1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a solid cost - support logic for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices fall due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 97,030.00 yuan/ton, up 1,690.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,483.00 US dollars/ton, up 100.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 186,251.00 lots, up 502.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 61,409.00 lots, down 6,271.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 362,425.00 tons, down 175.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 359,135.00 tons, down 51,986.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,750.00 tons, up 150.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 212,893.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 587,166.00 short tons, down 955.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 96,855.00 yuan/ton, up 1,255.00 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 97,025.00 yuan/ton, up 1,290.00 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) bonded warehouse price is 68.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 61.00 US dollars/ton, down 4.00 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 175.00 yuan/ton, down 435.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 79.46 US dollars/ton, up 3.09 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 68.85 US dollars/kiloton, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 87,290.00 yuan/metal ton, up 1,290.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 87,990.00 yuan/metal ton, up 1,290.00 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,100.00 yuan/ton, down 700.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700.00 yuan/ton, down 700.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000.00 tons, down 60,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 63,340.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,450.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,250.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 million pieces, up 415,345.50 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump said he is willing to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, believing the war with Iran is likely to end soon, and other countries can reopen the Strait of Hormuz without US military assistance. US Defense Secretary Hedgeseth said the US's "top priority" is to seek an agreement to end the war with Iran. Iranian President Pezeshkiyan said Iran is willing to end the war on the condition that its demands are met, especially getting a guarantee of no more aggression. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar in Beijing, and they exchanged views on the situation in the Gulf and the Middle East and put forward five initiatives: immediately stop hostilities, start peace talks as soon as possible, ensure the safety of non - military targets, ensure the safety of shipping lanes, and ensure the primary status of the UN Charter. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank held its first - quarter regular meeting, studying the main ideas of the next - stage monetary policy, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy control, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation. The meeting pointed out that all kinds of structural monetary policy tools should be used well and tool management should be optimized to maintain the stable operation of the financial market. - China's economic prosperity level has rebounded. In March, as the resumption of work and production accelerated after the Spring Festival, both production and demand expanded simultaneously. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, reaching 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month. - According to data released by the Ministry of Finance, from January to February, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 12.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 626.62 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. At the end of February, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.5 percentage points. - Kansas Fed President Schmid warned that the Fed should not ignore the impact of soaring energy prices caused by the Iran conflict on inflation. He said, "Given that inflation is already high, we should not assume that the inflation caused by rising oil prices is only temporary." He is worried that the inflation rate will stay around 3%. - According to UN analysis, the disruption caused by the Iran war may lead to a GDP loss of 120 - 194 billion US dollars in Arab countries, an increase of up to 4 percentage points in the regional unemployment rate, a loss of about 3.6 million jobs, and push up to 4 million people into poverty. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the conflict continues until the end of April, the GDP of Qatar and Kuwait may shrink by 14% this year, and the GDP of Saudi Arabia and the UAE may decline by about 3% and 5% respectively [2].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that precious metals are gaining traction amid recession expectations, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.4% and 3.4% respectively, while industrial metals show mixed performance [1][3] - The energy and chemical sectors are experiencing a downturn, with crude oil and fuel prices dropping by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, and chemical products like PVC and methanol seeing declines of 4.5% to 5.4% [1] - A significant capital outflow of 14.3 billion yuan from commodity indices has been noted, with the precious metals sector attracting over 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the oil market, driven by geopolitical tensions and mixed signals regarding military actions in the Gulf region, which contribute to fluctuating prices [2] - The market is transitioning from a narrative of high oil prices driving inflation to one where high oil prices may suppress demand and lead to economic slowdown, with upcoming employment data expected to validate this shift [3] - The report notes that the volatility of gold remains high, with a historical volatility rate of 42.7, suggesting that investors should exercise patience in positioning within the precious metals market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed lower, with a decline on the day. The shortage of copper resources due to tight overseas copper mines and difficult shipments still supports the copper price. The substitution of recycled copper has declined, and the production of electrolytic copper has increased. The demand for copper products has started to pick up, but the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. However, the Shanghai copper is under pressure from overseas imports, and its support is somewhat weak [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In terms of futures, Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, with a decline on the day. In terms of spot, the spot premium in East China was - 50 yuan/ton, and in South China was 95 yuan/ton. On March 30, 2026, the LME official price was 12,220 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 83 US dollars/ton [1][4]. 2. Supply - side - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 69.22 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [1][7]. 3. Demand - side - After entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the start - up of copper products has increased. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year [1]. 4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 221,300 tons, a decrease of 9,710 tons from the previous period. As of March 30, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 362,400 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 588,100 short tons, a decrease of 798 short tons from the previous period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with some commodities like lithium carbonate and container shipping European routes experiencing significant drops, while some precious metals and agricultural products showed gains [6][7] - The market is significantly influenced by the Middle - East situation, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US - Iran conflict, which has an impact on the supply and price of commodities such as crude oil, asphalt, PP, and plastic [12][13][14] - The supply and demand patterns of various commodities are different. Some commodities are facing supply shortages due to external factors, while some are in a state of relatively balanced supply and demand or have inventory pressure [9][11][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 31, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 8%, container shipping European routes dropped nearly 7%, and LPG dropped nearly 6%. On the upside, silver futures rose over 3%, and gold futures and soybeans rose over 1% [6][7] - In terms of stock index futures, most contracts declined, while most treasury bond futures contracts rose or remained flat [7] - In terms of capital flow, silver 2606, CSI 2606, and ten - year treasury bond 2606 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, crude oil 2605, and palm oil 2605 had capital outflows [7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper opened high and closed low. Although the shortage of copper ore resources supports the price, the terminal demand feedback is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The CSPT did not set a reference price for the second - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - It opened low and closed low, with a nearly 8% decline. The supply side has potential increases, and the demand side's growth rate has slowed down. The situation of lithium mines in Zimbabwe and China will affect the market [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - The US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz issue, has a significant impact on the price. The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, and the risk of price increase still exists [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The supply side is under pressure, with a decline in the start - up rate and planned production. The demand side is gradually recovering. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate is slowly recovering, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a low level. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The start - up rate is at a low level, and the downstream is gradually resuming production. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream has a resistance to high - priced raw materials. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. It is recommended to wait and see [20][22] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - It opened low and closed low. The domestic mine production is recovering, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The market has a low acceptance of high - price coking coal, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the crude oil and conflict situation [23] 3.2.9 Urea - It opened low and closed low, with a weak performance. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is mainly from compound fertilizer factories. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the impact of the situation change is small [24][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a strong cost - support for copper prices. The capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are stocking up at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and improved demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the green column is slightly expanding. The suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 95,340 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 12,238 dollars/ton, up 43 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 185,749 hands, up 479 hands; the position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai copper is - 61,409 hands, down 6,271 hands. LME copper inventory is 362,600 tons, up 2,350 tons; the warehouse - receipt cancellation of LME copper is 67,600 tons, up 4,925 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 221,261 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 588,121 short tons, down 798 short tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 95,600 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 95,735 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER): bonded warehouse price is 68.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 65 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 82.55 dollars/ton, down 11.69 dollars [2]. 2. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 dollars/kiloton, down 1.53 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 86,000 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,700 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. 3. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,940 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.9 million tons, up 0.3 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the tax - refund for outbound tourists 2.0, introduce measures to expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and promote the continuous warming of "shopping in China". It will also promote the development of the automotive aftermarket and support the development of leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping in qualified areas. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% from January, and the market growth rate is gradually returning. - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, promote the reform of automobile circulation and consumption, and implement a quality - improvement and people - benefiting action for service consumption. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact of the energy shock caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran. But he also warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by. - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position. The Middle East conflict may bring a major supply shock, which will both push up price pressure and suppress economic activity. He implied that the Fed's most appropriate response at present is to take no action for the time being. - Fed Governor Milan continued to call for interest rate cuts, saying that policymakers should ignore the current rise in energy prices unless there are signs of long - term impact. Milan still believes that interest rates can be cut by 100 basis points this year [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to hit new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a relatively solid cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventories in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices decline due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 95,760 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,228 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 185,270 lots, down 2,125 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 55,138 lots, up 900 lots; the LME copper inventory is 360,250 tons, up 425 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 62,675 tons, up 9,975 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 230,971 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 588,919 short tons, down 796 short tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 95,195 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 95,315 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) price for bonded warehouses is 68.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 70.86 US dollars/ton, down 0.65 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 US dollars per thousand tons, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,590 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,290 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. US Vice - President Vance says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon after handling current affairs. Vance believes the US has achieved all military goals, and the military operation has not ended because President Trump wants to ensure Iran completely loses the ability to threaten the US [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Car Association, the global automobile sales volume in 2025 was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The world automobile sales volume in February 2026 reached 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The world automobile sales volume from January to February 2026 reached 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected growth rate of the Chinese auto market, the growth of the world auto market sales volume slowed down significantly from January to February 2026. The Chinese auto market has generally performed well in recent years, and its share has continued to increase. From 2020 to 2023, China's share in the world market increased to 33.8%, in 2024 it reached 34.2%, in 2025 it reached 35.4%, and in 2026 it reached 29.7%, a significant decline compared with 2025. The overseas environment for self - owned brands going global is good, with many countries in a period of low penetration rate and large market space. The speed determines the effect. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume increased by 0.1%, among which the Chinese automobile sales volume decreased by 9%, the Indian automobile market sales volume increased by 11%, the Thai automobile market increased by 64%, the Russian market sales volume decreased by 7%, and some South American markets performed well. The potential of Chinese car companies in many other underdeveloped small countries is still huge [2]. - The China Association for Quality and Safety Promotion of Consumer Goods launched the "2026 Series of Actions to Improve the Quality and Safety of Online - sold Products", aiming to guide the industry out of "involution - style" competition and better protect the quality of online - sold products and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. After selection, a total of 11 major categories and 41 types of products were determined for monitoring, including household appliances, electronic appliances, electric bicycles, lithium batteries, etc. [2]. - The European Federation for Transport and Environment released a report stating that affected by the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the fuel cost of the global shipping industry has risen significantly, which not only increases the industry's operating pressure but also provides an opportunity to accelerate energy transformation. The report shows that since February 28, the cumulative additional fuel cost of the global shipping industry has exceeded 4.6 billion euros [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, and there is a significant inventory reduction in China. The Shanghai copper market is temporarily in a state of oscillation [1] - The copper market is affected by multiple factors, including macro - level negatives, demand - side positives, and supply - side neutral factors [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Price Data - The Shanghai copper futures price has rebounded in a volatile manner this week, but the increase is limited [9] - The copper spot price is driven by consumption, and the discount has gradually stabilized [12] 02 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has dropped by $1.53 per ton week - on - week to -$68.85 per ton, continuing to decline [16] - The copper concentrate port inventory is 458,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,000 tons, and it is lower than the same period last year [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded this week [20] - The estimated electrolytic copper production in China in March is nearly 1.2 million tons, a record high, with a month - on - month increase of 4.62% and a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [22] - The cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products in China from January to February is 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [23] - The electrolytic copper spot inventory has decreased significantly this week, but it is still higher than the same period last year, and the bonded area inventory continues to decline [25] - The LME copper inventory continues to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory remains stable [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods remains at a high level, but new orders are suppressed due to the rebound of Shanghai copper [28] - From March 1st to 22nd, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China decreased by 17% year - on - year [32] - The component production in March fell short of expectations, and some enterprises' orders decreased due to export restrictions [33] - The total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in April decreased by 3.6% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [34] 03 Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [38] - The US composite PMI in March unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, and the growth of the service industry slowed down [41] - The president of the Chicago Fed said that there may be a situation where interest rates need to be raised [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed lower but ended the day with gains. The shortage of copper ore resources due to tight overseas resources and shipping difficulties caused by war supports copper prices. The substitution of recycled copper has declined. The production of electrolytic copper increased in March. The demand in the copper product sector has started to pick up during the peak season, but the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate due to news - related stimuli [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, ending the day with gains. In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. The mainstream refined - scrap copper price difference has decreased. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. The copper product sector's demand has started to pick up during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. The copper cable industry's开工 rate in February was 55.81%, a 14.29 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 9.06 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The new energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year. The inventory decreased by 5.15% compared to last week. The market is expected to fluctuate due to news - related stimuli [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, ending the day with gains. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was 105 yuan/ton. On March 26, 2026, the LME official price was $12,189/ton, and the spot premium was - $81/ton [4]. 3. Supply - side - As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $69.22/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 237,100 tons, a decrease of 9,365 tons from the previous period. As of March 23, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 74,400 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 589,700 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on March 27, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like pure benzene and lithium carbonate had significant increases, while others such as container shipping on the European route and caustic soda declined. Futures contracts of stock indexes and treasury bonds also had different trends. The market was affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The prices of most commodities were expected to be volatile due to the tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which had a great impact on the supply of energy - related commodities. Some commodities were expected to have a strong - side oscillation, but risks needed to be controlled [12][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of March 27, pure benzene and lithium carbonate rose by over 6%, styrene (EB) and ethylene glycol (EG) rose by over 5%, and methanol rose by over 4%. Container shipping on the European route fell by over 3%, and caustic soda and silver futures fell by over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate inventory was relatively low. The production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand from the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate due to the situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose by over 6% on March 27. The production in March decreased month - on - month. The import volume in February increased year - on - year. The downstream lithium battery production was in high - growth, but the retail of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The market was affected by the situation in Zimbabwe and the overall upward trend of non - ferrous metals, but there were potential supply risks [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The U.S. crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, which led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the situation was still tense. The possibility of a U.S. - Iran negotiation was low, and the oil price was at a high - risk of fluctuation [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the planned production in April was significantly lower. The downstream demand started to recover after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [15]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream PP开工率 increased slightly, but the demand recovery was slow. The enterprise开工率 was at a low level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 decreased, and the downstream开工率 increased but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [18][20]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 also increased but was still lower than the same period last year. The export price increased, but the inventory was still high. The industry had an anti - involution expectation, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price decreased on March 27. The mine production resumed smoothly, and the inventory was transferred from mines to downstream. The price decline was a correction after the previous over - rise, and the downward space was expected to be limited [22][23]. - **Urea**: The urea price rose on March 27. The domestic supply was guaranteed by high production and state - reserve goods. The downstream demand was mainly from compound fertilizer factories and other industries. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to oscillate at a narrow high level [24].