人民财讯1月7日电，刚刚过去的2025年，一线城市的楼市在分化与调整中也呈现出一些亮点。2026年楼 市在"稳预期"的政策信号中开启，在业内人士看来，1月成为楼市政策以及市场走向的关键观察期。 受访的一线地产中介人士均认为，二手房成交量反弹的背后是政策松绑、以价换量以及刚需需求释放同 频共振的结果，当前新房市场的问题在于控制"量"，二手房市场的问题在于提振房价。受访的多位购房 者也表示，目前最为关心的还是深圳楼市政策是否还会跟进优化，特别是会不会在1月推出新政。 元旦假期期间，记者在深圳市场走访时发现，大多数新房项目的价格变化不大，改善需求的购房者逐渐 成为主力；二手房市场依旧属于以价换量，刚需群体正成为主力。深圳贝壳研究院数据显示，2025年深 圳300万元以下房源成交占比高达45%，较2024年提升8.5个百分点，刚需成交占比持续攀升，成为支撑 市场交易的核心力量。 一线城市的市场表现一直被视为楼市的"风向标"。证券时报记者梳理2025年一线城市的楼市成交数据发 现，二手房市场的表现相对更为抢眼。其中，上海二手房成交量接近25.4万套，创下近4年来新高。深 圳二手房共成交6.82万套，同比增长5.7%，其 ...

刚刚过去的2025年，一线城市的楼市在分化与调整中也呈现出一些亮点。2026年楼市在"稳预期"的政策 信号中开启，在业内人士看来，1月成为楼市政策以及市场走向的关键观察期。 一线城市的市场表现一直被视为楼市的"风向标"。证券时报记者梳理2025年一线城市的楼市成交数据发 现，二手房市场的表现相对更为抢眼。其中，上海二手房成交量接近25.4万套，创下近4年来新高。深 圳二手房共成交6.82万套，同比增长5.7%，其中住宅成交5.62万套，同比增长3.2%。 由此可见，购房者对楼市政策的变动依旧敏感。据中指研究院监测，2025年全国有超230省市(县)出台 楼市政策约630条。就在去年年底，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》， 明确个人(不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人)将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴 纳增值税。有业内人士认为，近年来中央层面出台多项房地产税收减免或调整政策，涉及契税、个人所 得税、增值税等，减税对有购房需求的家庭特别是一线城市的购房者来说，相当于节省了一大笔开支， 楼市交易已经进入"低税费时代"。价格的适度回归与政策端的持续宽松形成呼应，既降低了刚需购房 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's real estate market is experiencing a significant policy adjustment aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing housing needs, particularly for non-local residents and families with multiple children [3][5][42]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy, effective immediately, focuses on key areas such as purchase restrictions, credit, and housing provident fund adjustments [3][5]. - The requirement for non-local families to purchase homes within the Fifth Ring has been reduced from three years of social security or tax payments to two years, and outside the Fifth Ring, it has been further relaxed to one year [7][9]. - Families with two or more children are now allowed to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring, addressing their housing needs [10][12]. Financial Implications - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, implementing a unified mortgage interest rate, which is currently around 3.2% [14]. - The minimum down payment for second homes using the housing provident fund has been reduced from 30% to 25%, easing the financial burden on homebuyers [14][16]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in land auction processes aims to lower the barriers for companies to acquire land, potentially increasing new housing supply [16]. - Compared to other cities, Beijing's policy changes are not the most aggressive, but they serve as a significant signal for national market trends [20][22]. Broader Context - The adjustments reflect a broader trend of easing restrictions in major cities, with other cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen already implementing more lenient policies [20][26]. - The policy changes are designed to balance the local market with surrounding areas, avoiding excessive pressure on neighboring cities [28]. Future Outlook - The overall impact of these policy changes on the housing market remains uncertain, as many potential buyers are still hesitant due to concerns about falling prices and income stability [30][32]. - The long-term goal of these adjustments is to stabilize housing prices and ensure that the real estate market serves the public's housing needs effectively [40][42].

会议要求，全市各级各部门要把思想和行动统一到市委的工作要求上来，扛牢责任、克难奋进，市级领 导要率先垂范、以身作则，市级部门要主动作为、靠前服务，各县区要守土有责、守土尽责，共同找对 策、想办法、抓落实，不折不扣完成各项任务，切实当好全省经济社会发展排头兵。 会议强调，元旦、春节将至，要统筹做好岁末年初各项工作，扎实开展重点领域安全隐患排查整治，坚 决防范遏制重特大事故发生，保障人民群众生命财产安全和社会大局稳定。 市委财经委员会委员、昆明市和滇中新区有关领导出席。市级和滇中新区有关部门和单位，各县（市） 区、开发（度假）区、自贸试验（经济合作）区负责同志参会。 本报讯 记者殷雷 朱勋航 通讯员王建报道 12月25日，市委财经委会议暨2025年四季度经济运行分析会召 开，听取有关工作汇报，分析研判当前经济形势，安排部署下步重点工作。 省委副书记、市委书记、市委财经委员会主任刘洪建主持会议并讲话，市委副书记、市长、委员会副主 任杨承新出席会议并讲话。 会议指出，今年以来，全市上下积极应对经济下行压力，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，经济 运行总体平稳，但仍存在不少问题和短板。要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会 ...

本报西宁讯 （记者 张慧慧） 12月18日，记者从西宁（国家级）经济技术开发区获悉，今年以来，西宁 开发区围绕"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"精准发力，推出一系列精准协同的务实举措筑牢区域经 济发展根基。年内已累计实现新增就业超1.14万人，推动企业融资到位资金72亿元，产业链协同合作金 额达295亿元，为区域经济高质量发展夯实了基础。 为进一步激发市场活力，西宁开发区持续优化营商环境，聚焦现代化产业体系开展精准招商，并注重前 瞻布局以稳定市场预期、凝聚发展信心。通过制定稳工业实施方案等，明确发展路径与攻坚任务，建立 重点项目"周检查、旬协调、月督办"机制，加速69项续建项目及13个总投资55.6亿元的重点项目建设。 不断完善服务保障链条，通过设立上海、北京、深圳3个区域招商专班，搭建"联点帮扶信息化平台"， 构建从项目引进到达产见效的全生命周期服务体系。同步强化风险防范机制，将130家重点企业纳入失 业动态监测范围，提前排查化解潜在风险，持续增强企业发展信心与区域经济韧性。 面对发展需求，西宁开发区将稳就业置于优先位置，构建起"政策赋能+服务护航+产教融合"的综合保 障体系。通过"一对一"驻企特派员制度， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shifted dramatically, with the previous boom giving way to declining prices, leading to uncertainty about whether to buy or wait until 2025. The economist Ma Guangyuan emphasizes the importance of understanding the "three differentiations" in the market to make informed decisions about real estate investments [1][3]. Group 1: Differentiation in the Market - Urban Differentiation: There will be a stark contrast in real estate performance between core cities and small counties. Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to maintain or slowly appreciate in value due to strong job markets and population influx, while small counties may see their properties lose value significantly [4]. - Regional Differentiation: Even within the same city, property values will vary greatly by location. Properties in prime areas will remain resilient, while those in less desirable locations may experience steep declines in value [5]. - Product Differentiation: The gap between high-quality and low-quality properties will widen. Newer, well-located homes will attract buyers, while older, poorly maintained properties will struggle to sell [7]. Group 2: Underlying Issues in the Market - Population Structure: The aging population and declining birth rates are leading to fewer potential homebuyers, which will negatively impact demand and property values, especially in less populated areas [9]. - Saturated Demand: The housing supply has largely met demand, with many capable buyers already having purchased homes. This leaves a gap for those who cannot afford to buy, further limiting market growth [11]. - Inventory Pressure: Excessive inventory in certain areas, particularly where population growth is stagnant, is leading to prolonged periods of unsold properties, which will continue to depress prices [12]. Group 3: Practical Advice for Buyers - For current homeowners: It is advisable to sell underperforming assets in declining markets, particularly in small counties, while considering the quality and location of properties in core cities [13]. - For potential buyers: Focus on high-quality properties in areas with strong population growth and economic stability, avoiding low-quality or remote properties that may not appreciate in value [15]. - Overall market strategy: The emphasis should be on making informed decisions based on market realities rather than speculation, as the market is expected to stabilize rather than experience dramatic fluctuations [16].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize economic growth and financial markets while addressing financial risks in non-bank financial institutions [2][14][23] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [2][14] - In 2026, a key focus will be on preventing and resolving financial risks in critical areas to maintain financial stability [14][23] - The PBOC aims to balance economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial risk prevention to promote high-quality economic development [14][23] Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Institutions - The PBOC's new proposal to provide liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions in specific scenarios has garnered attention [15][16] - Non-bank financial institutions, such as securities firms and asset management companies, hold significant market shares and are more susceptible to market fluctuations [16][17] - The liquidity issues faced by non-bank financial institutions are critical, as they can lead to market dysfunction during periods of stress [17][21] Group 3: Mechanism for Liquidity Support - The PBOC's liquidity support mechanism is designed to address potential market failures rather than directly influencing asset prices [18][21] - This mechanism aims to ensure that the financing chain for non-bank financial institutions remains intact during periods of market stress [18][23] - The concept of "specific scenarios" refers to market conditions characterized by price jumps, sudden financing contractions, and passive selling [20][23] Group 4: Implications for Market Functionality - The liquidity support framework is intended to prevent systemic disruptions in the market, ensuring that liquidity issues do not escalate into broader financial crises [21][23] - The PBOC's approach reflects a shift towards enhancing the resilience of the financial system rather than merely stimulating it [24][25] - Establishing a clear framework for addressing extreme market conditions is crucial for maintaining market confidence and stability [24][25]

明明(中信证券首席经济学家) 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。货币政策方面的政策基调继续维持"适度宽松"，而具体操作层面，相 较于去年中央经济工作会议"适时降准降息"的表述，本次会议提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，表述重点 更多落在政策的效率和主动性上。此外，对于宏观政策取向，相较于去年中央经济工作会议"加强超常规逆周期调节"的 基调，本次会议调整为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，或意味着后续政策改革更加基于长远经济周期变化，"存量政策 和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估"也和12月中央政治局会议对存量、增量政策集成效应的表述一脉相承，预计政 策落地成效是下一阶段央行等宏观政策部门的主要关注对象。 回顾来看，2025年以来，货币政策在适度宽松的基调上，节奏和操作上也存在明显特征。 价格方面，美联储连续降息的环境下，央行降息空间打开。2024年下半年以来，央行降息操作既有降低实际利率、支持 经济回稳向好的考虑，也有在关键时点稳定社会预期的考量。从实际利率来看，当前企业和居民面临的实际利率均处于 较高水平，随着经济内生动能自2025年下半年边际转弱，降息的必要性有所提升。此外，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined the economic work for 2026, setting a clear direction for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the futures industry [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with China successfully achieving major economic and social development goals despite complex international challenges [2][7]. - The futures industry has expanded significantly during this period, with continuous market growth, a more comprehensive futures and options product system, and improved risk management frameworks [2][7]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The conference emphasized stabilizing growth and expectations through a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will support macroeconomic stability and signal positive developments for financial markets, including the futures industry [3][8]. - Key tasks identified include domestic demand-led growth, innovation, reform, and green transformation, aligning closely with the futures industry's role in price discovery and risk management [3][8]. Group 3: Industry Development Strategy - The company aims to enhance its core mission of risk management and support for industrial development by focusing on its strengths in the mining sector and aligning with national priorities such as green and low-carbon industries [4][9]. - The company plans to develop an integrated service system that combines mining characteristics with comprehensive advantages, leveraging AI and technology to address service homogenization issues and enhance collaboration within the industry [4][9]. - The company is committed to compliance and creating value, fostering a positive industry ecosystem to enhance the recognition of the futures industry's value [4][9].

Group 1 - The relationship between real estate and consumption is clear; high real estate prices do not necessarily crowd out consumption [2] - A household's consumption ability is primarily determined by its asset level and future income expectations; current low consumption is due to the decline in real estate market affecting household assets and income confidence [2] - The long-term dangers of a real estate bubble burst must be recognized, as historical experiences indicate that it leads to prolonged declines in household balance sheets and sustained low consumption [2] Group 2 - The central government's emphasis on "stabilizing housing prices, land prices, and market expectations" is rooted in the need to stabilize asset values and market expectations to support consumption [3] - Local governments face constraints in policy execution due to historical debt burdens and limited fiscal space, which affects their ability to implement effective measures [3] - Local governments can leverage their substantial state-owned assets through professional operations and securitization to release liquidity for urban renewal and debt resolution [4] Group 3 - The market's expectations are partly affected by the lack of timely coordination of supporting policies; the handling of approximately 1.5 to 2 million unsold properties is currently too reliant on banks selling through market channels [4] - Establishing a government-led storage mechanism for unsold properties could convert them into affordable housing, helping banks mitigate financial risks while efficiently increasing the supply of affordable housing [4] - Despite demographic challenges, the annual demand for new housing in China remains reasonable at about 1.2 to 1.3 million units; however, actual supply is less than half of this level [4] - Urban renewal models such as "original demolition and reconstruction" are needed to rebuild reasonable scales and create a closed loop of risk-sharing among residents, financial institutions, and insurance companies to stabilize income expectations [4]