这篇文章分析二手房市场迎来"价值重估"，最近不少城市出现了一个有趣现象，同一个小区，新房价格挂得高高的，二手房却便宜不少，这种"价格倒挂"在 过去难以想象，房地产市场正在经历深刻变化，从追求新房到关注二手房，人们的购房观念在悄然转变。 市场格局正在重塑 全国住房城乡建设工作会议传递出明确信号，房地产市场仍有发展潜力，但发展方式必须转变，"高质量"成为关键词。 会议特别提到要推动房地产高质量发展，这不仅是口号，更是行业转型的方向，存量房优化调整被摆在重要位置，说明政策层面已经关注到二手房市场的关 键作用。 二手房交易占整个房地产市场的比重逐年提升，在一些重点城市，二手住宅成交面积已经超过新房。 存量房迎来"升级时代" 老旧小区改造在全国范围内持续推进，北京2023年新开工老旧小区改造项目超过300个，惠及居民数十万户，改造内容从最初的外墙保温、加装电梯，扩展 到管线更新、环境整治、服务提升等多个方面。 上海在老旧小区改造中探索出多种模式，政府主导、企业参与、居民共治的"三驾马车"协同发力，改造后的小区不仅面貌焕然一新，物业管理水平也得到提 高，房屋价值得到提升，居民满意度显著增加。 这种结构性变化意味着，稳定房 ...

报告导读： 十四五和十五五期间，党中央对地产行业发展要求，房地产行业总量所处阶段 存在明显差异。房地产行业高质量发展要求的提出，从防风险、提品质、促转型等多维度 为行业提供纲领性指引。我们认为未来五年行业将步入提质增效发展新阶段，看好行业迈 入格局和盈利稳定，蓝筹基本面持续优化阶段。 当前 AH 房地产板块总市值与行业在经济中所处地位不匹配 ，推荐 ： 1 ）开发类； 2 ）商住类； 3 ）物业类； 4 ）文旅类 。 行业环境变化，十五五提出新目标。 十四五前端行业政策以降杠杆、缩总量，防止泡沫扩大甚至压降泡沫为主，以上政策导向下，行业总量大幅回落。伴随 产能和市场杠杆水平逐步回归合理水平，十四五后端中央政策开始逐步推动行业平稳触底。从要求上，明确表达"着力稳定房地产市场"、"止跌回稳"等清晰 表态。我们认为，高质量发展要求的提出，代表十五五和十四五期间中央对房地产发展要求存在变化。基于全球成熟国家历史经验，中国自身人口和国情，我 们认为十五五期间行业需求有望企稳回升，维持在 7-8 亿平区间。 高质量发展意义深刻要求前瞻，六大任务指示明确蓄势待发。 面对行业供需关系与经济环境深刻变化，人民、经济和行业对房地 ...

南都·湾财社：2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，房地产"从规模扩张到品质深耕"的转型已进入关键期， 您认为这一年行业最确定的宏观趋势是什么？未来五年房地产将怎么走？ 宋丁：房地产行业经过2021年至今四年多的调整，整体呈现走低态势，行业正面临重大转型。2026年作 为"十五五"开局之年，房地产转型尤为关键。年初《求是》杂志发表的关于房地产的文章，提出"改善 和稳定房地产市场预期"，精准点明了当前行业发展的核心方向。 关于2026年房地产最确定的发展路线，核心就是"改善和稳定房地产市场预期"，且在这一方向中，"改 善"比"稳定"更为重要。此前多年强调"稳预期"但未达目标，核心原因就在于"改善"层面的工作落实不 到位。要推动房地产在2026年实现筑底反弹、稳步推进，需从五个维度落实"改善"工作： 2026年，是国家"十五五"规划的开局之年，这一新五年规划系统性勾勒出中国至2030年的发展蓝图。新 旧动能转换、发展范式升级、全球格局重塑，都将在这一时期找到新的交汇点。 理解"十五五"的顶层设计，是预见未来经济脉动与市场机遇的起点。时代的机遇藏在哪里？未来中国经 济增长的核心动力如何精准判断？值此开年之际，南都湾财社 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, highlighting specific stocks in various categories such as development, commercial residential, property management, and cultural tourism [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift in the real estate industry from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, driven by the new requirements set forth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which aims for high-quality development [1][13]. - It identifies six key tasks to achieve high-quality development, including optimizing affordable housing supply and enhancing property service quality [1][61]. Summary by Sections 1. High-Quality Development as a New Requirement - The report discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, transitioning from a supply-demand imbalance to a potential oversupply situation, necessitating a focus on high-quality development [3][6]. - It outlines the central government's shift in policy from reducing leverage and total volume to stabilizing the real estate market and promoting quality [6][7]. 2. Understanding High-Quality Development - The report defines high-quality development as essential for meeting the people's aspirations for a better life, advancing modernization, and facilitating the transformation of the real estate industry [22][24]. - It presents three major significances, four key requirements, and six essential tasks for high-quality development [21][28]. 3. Policy Expectations for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The report anticipates that future policies will focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation in the development sector [62]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between short-term market stabilization and long-term structural reforms [36][60]. 4. Six Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - The report outlines six tasks: optimizing affordable housing supply, promoting sustainable market development, reforming development and financing systems, enhancing housing quality, improving property service quality, and establishing a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [61][62].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]

最近两年，聊房价，大家基本就两个极端： 要么说"还要跌"，要么说"到底了，马上反弹"。 现象一：整体"止跌回稳+窄幅波动"，普涨很难再见 先看大方向。 2025年的楼市，整体上已经在"稳"的路上： 全国商品房销售面积降幅比2024年明显收窄，价格虽然还在跌，但跌幅已经变小，二手房累计跌了大约 7%左右，属于"以价换量"阶段； 中央经济工作会议和住建部反复强调：要"着力稳定房地产市场""推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，关键是不 硬着陆，而不是再拉一波暴涨。 尤其是关于2026年，不少机构和专家集中提到了一个说法——"2026年前后有望止跌回稳"。 那问题来了： 止跌回稳，是不是又要回到以前那种翻几倍的时代？还是说，只是换个说法继续磨底？ 从最近的报告、会议和专家观点来看，更接近第二种情况。而且，内行人嘴里，2026年的房价大概率会 出现这3种"现象"。你提前搞清楚，对买房、卖房、换房都有帮助。 现象二：城市之间、板块之间，"分化到夸张程度" 真正要小心的，是第二个现象： 多家机构的预测也比较一致： 2026年，全国整体房价大概率是在−3%到+2%这个小区间里窄幅盘整，整体很难再出现那种"闭眼买都 能涨"的行情。 简单 ...

Policy News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued opinions on improving housing quality, aiming for significant progress by 2030 in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation levels [1] - The policy emphasizes the construction of quality affordable housing and the transformation of old houses into "good houses" [1] Tax Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [2] Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foundational system for real estate credit, focusing on the implementation of financial policies to support the stable development of the real estate market [3] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which will focus on generating stable cash flows through asset-backed securities [4] Regional Development - Shenzhen's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality real estate development, targeting affordable housing and improved commodity housing to address housing issues for new citizens, youth, and migrant workers [5] Market Trends - In 2025, land sales revenue in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with Beijing's land sales amounting to approximately 142.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 8% from the previous year [6] - Four major real estate companies, including Poly Developments and China Overseas, are expected to achieve sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Company News - Vanke plans to hold a meeting to discuss the extension of a domestic bond repayment, proposing to delay the principal repayment date by one year [9] - Country Garden has set December 30, 2025, as the effective date for its debt restructuring plan, which has been approved by the Hong Kong High Court [10] - CIFI Holdings announced the successful completion of its overseas debt restructuring, reducing its debt by approximately 38 billion yuan [11] - Longfor Group reported significant progress in its domestic debt restructuring, with over 62% of its remaining bonds being addressed through various options [12]

更多政策解读、城市月报、房企研究报告...... | 中指云 就在 \ 中指 · 政策要闻】中央财办释放积极信 号，明确稳楼市三项措施（12.15- 12. 21) 政策要闻丨中央财办释放积极信号，明确"稳楼市"措施（12.15-12.21 ） 摘要:住建部部长倪虹刊文,明确如何推动房地产高质量发展;中央财办发声,释放积极 信号,明确稳定房地产市场措施。深圳首张房票落地;北京清理违规房地产信息1.7万余 条;深圳、南通针对人才落地住房支持政策;江西、安徽等地发布"十五五"规划建议。 1. 中央:中央财办释放积极信号,明确"稳楼市"措施 要闻一:住建部部长倪虹刊文,明确如何推动房地产高质量发展 12月16日,人民日报发表住建部部长倪虹署名文章《推动房地产高质量发展》,文 章指出全面落实推动房地产高质量发展的六大重点任务,细化分解和部署全国"十五五" 规划建议中房地产工作,指导各地更好推进落地。 六项重点任务分别为：第一,优化保障性住房供给;第二,促进房地产市场持续健康 发展;第三,改革完善房地产开发、融资、销售制度;第四,实施房屋品质提升工程;第 五，实施物业服务质量提升行动；第六，建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制 ...

2025年年末，深圳楼市发布最新数据。深房中协的数据显示，今年第52周（12月22日~12月28日），全 市新房交易同比上升，二手房交易高位小幅下滑。截至12月28日，12月已累计录得5959套，整月超6000 套已成定局。 据深圳市房地产信息平台数据，2025年第52周全市新房（预售+现售）成交1474套，环比增长57.0%。 其中住宅类成交622套，环比增长11.5%。 数据来源：深圳市房地产中介协会 具体来看，光明和凤凰片区位于第一象限，其交易活跃度与价格均高于光明区均值，一定程度上体现出 较强的抗风险能力。在成交房源中，光明片区均价最高，公明片区均价最低。具体分布如下图所示： 备注：1.上图中心点坐标为（第52周光明区二手住宅片区录得量均值，第52周光明区片区二手住宅录得 均价）； 2.图上片区所在位置为与中心点偏离程度的大小。 11月29日，深圳"十五五"规划建议全文公布，其中15大项，76小项内容，涵括深圳发展的方方面面。其 中，房地产方面，提到推动房地产高质量发展。 （一）推动房地产投资向保障房和改善性商品房两侧发力，落实商品房开发、融资、销售等基础制度， 加快构建房地产发展新模式。 经深房中协 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has seen a narrowing month-on-month increase but an expanding year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has turned positive month-on-month with a narrowing year-on-year decline [5][14] - The inventory of new homes has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening both month-on-month and year-on-year [5][14] - The land market has experienced a decrease in transaction volume and a rise in prices, with both volume and price declining year-on-year [5][54] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of December 20-26, 2025, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 2.74 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 39.2% [15][20] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,491 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [32][33] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities was 19.8, 13.2, and 70.3 months respectively, with year-on-year increases across all tiers [25][35] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 5,116.1 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [54][58] - The total transaction price for land was 129.13 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 10.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [55][58] - The average floor price for land was 2,524.1 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 13.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% [56][58] 3. Policy Overview - The central government emphasized the importance of the real estate sector in the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating continued potential for growth and the need for policy adjustments to stabilize the market [90][91] - Local policies in Beijing have been adjusted to ease purchasing conditions for non-local households and support multi-child families, reflecting a trend towards more flexible housing policies [91][92] 4. Market Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 1.9%, with a relative return of -0.04% compared to the CSI 300 index, indicating a slight improvement week-on-week [94][95] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the real estate sector was 24.68X, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.9X [98]