拓场景

Search documents
光伏新增装机预测“双上调”
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-07-29 04:19
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and expanding application scenarios as key strategies for future growth [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the photovoltaic industry in China experienced a difficult environment, with a call for regulatory measures to clear outdated production capacity [1]. - The manufacturing sector showed a stark contrast, with polysilicon production down 43.8% year-on-year to 596,000 tons, and silicon wafer production down 21.4% to 31.6 million kilowatts [2]. - The average prices across various segments of the industry have dropped significantly, with reductions of 88.3% for polysilicon, 89.6% for silicon wafers, 80.8% for battery cells, and 66.4% for modules compared to the highest prices since 2020 [2]. Group 2: Application and Market Dynamics - The application sector is thriving, with new installations in the first half of 2025 reaching 21.22 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 107%, marking a historical monthly high of 9.29 million kilowatts [3]. - The cumulative installed capacity in China surpassed 100 million kilowatts, indicating a significant milestone for the industry [3]. - Export dynamics have shifted, with silicon wafer and module exports declining by 7.5% and 2.82% respectively, while battery cell exports surged by 74.4% due to increased demand from overseas markets [3]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The forecast for global photovoltaic installations has been revised upward, with expectations for new installations in China adjusted to between 27,000 and 30,000 megawatts [4]. - Key factors supporting this optimistic outlook include a solid foundation of projects ready for grid connection, ongoing support for large-scale wind and solar projects, and mature market mechanisms in provinces like Xinjiang and Gansu [4]. - The industry is moving towards a consensus on "anti-involution," with regulatory bodies advocating for healthy competition and the exit of outdated production capacities [5][6]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - Technological advancements are seen as crucial for companies to navigate current challenges, with innovations such as N-type TOPCon and perovskite tandem cell technologies showing promising efficiency improvements [7]. - Companies like JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy are leading the way with significant advancements in product efficiency and market share [7].