1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the cost - support for copper prices from the tight ore supply remains. On the supply side, limited by the tight raw material supply, the output at the end of 2025 only increased slightly, and the output at the beginning of 2026 is also generally stable, with a relatively sufficient domestic supply. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Coupled with the previous high - level operation of copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, mainly for rigid demand purchases. Recently, as copper prices have declined from high levels, the downstream adopts a strategy of buying on dips. Therefore, with relatively cautious demand, the off - season effect leads to continuous inventory accumulation of refined copper in the social inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and cautious demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the social inventory. In terms of options, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0079, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly expanding. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 100,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 580.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,753.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 56.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 222,467.00 lots, a decrease of 1320.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 54,818.00 lots, a decrease of 2916.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 159,400.00 tons, an increase of 3100.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 213,515.00 tons, an increase of 32,972.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 46,825.00 tons, a decrease of 975.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 143,173.00 tons, a decrease of 2856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 100,070.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 100,295.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 22.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 630.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 590.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 29.11 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 130.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 46.53 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,590.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,290.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, an increase of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, an increase of 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.06%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.38%, an increase of 0.12%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 22.88%, a decrease of 0.0050; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.54, a decrease of 0.0079 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until the end of Fed Chairman Powell's term in May. This view has changed significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, two aspects of work will be focused on to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry: orderly promoting the construction of "good houses" and accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model and building basic systems for real estate development, financing, and sales. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to address the problem of abnormally low prices in government procurement, which will take effect on February 1, 2026. As of the end of December 2025, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 2.0092 billion, exceeding 2 billion. China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network, meeting the charging needs of over 40 million new energy vehicles. In 2026, the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in industries such as industry, energy and power, education, medical care, grain and oil processing, customs inspection, old residential elevators, energy conservation and environmental protection, and recycling, driving total investment of over 460 billion yuan. At the same time, funds will be directly allocated to local governments to support the scrapping and renewal of old commercial trucks, the renewal of new energy city buses, and the scrapping and renewal of old agricultural machinery [2].