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非农数据引发连锁反应,“黄金牛市”或将延续
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 09:33
Group 1 - The core event driving the gold market was the release of the July non-farm employment data, which showed a significant decline in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 110,000, and previous months' job numbers were revised down by a total of 258,000 [1] - Following the data release, the US dollar index fell sharply by 1.38%, increasing investor concerns about the US economic outlook and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair has added volatility to the market, with President Trump indicating a preference for a more dovish monetary policy, which could support gold prices [2] - The potential for a shift towards looser monetary policy is expected to enhance market expectations for increased money supply and rising inflation, further supporting gold [2] Group 3 - The weak employment data and significant revisions to previous figures have reinforced expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which is a positive factor for gold prices [3] - The implementation of tiered tariffs in the US is contributing to inflationary pressures, with the import price index rising by 0.7% in June, particularly affecting tariff-sensitive goods [3] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates that after a significant rebound on August 1, gold prices have returned to a consolidation range, with short-term support from moving averages [4] - The increase in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures by only 32,000 contracts suggests that bullish momentum needs to build further [4] Group 5 - The strategic value of gold as an asset has significantly increased in the current macroeconomic environment, with a target price of $3,600 per ounce maintained for the next 12 months [6] - The accumulation of supportive factors for the gold market is evident amid weak US economic data, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and ongoing global trade tensions [6]