摆脱超常规
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张瑜:摆脱“超常规”,春水向“中游”——张瑜旬度会议纪要No.128
一瑜中的· 2025-12-19 15:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift from "extraordinary measures" to a more balanced approach in economic policy, focusing on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to stabilize growth while transitioning to long-term reforms [3][4] - The economic work meeting indicates a more stable and slightly positive judgment on external conditions, suggesting that China has gained an advantage in trade disputes, with exports maintaining a growth rate of 5.4% over the past 11 months [4] - The pressure to prevent financial risks has significantly decreased, with the focus on risk prevention being moved to a lower priority in the agenda, indicating a shift in policy focus towards reform and opening up [4][5] Group 2 - Fiscal support is expected to remain stable with a slight decrease, aligning budget expenditure growth with economic growth targets, and maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% for 2026 [5][7] - The policy focus has shifted from "insufficient domestic demand" to "strong supply and weak demand," indicating a dual approach to manage both supply and demand sides, with an emphasis on price stability [8] - The judgment on economic conditions for 2026 suggests a decline in M2 growth due to various factors, making it more challenging to boost valuations in the capital market [9][10] Group 3 - The investment strategy remains bullish on stocks while being cautious on bonds, driven by improving supply-demand balance and lower market volatility, indicating a preference for equities over fixed income [11]