证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 食品饮料 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：贵州茅台业绩符合 预期，龙头韧性凸显》2025-08-19 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：国资并购上市公司 案例增多，小体量或更受青睐》2025-08-11 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：育儿补贴政策出台， 乳制品有望率先收益》2025-08-05 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：食饮持仓环比减少， 雅江项目催化白酒行情》2025-07-28 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：6 月餐饮增速放缓， 白酒有望筑底企稳》2025-07-22 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 行业及产业 中报陆续落地，板块仍处低位 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 投资建议： 白酒：随着政策压力逐渐消退，在扩消费政策、雅江项目带动基建热潮等催化下，需求有望 弱复苏，动销有望进入降幅收窄通道。行业目前处于估值低位，悲观预期充分，随着中报陆 地落地，业绩压力充分释放。头部酒企带动提高分 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 酒鬼酒 (000799.SZ) 投资评级 无评级 上次评级 [Table_A 赵丹晨 uthor 食品饮料] 行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080005 邮 箱： zhaodanchen@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 经营筑底，渠道创新 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_S 事件：公司公告 ummary]，2025 年上半年实现营收 5.61 亿元，同比减少 43.54%；归母 净利润 0.09 亿元，同比减少 92.6%；销售收现 6.85 亿元，同比减少 40.67%； 经营净现金流-2.34 亿元，同比减少 12.23%；期末合同负债 1.35 亿元，环比减 少 0.44 亿元。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ...

从财报数据来看，酒鬼酒近年来的业绩遇到了巨大的挑战。2023年、2024年公司实现营业收入分别为 28.3 亿元、14.23亿元，同比下降30.14%、49.7%；同期实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别为5.48 亿 元、0.12亿元，同比下降47.77%、97.72%。 2025年上半年，公司实现营业收入5.61亿元，同比下降43.54%；净利润895.5万元，同比下降92.60%。 每经记者｜于垚峰 每经编辑｜叶峰 8月22日晚，酒鬼酒发布了2025年上半年度报告，报告期内实现营业收入5.61亿元，同比下降43.54%； 净利润895.5万元，同比下降92.60%。公司表示，2025年上半年，白酒行业延续深度调整态势，面对行 业环境和竞争压力，公司努力强化终端建设，补齐渠道短板，梳理产品价值链，夯实销售基础，坚持费 用向C端投放，强化终端动销。 与此同时，酒鬼酒与零售标杆企业胖东来联名打造的"酒鬼·自由爱"于7月19日正式上市，并迅速成为市 场焦点，首日上线便引发抢购热潮。这款产品能否成为酒鬼酒业绩反弹的关键转折点，备受行业内外关 注。 不过，尽管业绩承压，但酒鬼酒股价在二级市场上，近期却是表现强劲，8月 ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a broad rally, with the index closing at 2537.44, up 2.5% on August 20, 2023, driven by multiple favorable factors [2][3] - Analysts attribute the rapid rise in the liquor sector to three main factors: policy signals indicating a relaxation of consumption restrictions, the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival boosting consumption expectations, and the perception of a market rebound after previous declines [2][3] - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the need to stimulate consumption and remove restrictive measures, which analysts believe has bolstered confidence in the liquor sector [3] Group 2 - The liquor sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with stocks like JiuGuiJiu and SheDeJiuYe experiencing substantial gains, attributed to their smaller market capitalization and higher elasticity [3][5] - Major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have increased their dividend payouts, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with Wuliangye planning to distribute a total of 223 billion yuan in dividends for 2024 [5] - Analysts suggest that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with leading companies adjusting their channel structures to enhance market capabilities, which may lead to growth opportunities as consumer confidence improves [6]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced pressure in the early session but rebounded strongly in the afternoon, closing higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index all reaching new highs for the year [1] - Although the trading volume decreased by approximately 180.1 billion compared to the previous trading day, it has remained above 2 trillion for six consecutive days, indicating high market participation and capital activity [1] Government Policy Signals - The State Council's ninth plenary meeting emphasized the need to continuously stimulate consumer potential, systematically remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector, and accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and new consumption [2] - A collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai has seen strong sales, leading to a surge in the stock price [2] Industry Performance - Some white liquor companies reported disappointing performance in the first half of the year, largely due to the ongoing impact of the "drinking ban" and the struggles faced by the catering industry [3] - However, these negative factors have already been reflected in the stock prices of the white liquor sector [4] Consumer Trends - With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, capital is likely to continue betting on consumption-promoting policies and positioning in large consumer stocks, including white liquor [5] - It is noted that the current consumer market trend may still represent the latter stage of improvement in the real economy's fundamentals [6] Market Dynamics - The previous market rally followed a specific path of sector rotation, starting with large financials, moving through popular and restructuring themes, and culminating in a focus on technology concepts and low-priced stocks [7] - Historical patterns are not expected to repeat exactly, and market volatility is a normal occurrence [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on market leaders such as semiconductor chips and AI applications while avoiding chasing prices and instead looking for opportunities during market fluctuations [9] - For conservative investors, sectors that have lagged in this rally but have earnings support or high dividend characteristics, such as large consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and utilities, should be considered for balanced allocation [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, with all three major indices closing in the green and reaching new highs for the year [2][4] - The market saw a total trading volume of 24,484 billion, a decrease of 1,923 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,600 stocks rising [2] Group 2 - Pop Mart experienced explosive growth in its performance, with a stock price increase of over 12%, reaching 315.6 HKD per share and a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion HKD [5][6] - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 362.8% [10] - The growth was driven by both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue increasing by 135% and overseas revenue surging by 440%, particularly in the Americas and Europe [10][13] Group 3 - The liquor sector showed strong performance, with the sector index rising by 3.73% [14][15] - The article mentions the positive impact of consumption policies on the liquor sector, particularly benefiting from the recovery of consumption scenarios and seasonal demand due to upcoming holidays [18] - A notable product, the "Jiu Gui·Free Love" collaboration, has seen significant sales, with potential annual sales exceeding 1 billion RMB, which is substantial compared to the total revenue of Jiu Gui for the first three quarters of 2024 [18] Group 4 - The semiconductor sector saw a notable increase, with stocks like Cambrian Technology rising by 8.46% and surpassing the 1,000 RMB mark, reaching a market value of 423.79 billion RMB [19][21] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 11.2% in 2025, reaching a total value of 700.9 billion USD, driven by strong demand in AI GPU and storage sectors [24]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently leaning towards a pro-cyclical theme, with significant activity in the consumer sector driven by the liquor industry, leading to gains in tourism, hotels, electronics, and dairy sectors [1] - The overall market saw a half-day trading volume exceeding 1.53 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.71% [3] Liquor Sector Performance - The liquor sector has shown a strong rebound, with all stocks in the sector rising, particularly the stock of JiuGuiJiu (000799), which hit the daily limit and achieved two consecutive limit-ups [4] - JiuGuiJiu's market capitalization is approximately 20.623 billion yuan, with a price increase of 10% to reach 63.47 yuan [2] Consumer Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector has recently performed strongly, driven by two main catalysts: the mass production of Apple's iPhone 17 and the launch of the first 8K panoramic drone by YingShi Innovation [14][15] - The sector's performance is also supported by the Shanghai government's initiative to accelerate the development of "AI + manufacturing," which aims to enhance collaboration between consumer electronics and AI companies [15] White Wine Industry Trends - The white wine industry is undergoing significant changes, focusing on product matrix diversification, channel upgrades, marketing strategies targeting new demographics, and rational development goals [6][7][8][9][10] - Major liquor companies are emphasizing low-alcohol, youth-oriented products and improving product quality to adapt to market trends [7] - The current market for white wine stocks is characterized by low expectations and valuations, with leading companies offering attractive dividend yields comparable to those in the banking, home appliance, and power sectors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing performance pressure due to a weakened demand in the liquor industry and is undergoing a transformation period, focusing on C-end sales to drive growth [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase, with a noticeable decline in consumption demand and intensified competition, leading to a more pronounced Matthew effect [1] - High-end liquor demand has significantly decreased in recent years due to the industry's weak cycle [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - The company has initiated a comprehensive market assessment and is enhancing market development through a "雷扫行动" (雷扫行动) to improve service and management levels [1] - The company has launched a "二低一小" (two low and one small) product strategy to cater to diverse market demands, focusing on low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small-sized products [1][2] - The low-end liquor strategy aims to leverage increased base liquor capacity to support mid-to-low-end product offerings, emphasizing cost-effectiveness [2] - The low-alcohol liquor strategy targets younger consumers with products that have lower alcohol content but rich flavors [2] - The small-sized product strategy focuses on expanding restaurant channels to reach more consumers and promote the brand's unique flavor [2] Group 3: Marketing and Brand Development - The company is adjusting its marketing strategy to focus on themes such as education, marriage, and sports events, enhancing the precision of marketing expenditures and sales conversion effectiveness [1] - A collaboration with the brand "胖东来" has been established to create a product that aligns with both companies' cultural values, emphasizing freedom and quality [2] Group 4: Financial Management - To maintain terminal sales, the company plans to invest in promotional activities such as scan-to-redeem red envelopes and banquet policies, which may lead to a decrease in net profit margin due to discrepancies between distributor and actual terminal sales [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments characterized by declining volume and price, policy impacts, and a focus on high-quality development [2] - The competition for the younger market is intensifying among major liquor brands, with a shift towards lower-alcohol products to cater to the preferences of younger consumers [5] - The market for light bottle liquor is rapidly growing, with major brands entering this segment to capture new consumer demographics [17] Industry Environment - The first half of 2025 will see the liquor industry facing deep adjustments, marked by seven key characteristics: consumption recovery, channel inventory, pricing systems, high-quality development, simultaneous decline in volume and price, significant policy impacts, and product innovation [2] - The trend towards smaller capacity and larger bottle sizes is emerging, with small bottles (50ml-250ml) gaining traction among younger consumers, while larger bottles (1L and above) are being used for special occasions [2] - The low-alcohol liquor segment is gaining popularity, with major brands launching products aimed at younger consumers, reflecting a strategic shift towards youth-oriented marketing [5] Top Brand News - Tibet Development Co. plans to acquire a 50% stake in Lhasa Beer from Carlsberg, aiming to enhance its asset integrity and operational capabilities [8] - Yanghe's collaboration with the Scottish Premier League has led to the launch of a football-themed product, enhancing brand engagement through cultural innovation [8] - Water Well's sales volume increased by 14.54% in the first half of 2025, driven by a focus on mid-to-high-end products despite the overall industry downturn [12] - The introduction of the "窖藏里的三餐四季" IP by Xijiu aims to connect with consumers on an emotional level, promoting a lifestyle approach to liquor consumption [13] - The light bottle liquor market has surpassed 150 billion yuan, with major brands competing aggressively in the 50-100 yuan price range [17]

Group 1: Company Performance and Challenges - The company's performance in the first half of the year has been under pressure due to a weakened demand in the white liquor market and intensified competition, leading to a pronounced Matthew effect [2] - The company is undergoing a transformation period, focusing on C-end sales to drive growth, which requires time to yield results [2] - The company has implemented a "雷扫行动" (雷扫行动) to enhance market development and improve service and management levels [2] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company has initiated a "二低一小" (two low and one small) product strategy, which includes low-end liquor, low-alcohol liquor, and small liquor products [2][3] - The low-end liquor strategy aims to leverage increased production capacity to support mid-to-low-end product offerings, emphasizing cost-effectiveness [3] - The low-alcohol liquor is designed to appeal to younger consumers, featuring low alcohol content without compromising flavor [3] Group 3: Collaborations and Market Positioning - The collaboration with 胖东来 (Pang Donglai) on the 酒鬼·自由爱 (Jiu Gui: Free Love) product is based on shared values and cultural alignment [3] - The company has established a cooperative plan with 胖东来, with ongoing progress in various aspects of the partnership [3] Group 4: Pricing and Profitability - The company is focusing on stabilizing the pricing strategy for its internal reference series due to a decline in high-end liquor demand, prioritizing price stability over volume growth [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be low due to significant marketing expenditures aimed at boosting terminal sales and reducing inventory [3]