][12]. 2. ROE Analysis - The industry’s Return on Equity (ROE) decreased by 0.53 percentage points year-on-year to 3.36% in Q1-Q3 2025 [21]. - The decline in ROE is attributed to reduced investment and profitability pressures across various sectors within the industry [21][22]. 3. Cash Flow Improvement - The operating cash flow for the industry showed improvement, with a net outflow of 404.7 billion, which is 70.7 billion less than the previous year [5][17]. - The cash collection ratios for Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 103%, 87%, and 108%, indicating a positive trend in cash management [5][17]. 4. Investment and Profitability Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards cash management and asset quality improvement, with a focus on reducing ineffective and low-efficiency assets [30]. - The net investment income for Q3 2025 decreased by 39.4 billion year-on-year, reflecting the industry's strategic pivot towards cash flow management [30]. 5. Market Perception and Opportunities - The report suggests that the market underestimates the potential for investment in the construction and real estate sectors, which remain critical to the economy [7]. - There is an expectation for increased investment opportunities in renovation and infrastructure projects, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating the economy [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2023, the implementation of the "package debt resolution plan" has achieved phased results. In December 2024, Document 99 provided a clear path for key provinces to exit. Inner Mongolia has publicly exited, while other provinces are at different stages of debt resolution [6][7][68]. - Key provinces face dual tasks of debt resolution and development. To achieve sustainable development, they need to establish a long - term risk supervision mechanism, promote the transformation of financing platforms, and shift from traditional investment - driven growth to "industry - driven" growth [3][69][70]. - In the "post - key province period", key provinces may face risks such as debt risk rebound, resolution of operating debts, transformation of urban investment platforms, and restoration of market confidence. They should rely on their own resource endowments and strategic positions to develop characteristic industries [69][70]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Introduction - In July 2023, the new round of debt resolution cycle began. Relevant policies such as Document 35 and Document 47 were issued, proposing the principle of "classified measures" for debt resolution. In November 2024, the "6 + 4+2" incremental debt resolution measures accelerated the resolution of local stock debts [5]. - In December 2024, Document 99, as the 6th supplementary document of Document 35, clarified the exit criteria and path for key provinces and explained the exit progress and subsequent requirements of financing platforms [6]. II. Analysis of Debt Resolution Progress and Achievements in Key Provinces (1) Exit Criteria for Key Provinces - Document 99 proposed 2 quantitative indicators, 1 qualitative indicator, and requirements for the exit progress of financing platforms. The quantitative indicators include a cap on the implicit debt ratio and the ratio of local financial debt to GDP. The qualitative indicator assesses the ability of local governments to prevent and resolve debt risks independently. The financing platform exit progress requires a certain reduction in the number of financing platforms by specific time points [11][12]. (2) Debt Resolution Achievements in Key Provinces - **Implicit Debt Resolution**: By the end of 2024, the implicit debt balance and implicit debt ratio of key provinces decreased. Most provinces met the implicit debt ratio requirement, with Ningxia and Qinghai having an implicit debt ratio below 30% [15][16]. - **Local Financial Debt**: Except for Jilin, the ratio of the interest - bearing debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises to GDP in other key provinces decreased to varying degrees. As of the end of 2024, only Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Qinghai met the 10% standard [17][19]. - **Financing Platform Exit**: From August 2023 to September 2025, 916 enterprises announced their exit from the financing platform list. Among key provinces, Chongqing had the most exits. As of September 2025, the national financing platform quantity and stock operating financial debt scale decreased significantly compared to March 2023 [29][32][33]. - **Regional Public Opinion**: The debt risk control ability of local governments was reflected by regional public opinion. From 2023 to September 2025, Shandong, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Henan had relatively high frequencies of bill overdue risks among urban investment enterprises [34]. (3) Exit Process of Key Provinces - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of key provinces, serving as a model for other provinces. The remaining 11 key provinces can be divided into three types: fast - exit type (Qinghai, Ningxia, etc.), bottleneck - tackling type (Gansu, Guangxi, etc.), and continuously - pressured type (Guizhou, Yunnan) [37][41][44]. III. Exploration and Analysis of Development Transformation in Key Provinces (1) Consolidating Debt Resolution Achievements - After financing platforms exit, local governments should cut off the source of new implicit debts, promote the transformation of urban investment enterprises, and make them a driving force for debt resolution. They should match resources and transformation paths accurately and prevent the spread of enterprise crises to regional risks [50][52][53]. (2) Investment Transformation - Key provinces should shift investment from traditional infrastructure to industries and livelihood areas in line with national strategies. The investment policy focuses on "precise drip - irrigation" and "structural optimization". The investment of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is gradually shifting from traditional infrastructure to equity and fund investment [54][55]. (3) Industrial Transformation - Key provinces should focus on resource endowments and strategic advantages, avoid homogeneous competition, and achieve industrial value - added through energy complementarity, industrial collaboration, and open linkage. Each province has its own characteristic industrial transformation directions [64][65]. IV. Summary and Outlook - The implementation of the debt resolution plan has achieved phased results. Key provinces are at different stages of debt resolution and face challenges such as debt risk rebound and platform transformation in the "post - key province period" [68][69]. - To achieve sustainable development, key provinces should establish a long - term risk supervision mechanism, promote financing platform transformation, and shift to "industry - driven" growth [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The "6+4+2" debt reduction plan aims to address local government debt issues in China, with a total of 6.3 trillion yuan in local government bonds issued for debt reduction as of August 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Reduction Strategy - In November 2024, China will implement a comprehensive debt reduction strategy, increasing the local debt limit by 6 trillion yuan and issuing 2 trillion yuan annually from 2024 to 2026 for refinancing [1]. - The plan includes 800 billion yuan in new special bonds each year for five years, totaling 4 trillion yuan for replacing hidden debts [1]. - The strategy also involves repaying 2 trillion yuan of hidden debts related to shantytown renovations due after 2029 according to original contracts [1]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Details - In 2024, 2 trillion yuan will be issued for refinancing hidden debts, along with 501.8 billion yuan for repaying existing debts and 877.8 billion yuan in special new bonds [2]. - In 2025, approximately 1.94 trillion yuan will be issued for refinancing hidden debts, with 968 billion yuan in special new bonds, totaling 6.3 trillion yuan over two years [2]. Group 3: Provincial Debt Management - Eight provinces have disclosed over 1.5 trillion yuan in new special bonds to address overdue corporate payments, with specific allocations including 200 billion yuan in Hunan and 356 billion yuan in Yunnan [2][3]. - Other provinces such as Henan and Inner Mongolia have also allocated significant amounts for settling overdue debts, indicating a focused effort on improving local government financial health [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Considerations - Despite the debt reduction efforts, local government debt costs are decreasing, but some provinces still face significant interest repayment pressures due to the focus on principal replacement [5]. - The efficiency of debt funds needs improvement, as some special bonds are underutilized or misallocated, with at least 150 billion yuan earmarked for settling overdue corporate payments this year [5]. - Future policies should prioritize addressing overdue corporate payments and consider increasing bond issuance to alleviate local liquidity pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chengdu Road and Bridge (002628), announced that the central government's policies since 2024 have intensified support for local debt risk resolution, positively impacting the recovery of accounts receivable for construction companies [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - The implementation of government debt resolution policies is expected to accelerate the recovery of the company's accounts receivable, which may lead to a reversal of bad debt provisions, thereby enhancing the company's profits and improving its financial condition [1] - In the first half of 2025, supported by debt resolution policies, the company received trust distribution funds amounting to 112 million yuan, which positively affected the company's pre-tax profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is accelerating the reform and transformation of local financing platforms, with over 60% of these platforms expected to exit by June 2025, indicating a significant reduction in implicit debt [2][5]. Debt Management and Policy Measures - As of August 2023, a total of 4 trillion yuan of the newly increased 6 trillion yuan special debt limit has been issued, with an average interest cost reduction of over 2.5 percentage points, saving over 450 billion yuan in interest expenses [4]. - The issuance of new local government special bonds reached 2.78 trillion yuan in 2023, with 800 billion yuan specifically allocated to support debt resolution [4]. - The total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, significantly lower than the G20 average of 118.2% [4]. Future Debt Resolution Strategies - The government plans to continue implementing a series of debt resolution measures, focusing on reducing existing implicit debt, enhancing debt management, and improving the efficiency of bond usage [6]. - The strategy includes strict management of local government debt limits, promoting the integration of implicit and legal debts, and increasing transparency in debt management [6][7]. - Local governments are encouraged to actively engage in debt resolution by optimizing resources and utilizing digital platforms to create a sustainable cycle of development and debt resolution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of deposit migration from traditional banks to non-bank financial institutions, highlighting the impact of market conditions and policy measures on this trend [1][10]. Group 1: Deposit Migration - In August, non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, while the M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8% from 3.2% in July, indicating a shift in deposit behavior [1][10]. - The prediction for excess household savings from 2020 to July 2025 has been revised down to 3.57 trillion yuan from a previous estimate of 4.25 trillion yuan, driven by declining deposit attractiveness and active capital market policies [1][10]. - The current stage of deposit migration is still in its early phase, with the potential for accelerated migration raising concerns about market overheating risks [1]. Group 2: Credit and Loan Data - In August, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, with household loans showing a significant decline [2][3]. - Household loans in August totaled 303 billion yuan, down 1.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans decreasing [2][3]. - Corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan in August, but this was also a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion yuan, indicating a weak demand for loans amid economic uncertainties [3][4]. Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, with the largest positive contribution coming from undiscounted bank acceptance bills [6][8]. - Government bonds increased by 1.37 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in local government bond issuance [9]. - The overall financing environment is expected to face pressure in the fourth quarter if no new fiscal policies are implemented [9]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank emphasizes balancing financial stability with economic support, suggesting that a moderate easing of monetary policy is likely to continue [12]. - Expectations for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of the fourth quarter are noted, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the evolution of local government financing behavior and regulatory adjustments over the past two decades have significantly influenced the financial sector. It predicts that the proportion of bank credit in local government debt will increase from 38% to 42% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an annual growth rate fluctuating between 10% and 17% [1][18][19] - City commercial banks (CCBs) have played a crucial role in supporting local government debt resolution, with their credit growth in government-related loans outpacing that of other banks. The report identifies a complementary relationship between CCBs' government-related loan growth and the issuance of urban investment bonds [1][2] - The report forecasts that CCBs will take on greater responsibilities in the future, driven by increasing state ownership, leadership changes reflecting regulatory attributes, and strong local government relationships. This will enhance local market competitiveness and provide growth opportunities for CCBs [2][18] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Local Government Financing Structure - The report outlines the historical evolution of local government debt and financing needs, highlighting the significant role of regulatory and policy adjustments in shaping the financial sector [14][18] - It provides a detailed analysis of local government debt structure changes from 2008 to 2025, noting the shift from bank loans to urban investment bonds and shadow banking during various phases [19][24] 2. CCBs' Role in Debt Resolution - CCBs have shown proactive engagement in local government debt resolution, with their government-related loan growth significantly higher than that of other banks. The report indicates that CCBs have effectively supplied funds during periods of heightened repayment pressure [1][2][19] 3. Future Prospects for CCBs - The report identifies several CCBs, including Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Shanghai Bank, as potential winners during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, expecting them to achieve faster expansion and higher returns for investors [2][3] - It predicts that the overall valuation of CCBs will have substantial room for improvement, estimating a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x by the end of 2026 and 1.22x by the end of 2030 [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific CCBs such as Chongqing Bank, Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Bank, Qilu Bank, and Chengdu Bank for potential investment opportunities [3][6]