1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with a decrease in positions and a premium in the spot market, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain - hunting inventory replenishment after the significant copper price correction, but the actual transaction is still cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's price - holding sentiment. The domestic copper inventory shows seasonal accumulation. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper are in a stage of slightly converging supply and cautious demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 100,980.00 yuan/ton, down 4,180.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,999.50 US dollars/ton, down 45.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 182,336.00 lots, down 10,572.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 58,962.00 lots, down 7,780.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125.00 tons, up 1,450.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 233,004.00 tons, up 7,067.00 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants are 37,075.00 tons, down 800.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 159,772.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,140.00 yuan/ton, down 3,265.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,145.00 yuan/ton, down 3,750.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 36.50 US dollars/ton, up 1.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 160.00 yuan/ton, up 915.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 81.84 US dollars/ton, down 12.44 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, up 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 95,230.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 95,930.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 49.84 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.05 US dollars. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 2,200.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan; in the north, it is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, up 10,000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,490.00 yuan/ton, up 1,300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 84,850.00 yuan/ton, up 2,750.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 45.07%, up 1.80%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.56%, up 1.21%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 32.46%, down 0.0310; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio is 1.49, up 0.0049 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected. The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8 but was better than expected. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue. The preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association showed that the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said to support the housing needs of young people and increase the area of affordable housing [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The SHFE copper main contract fluctuates with a bullish bias, the open interest increases, the spot is at a discount, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain hunting after the significant decline in copper prices, but the actual trading remains cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's reluctance to sell. Domestic copper inventories show seasonal accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly lower implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a slightly shrinking red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE copper futures main contract is 105,160 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,457 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the SHFE copper main contract is 192,908 lots, up 1021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of SHFE copper is - 51,182 lots, up 3611 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125 tons, up 1450 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 233,004 tons, up 7067 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 37,075 tons, down 800 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipts are 159,772 tons, down 2856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 104,405 yuan/ton, up 3085 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 104,895 yuan/ton, up 3660 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 755 yuan/ton, up 2425 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 69.40 dollars/ton, down 10.23 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.80 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 49.84 dollars/kiloton, down 0.05 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,590 yuan/metal ton, up 230 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,290 yuan/metal ton, up 230 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,190 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8278.814 billion yuan, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE copper is 43.27%, down 0.47%; the 40 - day historical volatility of SHFE copper is 35.35%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 35.56%, down 0.0089; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.0512 [2] Industry News - Thirty provinces in China have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many major economic provinces setting the target above 5%. Shanghai aims for about 5% GDP growth in 2026 and will accelerate major industrial projects in areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence. In January, the sales volume of 6 types of household appliances and 4 types of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, with sales of nearly 59 billion yuan. The offline sales of home appliance trade - ins and new digital and smart product purchases accounted for nearly 80%, with a year - on - year increase of about 20%. Fed's Barkin said that rate - cut measures support the job market and the inflation - fighting task still has the last step. Fed's Mille said that rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year. The central government issued the No. 1 central document, aiming to expand rural consumption, support the development of new consumption formats in rural areas, and promote the construction and renewal of rural circulation infrastructure [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has a slight decline, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The port inventory has slightly rebounded with the arrival of imports, but it is still at a relatively low level historically. On the supply side, although the raw material supply is tight, domestic copper production remains at a relatively high level due to seasonal factors, with a relatively sufficient supply. On the demand side, some downstream buyers adopt a strategy of purchasing for rigid needs and stocking up at low prices, but the high copper price and the traditional off - season limit the demand, resulting in average trading sentiment in the spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.71, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1442, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has a slight increase. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 102,600 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 13,073 dollars/ton, down 126 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 229,757 lots, up 778 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 69,801 lots, down 8,825 lots. The LME copper inventory is 170,525 tons, down 1,175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 44,725 tons, down 1,550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 144,908 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,370 yuan/ton, down 1,065 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 22 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,230 yuan/ton, down 1,785 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 71.07 dollars/ton, down 5.01 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,710 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 93,410 yuan/metal ton, up 1,460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,590 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,950 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8278.814 billion yuan, up 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.85%, down 1.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.38%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 27.02%, up 0.0116; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.71, up 0.1442 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership reached 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle ownership; the pure - electric vehicle ownership was 30.22 million, accounting for 68.74% of the new energy vehicle ownership. In 2025, the newly registered new energy vehicles were 12.93 million, accounting for 49.38% of the newly registered vehicles, an increase of 1.68 million or 14.93% compared with 2024. Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon, including measures to expand inbound consumption, the launch of a national digital trade demonstration zone, optimization of the old - for - new program for consumer goods, promotion of consumption of large - ticket durable goods such as cars and home appliances, a pilot reform of car circulation consumption, and the upcoming launch of a national - level overseas comprehensive service platform. The exchange has taken measures to cool down the commodity futures market. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits and margin ratios for some futures contracts. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has also issued a risk reminder letter. The People's Bank of China has emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies. The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the cost - support for copper prices from the tight ore supply remains. On the supply side, limited by the tight raw material supply, the output at the end of 2025 only increased slightly, and the output at the beginning of 2026 is also generally stable, with a relatively sufficient domestic supply. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Coupled with the previous high - level operation of copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, mainly for rigid demand purchases. Recently, as copper prices have declined from high levels, the downstream adopts a strategy of buying on dips. Therefore, with relatively cautious demand, the off - season effect leads to continuous inventory accumulation of refined copper in the social inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and cautious demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the social inventory. In terms of options, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0079, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly expanding. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 100,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 580.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,753.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 56.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 222,467.00 lots, a decrease of 1320.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 54,818.00 lots, a decrease of 2916.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 159,400.00 tons, an increase of 3100.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 213,515.00 tons, an increase of 32,972.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 46,825.00 tons, a decrease of 975.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 143,173.00 tons, a decrease of 2856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 100,070.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 100,295.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 22.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 630.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 590.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 29.11 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 130.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 46.53 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,590.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,290.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, an increase of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, an increase of 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.06%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.38%, an increase of 0.12%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 22.88%, a decrease of 0.0050; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.54, a decrease of 0.0079 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until the end of Fed Chairman Powell's term in May. This view has changed significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, two aspects of work will be focused on to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry: orderly promoting the construction of "good houses" and accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model and building basic systems for real estate development, financing, and sales. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to address the problem of abnormally low prices in government procurement, which will take effect on February 1, 2026. As of the end of December 2025, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 2.0092 billion, exceeding 2 billion. China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network, meeting the charging needs of over 40 million new energy vehicles. In 2026, the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in industries such as industry, energy and power, education, medical care, grain and oil processing, customs inspection, old residential elevators, energy conservation and environmental protection, and recycling, driving total investment of over 460 billion yuan. At the same time, funds will be directly allocated to local governments to support the scrapping and renewal of old commercial trucks, the renewal of new energy city buses, and the scrapping and renewal of old agricultural machinery [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to decline, and the cost support of tight ore for copper prices remains. The supply is relatively sufficient, while the demand is cautious due to the off - season and high copper prices before. The refined copper social inventory is accumulating seasonally. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,970 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 218,898 lots, up 1,466 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 51,902 lots, up 44 lots. The LME copper inventory is 147,425 tons, up 3,850 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 48,550 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 148,193 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,725 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,615 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 36 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 25.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is - 505 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 spread is 67.55 dollars/ton, up 6.03 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.53 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 90,910 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan; in Yunnan is 91,610 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,290 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment completion is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment completion is 82,788 billion yuan, up 419.71 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,810 million pieces, up 418 million pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.14%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.24%, down 0.11%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 24.72%, down 0.0582%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.55, down 0.0687 [2] 7. Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structure optimization and upgrading. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September. The consumer goods trade - in policy promoted high - quality durable consumer goods into residents' lives. At the end of 2025, the number of household cars per 100 households reached 52.9, an increase of 1.7 compared with the end of the previous year. The GDP in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase over the previous year. The per - capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% over the previous year. In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The investment growth in information technology driven by AI is an important driving force for the global economy. Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals is running at a low level, and the domestic copper ore supply is still tight, with relatively strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, as copper prices and the prices of smelting by - products such as sulfuric acid are all at high levels, smelters are still relatively active in production. It is reported that the production schedule in January is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. On the demand side, the downstream procurement sentiment is still cautious due to high copper prices, and the growth of new downstream orders is limited due to the off - season, so the trading volume in the spot market is still light, and industrial inventories are accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply increase and cautious demand, with social inventories accumulating. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.55, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0087, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 102,290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,510.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 13,133.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract was 172,960.00 lots, a decrease of 9,731.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 75,925.00 lots, a decrease of 8,758.00 lots. The LME copper inventory was 137,225.00 tons, a decrease of 1,750.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 180,543.00 tons, an increase of 35,201.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 22,075.00 tons, a decrease of 1,550.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 122,127.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 725.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 102,315.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 890.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 38.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.00 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 220.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 785.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 64.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.37 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 45.41 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.43 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 92,580.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 93,280.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 900.00 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper was 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee for blister copper was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000.00 tons, a decrease of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 69,490.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 84,650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 78,590.90 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.20 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 215,000.00 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 27.16%, an increase of 0.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.25%, an increase of 0.32%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 33.85%, an increase of 0.0413%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.55, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, actions to rejuvenate traditional industries, "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, and actions to develop and expand emerging industries and create new driving forces will be implemented. Focus on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G to strengthen technological research, product development, enterprise cultivation, and ecological construction. The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell responded that this move is unprecedented and should be viewed in the context of the continuous threats from the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve, aiming to further pressure him on the issue of interest rate cuts. The Ministry of Commerce reported on the progress of consultations on the China - EU electric vehicle case. The EU will issue a "Guidance Document on Submitting Price Commitment Applications" and confirm that it will adhere to the principle of non - discrimination, apply the same legal standards to each price commitment application in accordance with relevant WTO rules, and conduct evaluations in an objective and fair manner. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued a statement saying that it will encourage and support the involved enterprises to make full use of the consultation results and strive for their export rights to the EU by applying for price commitments. The new collective bargaining at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to continued production disruptions caused by strikes. The union said in a statement that the labor department has notified them that the company will no longer have union emergency personnel to maintain facility operations because the company "failed to meet legal requirements and submitted documents late" [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index decreased slightly, and the expectation of tight ore supply continued, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the continuous tight raw material supply and the approaching holiday, copper smelting capacity may gradually shrink, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply will gradually slow down. On the demand side, after the copper price rebounded from its high, the repair strength was strong and remained at a high level, which had a certain inhibitory effect on downstream purchases. Downstream buyers mainly replenished their stocks according to demand, and the trading sentiment in the spot market became increasingly cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, and social inventories have accumulated. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.42, a month - on - month increase of 0.0986, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green bars expanded. The suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,190 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,805 dollars/ton, a decrease of 94.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 204,090 lots, a decrease of 11,779 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 60,574 lots, a decrease of 16,936 lots. LME copper inventories were 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of cathode copper were 145,342 tons, an increase of 33,639 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 108,685 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,325 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 102,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 42.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 865 yuan/ton, an increase of 865 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 14.98 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 44.98 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.08 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 93,890 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 94,590 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Social inventories of copper were 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 70,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 85,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 560.39 billion yuan, an increase of 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,859.09 billion yuan, an increase of 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, an increase of 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 25.96%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 21.40%, an increase of 1.00 percentage point. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 33.04%, a decrease of 0.0060 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, an increase of 0.0986 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level in 2025, indicating continuous active demand for physical - economy logistics services. In December 2025, the retail sales of China's passenger car market were 2.296 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market were 1.387 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4%. The US "small non - farm" in December last year showed a moderate recovery. ADP data showed that the number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In addition, the number of job openings in the US JOLTS in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024. The director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, Zhang Yuzhuo, visited Sichuan to conduct research in the R & D and production front - lines of relevant central enterprises, emphasizing the need to plan and implement a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance; coordinate the consolidation and improvement of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy, vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and future industries, and open up a "second growth curve". The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and it has been running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side has a tight copper concentrate supply, and the cost - support logic for copper prices is solid. Supply may gradually shrink due to tight raw materials and approaching holidays, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply is slowing. Demand is affected by high copper prices, and downstream buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, with an increase in social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a bullish signal. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with light positions, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract is 101,350 yuan/ton, up 3110 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,833 dollars/ton, up 363.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 216,315 lots, up 8069 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3287 lots. The LME copper inventory is 145,325 tons, down 2100 tons. The SHFE cathode copper inventory is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The SHFE cathode copper warrant is 90,282 tons, down 2856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,575 yuan/ton, up 1755 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1325 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 775 yuan/ton, down 1355 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 38.6 dollars/ton, up 8.21 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 89,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1610 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 90,320 yuan/metal ton, up 1610 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The monthly output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,970 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,050 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 7859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 21.82%, up 1.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.69%, up 1.40 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 27.33%, down 0.0101 percentage points. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, up 0.0406 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month, all rising to the expansion range. In 2025, the sales of trade - in related goods exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 3.6 billion people. The eurozone's December 2025 manufacturing PMI was 48.8, lower than expected. Fed's Paulson said that if inflation cools, the Fed may further cut interest rates but will not take immediate additional measures. In December 2025, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 420,398, down 18.2% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative sales of 4.602436 million, up 7.73% year - on - year, and overseas sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, up 145%. Geely's December 2025 sales were 236,817, up 13% year - on - year, and the annual sales were 3.024567 million, up 39% year - on - year. Many new - energy vehicle brands had record - high December sales, and Leapmotor ranked first with nearly 600,000 annual sales [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and resilient demand, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and copper prices are strongly influenced by macro - factors. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low positions with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 98,090 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,437 dollars/ton, up 215 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 219,725 hands, down 15,782 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 37,503 hands, up 3,144 hands. LME copper inventory is 154,575 tons, down 2,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 111,703 tons, up 15,898 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 71,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 97,620 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 97,715 yuan/ton, down 3,510 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 49 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 470 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 31.35 dollars/ton, up 11.66 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.9 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.25 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,490 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 92,190 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the north, it is 1,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,870 yuan/ton, up 2,650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,350 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 56.04 billion yuan, up 7.7966 billion yuan. The cumulative investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.32%, down 0.64 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 39.69%, up 0.0953 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, down 0.0664 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, and enhancing platform economy regulation. The National Energy Administration has called for promoting the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities and accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association believes that the auto market in 2026 will have a positive start in January but face some pressure in February. US President Trump has commented on the Fed chairman and is considering legal action against him [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,735 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 231,253 lots, up 7,279 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are - 33,302 lots, down 996 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,925 tons, up 325 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 89,389 tons, up 484 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipt is 44,650 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 92,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the Yangtze River non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 92,395 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 360 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.8 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.08 dollars/kiloton, down 0.22 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 82,500 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 83,200 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment completed is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 78,590.9 billion yuan, up 5,028.2 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 18.1%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.18%, down 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 19.27%, up 0.0112. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0181 [2] Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" starts with a moderately loose monetary policy aiming for economic growth and price recovery, with expected reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts next year. The Fed official indicates a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space. In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]