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次高端业绩筑底,加速探索新渠道
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-22 01:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [24] Core Viewpoints - The performance of mid-to-high-end liquor is stabilizing, with companies exploring new sales channels. Major companies are expected to build momentum for future growth after a period of adjustment [6][8] - The beverage sector is witnessing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. This trend is driving the development of new products such as functional drinks and health-oriented beverages [6][8] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth due to its ability to meet emotional value and cost-performance demands from consumers [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.30% this week, with notable stock performances from Luzhou Laojiao (+4.79%), Yanghe Brewery (+4.37%), and Jiu Gui Jiu (+3.64%) [6] - The first half of 2025 is expected to see a continued decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with Jiu Gui Jiu forecasting a 43% year-on-year drop in revenue [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has recorded a cumulative decrease of 0.13% this week, with top performers including Baihe Group (+5.73%) and Huang Shang Huang (+5.12%) [8] - The beverage market is diversifying, with companies launching new products to cater to specific consumer needs, such as electrolyte water and sugar-free tea [6][8] Key Company Earnings Forecast - Guizhou Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 68.64 yuan for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20.9, and is rated as "Recommended" [23] - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.21 yuan for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15.1, also rated as "Recommended" [23] - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Three Squirrels and Dongpeng Beverage [6][23]