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美联储降息箭在弦上!非农即将一锤定音?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-01 03:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report may be the only factor preventing the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in the near future, but this possibility is considered very slim [1] - The U.S. job market has significantly cooled since the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added per month from May to July, marking the lowest three-month increase since the pandemic began in 2020 [1] - Wall Street's expectations for the August job market are pessimistic, with forecasts predicting only 75,000 new jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a near four-year high [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the deterioration of the labor market is sufficient to support a recent interest rate cut, emphasizing that "downside risks to the labor market are rising" [1] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has surged to 90% following Powell's remarks, which were interpreted as dovish signals [1] - Recent employment reports from the U.S. government have frequently undergone significant revisions, with the initial report for May and June showing 291,000 new jobs, later revised down to only 33,000, a staggering adjustment of 88.6% [1] Group 3 - The upcoming quarterly employment and wage survey may lead to a downward adjustment of employment growth data for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, with Wall Street predicting an overestimation of up to 800,000 jobs [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dual mandate of controlling inflation and promoting employment, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year-over-year in July, still above the 2% target [2] - The best-case scenario for financial markets would be a moderate increase in employment numbers with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, indicating that the economy is not in recession while justifying a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 4 - Investors are trying to determine when "bad news is good news" and when "bad news is just bad news" as the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September [3] - The distinction lies in understanding why the Federal Reserve would cut rates and what the implications of such cuts would be for the economy and markets [3]