在新款iPhone的成功推动下，苹果公司有望十余年来首次超越三星，重新夺回全球最大智能手机制造商 的宝座。 11月25日，据媒体援引Counterpoint Research预计，今年9月发布的iPhone 17系列在美国本土和另一关键 市场中国均大获成功，吸引了大量消费者升级设备。 苹果2025年iPhone出货量将增长10%，而三星增速仅为4.6%。届时，苹果将占据全球智能手机市场 19.4%的份额，该市场整体预计增长3.3%，这将是苹果自2011年以来首次登顶。 苹果公司上月也释放了积极信号，称其销售增长快于预期，假日季度的收入有望接近创纪录的1400亿美 元，这为外部机构的乐观预测提供了支撑。 Counterpoint分析师Yang Wang指出，除了iPhone 17系列获得市场高度认可外，出货量增长的关键驱动 力在于换机周期到达拐点。 研究人员补充说，全球贸易紧张关系的缓和，以及美元贬值提振了新兴市场的购买力，都为苹果的增长 提供了助力。 展望未来，Wang预计苹果将进一步扩大领先优势。2026年即将推出的可折叠iPhone以及平价机型iPhone 17e都将助力销售增长。 据彭博此前报道，苹果预 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is not delaying the release of iPhone Air 2 due to poor sales, but rather has no plans to release it next year, indicating a shift in their product strategy [1][2] Group 1: Product Release and Strategy - Apple has removed the "17" from the iPhone Air naming convention, suggesting it is not intended for annual updates [1] - Reports of the iPhone Air 2 being postponed are inaccurate; it was never scheduled for release next year [1] - The iPhone Air is expected to account for 6% to 8% of new iPhone sales, similar to the iPhone 16 Plus [1] Group 2: Technical Features and Upgrades - The main focus for iPhone Air 2 will be the adoption of a 2nm chip, enhancing battery life, rather than significant structural changes [2] - While adding a second ultra-wide rear camera is technically feasible, it may not be practical given the crowded camera module space [2] - Future designs, such as a foldable iPhone, may incorporate dual rear cameras, which could influence standard models [2] Group 3: Future Release Timeline - Apple plans to release three high-end models, iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and a foldable model in Fall 2026 [2] - The iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and potentially the iPhone Air 2 are expected to launch in Spring 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock has shown strong performance in recent months, driven by optimism surrounding iPhone sales, with investors awaiting the upcoming earnings report to validate this enthusiasm [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Since early August, Apple's stock price has increased by over 30%, with its market capitalization rising from $3 trillion to $4 trillion [1] - The strong sales of the iPhone 17 series, which saw a 14% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 in the first 10 days of launch in the U.S. and China, have bolstered investor confidence [1] - Analysts have raised their earnings expectations for Apple by 7% and revenue expectations by 4.3% over the past three months, indicating a belief in potential earnings exceeding forecasts [1] Group 2: Future Growth Drivers - The current growth phase may be a precursor to significant future developments, including foldable iPhones and enhanced AI capabilities [4] - The growth drivers for Apple are identified as old device upgrades, price increases, and the upcoming AI features, suggesting a longer growth runway than previously anticipated [4] Group 3: Performance Context and Comparisons - Despite recent gains, Apple's stock has only risen 7.7% year-to-date in 2025, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 index, which has increased by 24% [4] - If Apple's performance exceeds expectations, it could attract more investors, especially given its recent underperformance compared to peers [5] - Apple's valuation is currently high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 33 times expected earnings, significantly above its 10-year average of 22 times, making it one of the most expensive stocks among major tech companies [5][6] Group 4: Growth Projections - Apple's revenue growth is projected at 6.2% for the last fiscal year and is expected to maintain this rate into the 2026 fiscal year, lagging behind the tech sector's anticipated growth rates of over 14% in 2025 and 13.6% in 2026 [6] - The high expectations for Apple's performance necessitate a belief that these expectations are justified for continued stock price increases [6]

Core Insights - Citi's report highlights increasing interest from long-term institutional investors in China's technology sector, focusing on quality Hong Kong-listed tech stocks, AI supply chains, and innovations in consumer electronics [1] Part 1: Global AI Supply Chain - Investors are primarily concerned with the reflection of AI-related expectations in stock prices and the selection of supply chain targets among Hong Kong and Chinese stocks [2] - Citi notes potential upside and risks, with increased capital expenditure in cloud services and AI expected in 2026, and visibility on demand improving by 2027 [2] - The preferred order of investment targets includes companies with expansion opportunities in optical modules, PCB companies with Rubin/ASIC technology upgrades, and ODM firms benefiting from AI server/switch demand growth [3] Part 2: Chinese AI Demand - Investor focus on Chinese AI centers around Alibaba's data center capital expenditure for a tenfold expansion, AI chip supply capabilities, and commercialization paths for AI investments [4] - Despite China's competitive edge in computer/data science, challenges remain in AI chip supply, with software breakthroughs seen as key to narrowing the gap [4] - Companies like GDS Holdings and Century Internet have disappointed foreign investors despite potential benefits from China's AI capital expenditure due to uncertainties in data center supply and client onboarding [4] Part 3: Consumer Electronics Supply Chain - Interest in foldable iPhones has surged, with expectations for better-than-previously forecasted performance in 2026-2027, and a price point potentially exceeding $2,500 [5] - Key beneficiaries include Lens Technology, which has a product value contribution of $140-150 per foldable iPhone, and Luxshare Precision, which is gaining attention as a quality supplier [5] - Xiaomi faces scrutiny over factory progress, stock price support levels, and the impact of storage price fluctuations on its electric vehicle business [6] Part 4: Emerging Opportunities - Interest in smart glasses is rising, recognized as important edge devices for AI commercialization, with companies like Goertek and Sunny Optical seen as key beneficiaries [7] - Domestic semiconductor capacity is expected to meet AI chip demand by 2026, but local photolithography equipment is limited to 14nm processes [7] Part 5: AI Commercialization in China - Investors believe that AI large language models struggle to monetize in the ToC sector, while the ToB sector focuses on software products for SMEs with selective demand [8] - The number of AI agents in China is expected to grow exponentially with the implementation of "AI+" policies, but market concentration is unlikely in the next 5-10 years due to the fragmented software industry [8] - Key foreign-investor targets include Kingdee International, with additional interest in cybersecurity and AI software firms like iFlytek and SenseTime [9]

Core Insights - Apple is facing significant development challenges in its efforts to create a new iPad with a large foldable screen, potentially delaying its release from 2028 to 2029 or later [1][3][6] - The anticipated price for this foldable iPad is around $3,000, which is approximately three times the cost of the current 13-inch iPad Pro [3][6] - Apple is collaborating with Samsung Display to develop an 18-inch panel that minimizes visible creases, similar to the technology used in its upcoming foldable iPhone [1][3] Development Challenges - The engineering challenges related to weight, functionality, and display technology are significant, with the prototype weighing about 3.5 pounds, comparable to a MacBook Pro [3][6] - The use of ultra-thin glass (UTG) in the foldable iPad presents manufacturing difficulties, as it is more sensitive to micro-cracks and stress compared to traditional glass [2][3] - The project is part of a broader initiative by Apple to innovate in consumer electronics, which includes the recent launch of the iPhone Air and ongoing development of AI smart glasses and desktop robots [2][6] Market Context - The foldable iPad aims to revitalize Apple's iPad product line, which has seen declining demand as consumers shift towards Mac products [6][7] - Competitors like Huawei and Samsung have already entered the foldable device market, indicating a growing consumer willingness to pay a premium for larger screens in portable designs [6][7] - Despite the potential for growth, there are uncertainties regarding the project's viability due to technical challenges and market competition [7]

Core Insights - Apple is attempting to reshape the iPad with a giant foldable screen, but development challenges may delay the release from 2028 to 2029 or later [1][2] - The foldable iPad is part of a larger plan to introduce more innovative devices, following the recent launch of the new iPhone Air [1] - The device will feature an 18-inch OLED display developed in collaboration with Samsung, aimed at minimizing fold creases [1][2] Development Challenges - The technology for the 18-inch foldable display is complex and costly, leading to an expected price of around $3000, which is three times that of the 13-inch iPad Pro [2] - Concerns regarding the weight of the foldable iPad prototype have arisen, with the test model weighing approximately 3.5 pounds, comparable to a MacBook Pro [2] - The foldable iPad's design is similar to Huawei's MateBook Fold, which is lighter and priced at about $3400, but currently only available in China [2]

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics will launch its first tri-fold smartphone at the APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, later this month [1] - The device features a dual-hinge design, allowing it to function as both a traditional smartphone and a larger tablet when fully opened [1] - The smartphone will be showcased at the Korea Advanced Technology Exhibition, but attendees may not be able to physically interact with it [1] Group 2 - Samsung aims to enhance its international reputation as an engineering pioneer by unveiling the new product at a high-profile diplomatic event [1] - The tri-fold smartphone is expected to be fully launched in late 2025, although specific timelines have not been disclosed [1] - Since entering the foldable phone market in 2019, Samsung has faced increasing competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold7, launched in July, has achieved market success due to its lighter and thinner design, showcasing the company's ongoing innovation in the foldable segment [2] - The competition in the foldable smartphone market is set to intensify with Apple's plans to release its first foldable iPhone in 2026 [2]

Core Insights - Apple CEO Tim Cook commemorated the 14th anniversary of co-founder Steve Jobs' passing, highlighting Jobs' vision of a bright future and his inspirational impact on the company [1] Product Releases - Apple recently held a special event to launch the iPhone 17 series and new wearable products, with rumors of additional product announcements in October [1] - The M5 iPad Pro has been leaked, featuring a similar design to the M4 model, with a single rear camera and four speakers, but lacking the iPad Pro branding on the back [3] - The M5 chip in the iPad Pro boasts a 9-core CPU, with a 10% increase in single-core performance and a 15% increase in multi-core performance compared to the M4, alongside a 38% improvement in GPU performance [5] - The M5 iPad Pro will come with 12GB of RAM, an upgrade from 8GB, and will run on iPadOS 26 [5] Upcoming Products - Apple is reportedly developing a new Vision Pro headset equipped with the M5 chip, featuring a redesigned headband for improved comfort and a potential new "deep space gray" color option [7] - The next generation of Apple TV is expected to feature the A17 Pro chip, a new Siri powered by Apple Intelligence, and support for Wi-Fi 7 [9] - A new version of AirTag is anticipated, with enhanced Bluetooth connectivity, low battery alerts, and a new UWB chip for improved tracking capabilities [11][13] Future Innovations - Apple is expected to unveil multiple new products this month, although it remains unclear whether these will be announced via a press event or a press release [15] - The highly anticipated foldable iPhone is projected to launch in September next year, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, featuring a book-style fold design and advanced materials for durability [15][17] - The foldable iPhone will include a dual-screen setup, a titanium and stainless steel hinge, and a near crease-free display with self-healing coating technology [17][19] - The device will replace Face ID with a Touch ID integrated side button design, and will feature a total of four cameras, including a 48MP main rear camera with sensor-shift optical image stabilization [19]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that early demand for the iPhone 17 series, which began pre-sales on September 12, indicates that shipment volumes are expected to exceed initial forecasts and potentially surpass the iPhone 16 series year-on-year [1] Group 1: iPhone Shipment Forecast - The forecast for iPhone shipments in fiscal year 2026 (October 2025 to September 2026) is set at 236 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The improved shipment outlook is expected to support iPhone revenue growth in the mid to high single digits [1] Group 2: Future Growth Projections - The introduction of foldable iPhones is anticipated to strengthen the upgrade cycle in fiscal year 2027, with pricing trends contributing to low double-digit revenue growth for iPhones [1] - Overall revenue growth for the company is projected to align with iPhone revenue growth, with a forecasted increase of 7% in fiscal year 2026 and 10% in fiscal year 2027 [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Apple from $255 to $280, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 29 times for fiscal year 2027 based on higher earnings forecasts [1]

Core Insights - Apple plans to release its first foldable iPhone, tentatively named iPhone Fold, in the fall of 2026, featuring a design similar to two iPhone Airs side by side and utilizing titanium material for a thin and premium look [1][2] Product Design and Features - The foldable iPhone will maintain the flat-edged design and minimalist style seen in this year's iPhone Air, indicating Apple's commitment to validating the foldable form factor [2] Pricing Strategy - The starting price for the foldable iPhone is expected to be at least $2000, aligning with previous estimates of $2100 to $2300, positioning it as the most expensive iPhone in Apple's history, surpassing the current Pro Max models [2]