铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | A | 1 | P | R | T | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/9/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 83,110.00 | +740.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,383.00 | -31.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 213,859.00 | +67.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -8,035.00 | +7085.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 143,900.00 | -500.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 98,779.00 | -7035.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 9,875.00 | -450.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 26,823.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 83,240.00 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/9/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,710.00 | +2750.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,367.50 | +31.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 20.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 238,523.00 | +66079.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -16,618.00 | -3174.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 144,975.00 | -400.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 105,814.00 | +11760.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 11,775.00 | -100.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 27,419.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 82, ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper ore supply remains tight with strong quotes, supporting the copper price. The supply of refined copper in China is expected to decrease due to raw - material supply tightness and reduced smelter profits. The demand has increased slightly due to the slight decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stockpiling needs, leading to a small reduction in social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, paying attention to the trading rhythm and risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,920 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,980.50 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars. The spread between the main contracts in different months is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 173,294 hands, down 3,668 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 13,444 hands, up 3,842 hands. The LME copper inventory is 145,375 tons, down 2,275 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,875 tons, down 600 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 27,727 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,010 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,035 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 59.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 72.44 dollars/ton, down 7.54 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.5 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,520 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,220 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,490 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.94%, up 0.0177. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.33, up 0.0002 [2] 7. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further cuts and expects only one cut this year; Musalem thinks the room for further cuts is limited; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2%. Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that by the end of June, the number of financing platforms decreased by over 60% and the financial debt scale decreased by over 50% compared with March 2023, and China's current monetary policy is supportive. Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing promoting stable and healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations. China's 1 - year LPR in September is 3% and the over - 5 - year variety is 3.5%, both unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in Q4 and drive down the LPR [2]

沪铜产业日报 2025/9/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 80,160.00 | +250.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,984.50 | -4.50↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | +40.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 176,962.00 | +60410.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -17,286.00 | -3082.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 147,650.00 | -1225.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 105,814.00 | +11760.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 14,400.00 | +950.00↑ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 29,893.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 80 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by the cost of the concentrate due to the negative TC index of copper ore and the firm offer of concentrate. Supply is constrained by the tight supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate, and macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut keep the copper price in a high - level range. However, the strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, resulting in a light trading volume in the spot market. The peak season has not yet boosted demand, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.38, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0514, indicating a bullish sentiment and a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows both lines below the 0 - axis with an expanding green bar. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,620 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,966.50 dollars/ton, down 29.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 70 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 127,860 lots, down 19,604 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,293 lots, down 4,846 lots. LME copper inventory was 150,950 tons, down 1,675 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,054 tons, up 12,203 tons. The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,291 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,065 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 56 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.50 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 370 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 71.13 dollars/ton, down 11.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 41.30 dollars/kiloton, down 0.45 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 70,910 yuan/metal ton, down 620 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 71,610 yuan/metal ton, down 620 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,790 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.53%, up 1.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.30%, up 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 14.97%, up 0.0090 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.38, up 0.0514 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October was over 90%. China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and introduce a series of policy documents. During the consumption month, more than 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be carried out, and more than 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract had a slight pullback, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis [2]. - At the mining end of the fundamentals, the spot index of copper concentrate TC is in the negative range, and the concentrate quotation remains firm, providing cost support for copper prices [2]. - In terms of supply, the supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is relatively tight, which restricts the smelting capacity to some extent. Coupled with macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are operating in a high - level range [2]. - On the demand side, the strong copper prices suppress the downstream purchasing sentiment, and the trading volume in the spot market is relatively light. At the terminal, the boost to demand in the peak season has not yet appeared, and the consumption recovery is relatively slow [2]. - In the options market, the purchase - to - sell ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.33, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0385. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased [2]. - Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,006 dollars/ton, a decrease of 120.5 dollars [2]. - The inter - month spread of the main contract was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 147,464 lots, a decrease of 17,752 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 11,447 lots, an increase of 1 lot; the LME copper inventory was 150,950 tons, a decrease of 1,675 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE was 94,054 tons, an increase of 12,203 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 15,800 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons [2]. - The SHFE warrants of cathode copper were 33,291 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 81,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 81,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 56 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.5 dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 560 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 59.26 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 0.2105 million tons; the copper smelter's roughing fee (TC) was - 41.3 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 71,530 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 250 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 72,230 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 0.031 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,650 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 0.0526 million tons; the cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 331.497 billion yuan, an increase of 40.431 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.37%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.79%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 14.07%, an increase of 0.0015; the purchase - to - sell ratio of at - the - money options was 1.33, a decrease of 0.0385 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", supporting cross - border cooperation between high - quality consumption resources and well - known IPs, etc. [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth [2]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng pointed out in an article that the international dominant currency has the attribute of a global public good, and there are inherent instability problems when borne by a single sovereign currency. The international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence, competition, and checks and balances among a few sovereign currencies [2]. - As of the end of August, the passenger vehicle industry inventory in China was 3.16 million units, a decrease of 0.13 million units from the previous month. From May to August, car companies more rationally controlled production, reducing the inventory pressure on dealers [2].

沪铜产业日报 2025/9/16 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 80,880.00 | -60.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,119.50 | -67.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -20.00 | -50.00↓ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has rebounded but remains in the negative range, and the firmness of copper mines still supports copper prices. [2] - On the supply side, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the domestic refined copper supply may increase slightly. [2] - On the demand side, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption remains weak. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have some pre - stocking demand, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. [2] - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventories remain in the medium - low range. [2] - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0012. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,789.50 dollars/ton, down 47.50 dollars. [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 174,997 lots, down 491 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 12,244 lots, down 1,967 lots; the LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 975 tons. [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons (weekly), down 4,663 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,250 tons, up 1,500 tons. [2] - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 21,287 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,585 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of the CU main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 84.82 dollars/ton, down 6.44 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons (monthly), up 21.05 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/kiloton (weekly), down 3.47 dollars. [2] - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,880 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,580 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan. [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton (weekly), down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons (monthly), down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons (monthly), down 4.51 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan (monthly), up 40.434 billion yuan. [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan (monthly), up 692.221 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.29%, down 0.00%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.23%, down 0.0127%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is down 0.0012. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held. It is necessary to place the development of new - quality productivity according to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, promote the in - depth integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and accelerate the process of industrial intelligent development. [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during the 15th special study of the State Council that it is necessary to actively expand the import of high - quality services, promote the high - quality development of the service industry through high - level opening - up, and promote the institutional opening of service trade. [2] - US President Trump said in a cabinet meeting that he may appoint Stephen Milan to serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long - term. Trump said that he will soon have a majority on the Federal Reserve. [2] - Trump said that he may visit China this year or as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two heads of state maintain close exchanges and communication. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, due to the release of copper mine supply, the spot index of copper concentrate TC has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The firmness of copper mines still supports the copper price. In terms of supply, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly. In terms of demand, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption is still relatively flat. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have a certain demand for advance stocking, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and the industry inventory remains in the medium - low range. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.18, a month - on - month increase of 0.0267. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,809 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 111,351 lots, down 9551 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 1,913 lots, up 1702 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, unchanged. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons, down 4663 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,350 tons, up 600 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 24,148 tons, down 2856 tons. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,395 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,385 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 295 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 78.38 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/thousand tons, down 3.47 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,400 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.79%, up 1.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, up 0.58 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 10.89%, up 0.0091 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.18, up 0.0267. [2] 3.7行业消息 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has joined the dovish camp, opening the door for a Fed rate cut in September. The market has increased its bets on a US rate cut. Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, listening to a report on the implementation of the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy, and studying opinions on releasing the potential of sports consumption and further promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry. From January to July, the added value of the five major industries mainly involved in the machinery industry increased year - on - year. The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.3%; the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 3.8%; the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.9%; the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.9%; the instrument and meter manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%. The personal consumer loan discount policy will officially start on September 1st. This is the first time that the central government has implemented a discount policy in the field of personal consumer loans. The policy will precisely support the "part used for consumption" in consumer loans. Industry insiders expect that the discount policy will have a great impact on the industry, accelerating the expansion of institutions into various consumption scenarios and better controlling the flow of funds through direct cooperation with merchants. [2]