沪铜日评20251127:美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价 | 2025-11-18 较昨日变动 | | | 变重名称 2025-11-26 | | 2025-11-25 | | | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -10.00 | | | 86590 | | 86600 | 85650 | | | | 成交堂(手) | | | 107213 | | 86982 | 86217 | 20, 231. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) | | | 204728 | | 199582 | 164396 | 5,146.00 | | | 库存(吨) | | | 39825 | | 40965 | 60874 | -1,140.00 | | | 沪铜县差 | | | 65 | | 10 | 355 | 55.00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜一半均价 | | | 86655 | | 86610 | 86005 | 45.00 | | | SMM + 水铜开贴水一半均价 | | | 35 | | 30 | 30 | 5.0 ...

沪铝减仓进一步回调，铝锭库存持平，铝棒、板带箔稍去库，下游消费尚可，对高价接受度有所提升，短期或呈震荡走 势。海内外产能逐渐通电投产，预计26年初供需偏宽松，随后逐渐转紧。 有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/27 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/20 85 2537 115035 54983 -503.28 153.32 33.0 48.0 -18.89 157925 9475 2025/11/21 100 2233 115035 49790 -632.80 546.36 34.0 50.0 1.06 155025 6625 2025/11/24 90 2352 115035 43816 -1067.61 115.73 34.0 50.0 24.88 155750 5525 2025/11/25 90 2625 115035 40965 -787.48 156.46 32.0 48.0 9.52 156575 5625 ...

。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | 2025-11-18 较昨日变动 | | | 变重名称 2025-11-26 | | 2025-11-25 | | | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -10.00 | | | 86590 | | 86600 | 85650 | | | | 成交堂(手) | | | 107213 | | 86982 | 86217 | 20, 231. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) | | | 204728 | | 199582 | 164396 | 5,146.00 | | | 库存(吨) | | | 39825 | | 40965 | 60874 | -1,140.00 | | | 沪铜县差 | | | 65 | | 10 | 355 | 55.00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜一半 ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 1. 商务部部长王文涛与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈，就安世半导体等 经贸问题深入交换意见。双方一致同意，企业是解决安世半导体问题的主体，将共同敦促安世荷兰 与安世中国尽快开展建设性沟通，找到长期解决方案，尽快恢复全球半导体产供链的畅通与稳定。 双方还就中欧出口管制等问题交换了意见。 2. 万科遭遇股债"双杀"行情。周三，万科多只境内债券盘中大跌，"22 万科 02"一度跌超 35% ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 27 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（11 月 26 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.15%，收报 3864.18 点； 深证成指涨 1.02%，收报 12907.83 点；创业板指涨 2.14%，收报 3044.69 点。沪深两市成交额 17833 亿，较昨日 小幅缩量 288 亿。 沪深 300 指数 11 月 26 日震荡趋强。收盘 4517.63，环比上涨 27.22。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1662.8，环比下跌 22.4。 11 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1124.9 元，环比下跌 10.4。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭四轮提涨落地。宏观，11 月 24 日，韩国宣布自公告当日起，对中国产中厚板及合金钢板热轧厚 板加征反倾销关税，实施期限为 5 年。需求端，本期铁水产量 236.28，-0.60 万吨，焦炭总的库存较同期偏高。 利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 19 元/吨。 焦煤： ...

每经AI快讯，11月26日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.13%，沪银涨1.08%，沪铜涨 0.59%，沪铝涨0.72%，焦煤涨1.07%，玻璃涨1.46%，橡胶涨0.56%。 ...

对于未来铜价走势，新湖期货较为乐观，认为中期自由港印尼矿山事故导致减产的量级和时间均大幅超 出市场预期，铜需求在新领域消费的提振下韧性较强，26年全球铜供需将进入实质性短缺。铜价重心有 望持续上移，可考虑逢低建仓。关注今晚公布的美国PCE数据。 （文华综合） 沪铜夜盘冲高回落，日内窄幅震荡，收盘上涨0.2%。美联储降息预期和矿紧对价格的支撑较强，但前 期高价抑制需求，最近社库有所去化，暂时缺乏更多上行动力。 目前国内铜精矿现货加工费持续低迷，临近年底市场关注焦点在于国内冶炼厂和海外矿商对于加工费的 长单谈判结果。最近两个月国内精铜产量出现下滑，矿紧局面对冶炼端的影响或有显现。另外，据 SMM了解，智利国家铜业（Codelco)对2026年CIF中国电解铜长单基准价报于350美元/吨，较2025年89 美元/吨上涨261美元/吨。 此前铜价偏弱震荡，下游需求好转，现货维持升水局面，国内社会库存也出现不断去化一幕。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in positions. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and the weakening US dollar index is favorable for copper prices. There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas inventories accumulating marginally and domestic inventories decreasing marginally. Technically, focus on the multi - empty game at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and today they stabilized in a volatile manner. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, and non - ferrous metals have generally stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum's rebound is relatively small, positions are continuously decreasing, and market attention is waning. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 21,500 yuan mark [8]. - **沪镍**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then maintained a high - level volatile trend, and today they were strongly volatile, once reaching the 118,000 yuan mark. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, leading to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Last week, nickel prices decreased significantly with increasing positions, and the spot premium continued to strengthen. In the short term, the market has warmed up, and short - covering has pushed up nickel prices. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, Codelco's benchmark price for the 2026 CIF long - term contract of electrolytic copper in China is set at $350 per ton, a rise of $261 per ton compared to $89 per ton in 2025 [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 117,300 and 122,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 119,850 yuan per ton, a rise of 1,300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 4,400 and 4,900 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan per ton, a rise of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between 0 and 500 yuan per ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

沪铜产业日报 2025/11/26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,590.00 | -10.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,893.50 | +75.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -10.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 204,728.00 | +5146.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -22,92 ...

Hot News - Since the second term of President Trump, the Chinese and US heads of state have maintained regular exchanges. The recent call, initiated by the US, had a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere, which is important for the stable development of Sino-US relations [2] - Maersk's CEO is encouraged by the peace process in Gaza. Navigation freedom in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has been established, and trade routes have returned to normal. The Suez Canal is the preferred passage for Maersk and its customers [2] - A US official said that the Ukrainian delegation has reached an agreement on the terms of a possible peace deal with the US, with some minor details remaining [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the economy needs significant interest rate cuts and hopes employment data will convince other Fed members to do so. The Fed should quickly lower interest rates to a neutral level [2] - US private-sector employers cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, an acceleration from the previous week's data showing a loss of 2,500 jobs per week [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are lithium carbonate, corn, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 3.16%, precious metals 29.30%, oilseeds 9.90%, non-ferrous metals 22.26%, soft commodities 2.87%, coal, coking, and steel ore 12.79%, energy 3.06%, chemicals 11.08%, grains 1.42%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.16% [3] Plate Holdings - The chart shows the five-day changes in commodity futures plate holdings from November 19 to November 25, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% daily, -2.14% monthly, and 15.46% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, -0.05% monthly, and 29.09% annually [5] - In the fixed-income category, the 10-year Treasury futures fell 0.08% daily, -0.42% monthly, and -0.65% annually [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.54% daily, -2.69% monthly, and -0.79% annually; London spot gold fell 0.07% daily, rose 3.23% monthly, and 57.46% annually [5] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index fell 0.39% daily, rose 0.08% monthly, and fell 7.99% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, rose 17.66% monthly, and 18.27% annually [5] Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and more [6]