| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,600.00 | +520.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,861.00 | +88.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 199,582.00 | +7190.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -27,472.00 | -5300.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 155,025.00 | -2900.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 110,603.00 | +1196.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 6,625.00 | -2850.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 43,816.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,610.00 | +375.00↑ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. There are liquidity easing expectations in the macro - market, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues has significantly eased. Fundamentally, overseas ore supply pressure persists, domestic smelter maintenance impacts deepen, and most inventories are at relatively low levels except in the US. The demand side has strong resilience. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive and investors need to be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. With the market gradually reaching a consensus on tightening supply, the psychological upper limit of the downstream for copper prices is gradually rising. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive due to the Fed's hawkish remarks and the rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Investors should be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In October, copper prices were generally strong. Affected by overseas mine operation disruptions, copper prices gapped up after the National Day holiday. Then, due to the US provoking a "trade war" against China, copper prices slightly corrected. With the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, copper prices rose again and broke through the highest point in May 2024 [8][9] 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a further rate cut in December is "far from certain". The US government's "shutdown" in October affected the release of economic data. The CPI data in September showed that overall inflation was controllable, which further consolidated the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in October [11][14] - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: In October, the US provoked a "trade war" against China again, causing copper prices to fall. However, through Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a consensus on multiple issues, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues significantly eased, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of the two countries [16] - **Domestic Economic and Policy Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was reviewed and approved, which will bring policy benefits to the terminal application fields. The copper industry should prevent "involution - style" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. The US has adjusted its copper resource strategy, which may change the global copper supply flow [18][22][23] 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side**: In September, China's copper ore concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, with a sharp drop in shipments from Chile. Overseas mine operation disturbances increased, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained in the negative range. Except for the significant accumulation of copper inventories in the US, LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased or remained stable. In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and the low processing fee of copper concentrates [24][28][31][35] - **Demand Side**: In September, China's scrap copper imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The expected decline in the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry in October was due to the high copper price. As of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area. The automobile market maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle market performed well. The home appliance market entered a seasonal off - season [39][43][47][50][56][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract declined slightly, with reduced positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply of copper concentrate has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. In terms of supply, due to many maintenance operations and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. Additionally, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of domestic refined copper supply. On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment, causing downstream buyers to be cautious and adopt a wait - and - see purchasing strategy. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.018 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 87,960 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,031.50 dollars/ton, down 152 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 281,460 lots, down 8,749 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 31,495 lots, down 2,416 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,350 tons, up 775 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 104,792 tons, down 5,448 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,675 tons, up 3,500 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 37,437 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 87,765 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot price is 87,770 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 35.50 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 19.66 dollars/ton, down 0.12 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5869 million tons, down 172,000 tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.70 dollars/kiloton, down 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 78,020 yuan/metal ton, down 420 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,720 yuan/metal ton, down 420 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,440 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 437.8 billion yuan, up 58.224 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.68%, up 0.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.49%, up 0.21 percentage points. The at - the - money implied volatility (IV) of the current month is 23.91%, up 0.0393 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is up 0.018 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A special fund for the development of strategic emerging industries of central state - owned enterprises has been launched, with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, aerospace, high - end equipment, and quantum technology, as well as future industries. In September, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, up 3.1% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year, with the inventory level below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction from December 1. There are significant differences within the Federal Reserve on the subsequent interest - rate path. Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and issues of common concern [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market shows a situation of both supply and demand being weak, with industrial inventory accumulating. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish trend, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 88,370 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,036 dollars/ton, up 73.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 293,381 lots, up 17,709 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 23,535 lots, up 1,433 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,350 tons, down 575 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 104,792 tons, down 5,448 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 35,392 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 88,215 yuan/ton, up 1,795 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 88,275 yuan/ton, up 1,835 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 34.5 dollars/ton, down 4.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 155 yuan/ton, up 1,145 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 25.97 dollars/ton, down 14.42 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.7 dollars/kiloton, down 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 78,540 yuan/metal ton, up 1,830 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 79,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,830 yuan. The south processing fee of blister copper is 900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the north processing fee is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai is 59,240 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the price of scrap copper (2 copper, 94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378 billion yuan, up 582.24 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.59%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.46%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 21.18%, up 0.0387%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.18, down 0.0923 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues. The 18th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee heard a report on financial work, proposing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes solving "three rural" issues and is expected to bring new market space [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Report Summary - Market risk preference has increased due to the start of China-US economic and trade consultations. The market is concerned about the results of these consultations [9][11]. - The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [13]. - The meeting on the operation of key enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry in the third quarter emphasized preventing "involutionary" vicious competition and ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain [15]. 02 Multi-Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: - Social inventory has decreased slightly, and domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has recovered [7]. - China's September scrap copper imports increased, with a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase, mainly due to policy adjustments and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season [27][28]. - In September, the output of copper strips ended a four - month decline, and the output of refined copper rods increased slightly [30][33]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [36]. - The new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with September production and sales increasing by 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [41][42]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the domestic copper spot premium has turned into a discount while the foreign premium - discount range has narrowed [44][47]. - **Bearish Factors**: - In September, China's copper ore imports decreased, with a 6.24% month - on - month decline. The supply from Chile dropped by over 30%. Global copper mine supply shows rigidity and vulnerability [17][19]. - The TC of copper concentrates remains at a low level, with the weekly index at - 40.7 dollars/dry ton as of October 17, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [20][21]. - In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to peak smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and a decrease in the incentive to increase production [23][24]. - The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area from January to September [38][39]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data**: - China's September copper ore imports were 2.5869 million tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. The supply from Chile dropped to 649,400 tons [19]. - As of October 17, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/dry ton, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [21]. - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and a 14.48% year - on - year increase. In October, production continued to decline [24]. - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase [28]. - **Demand - side Data**: - In September, the output of copper strips was 196,200 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase but an 8.7% year - on - year decrease [31]. - In September, the output of refined copper rods was 849,300 tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase, while the output of recycled copper rods was 170,800 tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [34]. - From January to September, real estate development enterprise housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year [39]. - In September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [42]. - **Inventory Data**: - LME copper inventory was 11,240 tons last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 0.5% to 110,240 tons in the week of October 17, and COMEX copper inventory was 347,498 tons. As of October 23, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, down 5,700 tons from the 20th [45]. 04后市研判 - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,657 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 233,361 lots, up 2,135 lots. The LME copper inventory is 137,150 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 84,955 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,055 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 465 yuan/ton, down 795 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 75,320 yuan/metal ton, down 770 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,020 yuan/metal ton, down 770 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.74%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.94%, down 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 17.58%, down 0.0187%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0062 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Reuters survey: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. Trump plans to visit China early next year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has in - depth exchanges on issues such as export controls and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Ore Imports**: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - **Copper Products Output**: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - **Copper Consumption**: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - **Spot Premium**: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Home Appliance Industry**: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen and then pulled back, with increased open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper price cost support logic remains due to the tight supply of copper concentrate. The domestic copper production is expected to increase slightly, while the downstream copper product start - up is expected to improve significantly. The social inventory may gradually decrease, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 83,110 yuan/ton, up 740 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,383 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 213,859 lots, up 67 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 8,035 lots, up 7085 lots. The LME copper inventory is 143,900 tons, down 500 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 98,779 tons, down 7035 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 26,823 tons, down 2856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 83,240 yuan/ton, up 1030 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 83,100 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.22 dollars/ton, up 9.69 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 73,340 yuan/metal ton, up 760 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 74,040 yuan/metal ton, up 760 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,540 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 69,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,796 billion yuan, up 481.03 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6729.42 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 14.54%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.40%, up 0.16%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 21.33%, down 0.0031%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, down 0.0486 [2] Industry News - New York Fed President Williams supported rate cuts due to labor market weakness; St. Louis Fed President Musalem is open to future rate cuts but cautious; Cleveland Fed President Harker advocates maintaining a tight monetary policy. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee is studying the 15th Five - Year Plan. The China Household Electrical Appliances Association opposes unfair competition in the industry [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing trading volume and an increasing open interest; the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia under Freeport encountered a mudslide accident and suspended operations, which will have a significant impact on global copper production in Q4 2025 and in the future, and global copper ore supply may become tighter. On the supply side, the tight supply of raw materials and the recent decline in copper prices due to the Fed's interest - rate cut will limit smelters' profit margins, and domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. On the demand side, the slight decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and combined with the pre - holiday inventory demand, domestic demand has increased, and social inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.19, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0833, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,710 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,750 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,367.50 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 31 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 238,523 lots, a daily increase of 66,079 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a daily decrease of 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, a weekly increase of 11,760 tons. The LME copper canceled warrants were 11,775 tons, a daily decrease of 100 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 82,505 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,460 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 82,445 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,375 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.50 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 4.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was - 205 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 290 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.37 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 41.74 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, a monthly increase of 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 40.80 US dollars/thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.50 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,340 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,040 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the processing fee for blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, a monthly increase of 310,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,440 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 70 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, a monthly increase of 526,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a monthly decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.32%, a daily increase of 6.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.22%, a daily increase of 3.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 13.13%, a daily increase of 0.0011 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, a daily decrease of 0.0833 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of interest - rate cuts, expressing concerns about inflation and not supporting rate cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth and the labor market had slowed, and inflation was lower than expected, so further rate cuts might be needed. On September 24, mining giant Freeport disclosed that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident on September 8, which caused casualties and damaged mining facilities. The mine has suspended operations. Preliminary assessment shows that this may lead to significant production delays in the near term (Q4 2025 and 2026), and operations may return to pre - incident levels in 2027. Freeport's comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower than the July 2025 estimate. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and stated that China, as a responsible developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. Li Qiang met with European Commission President von der Leyen in New York, hoping that the EU would fulfill its commitment to keep trade and investment markets open, adhere to fair competition and WTO rules, and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper ore supply remains tight with strong quotes, supporting the copper price. The supply of refined copper in China is expected to decrease due to raw - material supply tightness and reduced smelter profits. The demand has increased slightly due to the slight decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stockpiling needs, leading to a small reduction in social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, paying attention to the trading rhythm and risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,920 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,980.50 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars. The spread between the main contracts in different months is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 173,294 hands, down 3,668 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 13,444 hands, up 3,842 hands. The LME copper inventory is 145,375 tons, down 2,275 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,875 tons, down 600 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 27,727 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,010 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,035 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 59.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 72.44 dollars/ton, down 7.54 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.5 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,520 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,220 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,490 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.94%, up 0.0177. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.33, up 0.0002 [2] 7. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further cuts and expects only one cut this year; Musalem thinks the room for further cuts is limited; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2%. Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that by the end of June, the number of financing platforms decreased by over 60% and the financial debt scale decreased by over 50% compared with March 2023, and China's current monetary policy is supportive. Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing promoting stable and healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations. China's 1 - year LPR in September is 3% and the over - 5 - year variety is 3.5%, both unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in Q4 and drive down the LPR [2]