政策制定依赖数据
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联邦政府持续“停摆”,多项报告推迟发布,美经济数据“断供”引多方不安
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 22:57
Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, severely impairing the ability to release key economic reports such as inflation and employment data, leading to a state of "data blindness" for both domestic and international markets [1][3][5] - The shutdown has resulted in the postponement of critical economic indicators, including the September employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is essential for monetary policy decisions [3][4][6] Economic Data Impact - Federal agencies responsible for economic indicators have halted nearly all data collection and publication, causing significant delays in the release of important reports that are viewed as market barometers [3][5] - The delay in the CPI report, now scheduled for October 24, raises concerns about its accuracy, as it may be based on incomplete data due to the ongoing shutdown [3][4] Global Repercussions - The lack of U.S. economic data is affecting global policymakers, complicating their decision-making processes and increasing the risk of errors in judgment [5][6] - Officials from various countries, including Japan, have expressed concerns about the implications of U.S. data unavailability on their own economic policies [5][6] Alternative Data Sources - Despite the shutdown, the Federal Reserve continues to gather economic information through its networks, and private data service providers are offering alternative data, albeit with limitations [7] - Experts warn that while alternative data sources exist, they cannot fully replace the comprehensive and official datasets typically provided by U.S. agencies [7] Trust and Governance Concerns - The ongoing shutdown and the resulting data disruption are raising questions about the governance and reliability of the U.S. economic system, which could impact foreign exchange reserves and monetary decisions globally [7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that political interference in data quality and timeliness could further complicate policy-making for central banks and policymakers worldwide [7]