Core Insights - Apple is expected to surpass Samsung for the first time in over a decade, reclaiming its position as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, driven by the success of the new iPhone 17 series [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Apple's iPhone shipments are projected to grow by 10% by 2025, while Samsung's growth is only expected to be 4.6%, allowing Apple to capture 19.4% of the global smartphone market, which is anticipated to grow by 3.3% [2] - Apple has indicated that its sales growth is exceeding expectations, with holiday quarter revenues expected to approach a record $140 billion, supporting optimistic forecasts from external analysts [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The key driver for the increase in shipments is the upgrade cycle reaching a turning point, as consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic are now entering the upgrade phase [2] - An estimated 358 million used iPhones are expected to be sold from 2023 to the second quarter of 2025, with these users likely to upgrade to new iPhones in the coming years [2] Group 3: Macro Factors - Apple is benefiting from macroeconomic factors such as the easing of global trade tensions and the depreciation of the dollar, which has boosted purchasing power in emerging markets [3] - Future product launches, including a foldable iPhone in 2026 and a budget model iPhone 17e, are expected to further drive sales growth [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple will maintain its position as the world's largest smartphone seller until 2029 [4]