Group 1 - Senator Warren urges the government to release the September employment report despite the government shutdown, emphasizing its importance for the Federal Reserve's decision-making on interest rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of September labor data, and the employment report is likely ready for release if the government reopens [1][2] - The government shutdown is causing a disruption in the release of key economic data, leading to a reliance on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicates a significant decline in private sector employment [2][3] Group 2 - The monthly employment report is considered one of the most critical economic data points in the U.S., especially amid concerns over a weakening job market and rising unemployment [3] - The White House attributes the government shutdown to the Democrats, claiming it undermines the economy and disrupts timely public data essential for decision-making by businesses and policymakers [3]

美国联邦政府资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜耗尽，政府再次陷入停摆危机。美国国会两党领导人29日 在会见特朗普后纷纷对媒体表示，双方存在巨大分歧，谈判进展甚微。 当地时间9月26日，美国劳工部发布应急计划称，正在寻求确保劳工部各机构能够在出现停摆时有序暂 停计划和运营，同时继续开展在停摆期间获准继续进行的有限活动。美国劳工部称，若政府陷入停摆， 劳工部将不会发布预计本周公布的关键就业报告和其他数据，这些报告将提供有关经济走向的重要线 索，并在美联储政策制定者10月份下次会议之前提供信息。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国联邦政府停摆危机迫在眉睫，或将导致政策制定者、企业领袖和投资者无法获 取评估美国经济状况所需的关键数据。 当前，外界对特朗普各项政策给美国经济带来的影响仍存疑虑，在此背景下，联邦政府发布的就业、通 胀及消费数据显得尤为重要。数据的任何延迟都可能干扰关键政策决策——例如，美联储下月召开会议 时，是否应再次降息的判断便会受此影响。 安永帕特农首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示："没人愿意在本就迷雾重重的环境中'盲目航行'。" 若政府在9月30日后停摆，首当其冲受影响的重要数据将是原定于10月3日发布的劳工统计局就业报告。 该机构发布的核心通胀数据——消费者价格指数(CPI)将是下一个可能延期的关键指标，而人口普查局 计划发布的零售销售数据及新住宅建设数据，同样面临延迟风险。 | Indicator | Scheduled date | | --- | --- | | Initial jobless claims | Oct. 2, 9, 16 | | Monthly jobs report | Oct. 3 | | Trade balance | Oct. 7 | | Consume ...

数据的陨落：当"黄金标准"沦为"政治玩具" 华盛顿的政治风暴正在侵蚀美国经济数据的公信力，而市场已经率先发出了警告。 8月1日，当劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗被解雇的消息传出，恐慌情绪瞬间蔓延华尔街。 标普500指数应声创下三个月来的最大单日跌幅，美股市值如同 雪崩般蒸发超过1万亿美元。投资者如惊弓之鸟，疯狂涌入避险资产：黄金价格直线飙升至每盎司3393美元的历史高位，比特币也在一周内暴涨14%。更令 人不安的是美债市场的异动，30年期国债收益率跳涨至4.92%，长期债券的"风险溢价"飙升0.65个百分点，这无疑是在警示，投资者对未来十年内美国通胀 失控的担忧已经达到了前所未有的程度。 从"黄金标准"到"猜谜游戏" 美国经济数据的公信力崩塌并非一朝一夕。 早在2025年7月CPI报告发布时，劳工统计局就公开承认，其中15%的价格样本依赖估算填补，而非实地采集。 尽管官方宣称"全国通胀率误差仅0.01%"，但分项数据的波动却异常剧烈： 纽约州暂停采价后，当地房租指数单月跳涨2.3%，远远超过历史均值。 经济数据的"政治清洗"？ 这场风暴的核心人物是特朗普。在劳工部公布令人失望的7月就业数据——新增岗位仅7.3 ...

Key Points - The financial market is set to experience a series of critical data releases and events this week, with a focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank unexpectedly maintained the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.85% in July, but market expectations lean towards a potential cut to 3.60% due to easing inflation and a declining employment report [3] - The U.S. July CPI data is anticipated to provide insights into inflation trends, especially after the unexpected underperformance of the non-farm payroll data, which has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release their monthly energy outlook reports, which will offer guidance on oil demand, supply, and price forecasts [8] - The U.K. is expected to release GDP data for Q2 and June, with previous data indicating economic contraction, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to consider further rate cuts [9] - The Eurozone will also publish a revised GDP figure for Q2, with expectations of a modest growth rate of 0.1% [11] - Japan's GDP data for Q2 will be released, following a 0.7% year-on-year decline in Q1, raising concerns about the economic outlook and potential implications for the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy [12]

Group 1: Impact on Economic Data Integrity - Trump's decision to dismiss the BLS director has raised concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic statistics, with experts warning that it may lead to public skepticism regarding the accuracy of economic data [1][3] - The dismissal is seen as a politicization of data that should remain independent and credible, with long-lasting negative effects anticipated [1][3] Group 2: Labor Market Data Challenges - The July employment report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 104,000, and previous months' data revised downward by a total of 258,000 jobs [2][4] - The BLS faces systemic challenges, including funding shortages and declining survey response rates, which complicate the accurate measurement of labor supply and demand [4][5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - Following the dismissal of the BLS director, a Federal Reserve governor announced her resignation, creating opportunities for Trump to appoint new members to the Fed's board [2][8] - Trump's criticism of the Fed's current leadership and potential changes in personnel could reshape the decision-making environment regarding monetary policy and regulatory discussions [7][8]