Group 1 - Economists are concerned that key economic data for October, particularly regarding inflation and unemployment, may be permanently lost due to the longest government shutdown in history [1][2] - The October unemployment rate will not be published for the first time in 77 years, although employment creation estimates will still be calculated [1][3] - The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October remains uncertain, with indications that it may not be published [1][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown has created significant challenges for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is responsible for compiling key economic reports [1][4] - The BLS has lost 25% of its staff since February, and one-third of leadership positions remain vacant, complicating the recovery process [4] - Data collection for October will be less accurate due to the inability to conduct timely surveys of households and businesses during the shutdown [3][4] Group 3 - The economic reports for September are expected to be released soon, but they will be retrospective and not reflect the economic conditions during the shutdown [5] - The release of November's economic reports may also be delayed as the BLS prioritizes completing the September and October reports [5]

Core Insights - India's inflation rate dropped to a historic low of 0.25% in October, driven by a significant decline in food prices, reinforcing market expectations for accelerated interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.25%, which is below the market forecast of 0.4% and marks the lowest level since the current statistical series began in 2012 [1][3]. - Food prices experienced a substantial decline of 5.02% year-on-year, representing the largest drop on record, influenced by a high base from the previous year, improved supply conditions due to abundant rainfall, and tax reforms that reduced essential goods costs [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The soft inflation data has significantly heightened expectations for monetary policy easing, with markets anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in December and further cuts in February [3][5]. - Since February, the Reserve Bank has reduced the benchmark repo rate by 100 basis points, although it paused rate cuts in October [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Reserve Bank of India has revised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2026 from 3.1% to 2.6%, indicating that actual inflation may be weaker than previously anticipated and well below the 4% policy target [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the inflation rate could fall below 2% this fiscal year, creating favorable conditions for a rate cut in December and further reductions in February [6].

Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]

包括劳工统计局和人口普查局在内的统计机构在政府停摆期间无法收集数据，导致一些依赖人工收集方 法的报告极易受到影响。美国劳工统计局无法发布10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）的风险日益加剧，同 时经济学家也担心另一项失业率相关的调查能否发布。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月12日电白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，时长创纪录的政府停摆意味着一些本应 于10月收集的经济数据可能永远不会被记录下来，这使得全面评估美国经济健康状况变得困难。 "据我了解，有些调查实际上根本没有完成，所以我们可能永远也无法知道那个月发生了什么，"哈塞特 周二表示，"在数据机构恢复运作之前，我们可能还要经历一段阴云笼罩的时期。" ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has created a significant "black hole" in the economy, leading to a backlog of critical economic reports that will soon be released [2] - The September employment report is expected to be released soon, with estimates suggesting it could be available as early as this week or early next week [2] - The shutdown has severely impacted the release of key inflation reports for October, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which may not be published at all [4] Group 2 - The delay in the September employment report and the potential absence of the October inflation reports will hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in their upcoming meetings [4] - The October employment report is likely to be delayed significantly, possibly until just before the Federal Reserve's next meeting on December 9-10, and may even be combined with the November report [4][6] - The forced leave of hundreds of thousands of federal employees could distort the data in the October report, making it less reliable [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the 0.4% increase in August, and year-on-year it increased by 3.0%, slightly above the previous value of 2.9% but still below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline, with the year-on-year increase also dropping to 3.0% [1] - Analysts believe that the moderate inflation growth opens up the possibility for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, despite short-term increases in energy prices [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities anticipates that the core inflation in September will continue to show a moderate upward trend, reinforcing the market's pricing of a rate cut in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's focus is shifting towards supporting the labor market, as signs of weakness in the job market have become more apparent, even in the absence of government data during the shutdown [2] - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in October, the path for future easing by the Federal Reserve may be more constrained, with potential upward pressure on inflation leading to a possible pause in rate cuts in December or January [2]

Core Insights - The latest inflation data for September in the U.S. shows a lower-than-expected performance across the board, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [1][2]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month, which is below both August's increase of 0.4% and market expectations [2]. - Food prices rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, while energy prices increased by 1.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, with gasoline prices up 4.1% month-over-month but down 0.5% year-over-year [4]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, both figures being 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and market expectations [4][5]. Housing and Vehicle Costs - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year [7]. - New car prices rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 0.8% year-over-year, while used car and truck prices decreased by 0.4% month-over-month but increased by 5.1% year-over-year [7]. Government and Market Reactions - The CPI report is the only official economic data released during the U.S. federal government shutdown, as it is necessary for calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by November 1 [7]. - The White House commented that the inflation report exceeded economists' expectations, highlighting stable prices and wage growth outpacing inflation [7]. - Following the CPI report, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting rose to nearly 99%, with only a slight chance of maintaining current rates [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week, leading to a "data famine" on Wall Street, with the delayed release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report expected to miss its optimal impact on the market [1] - The market anticipates a core CPI increase of 0.3% for September, slightly below expectations, with tariff pressures expected to raise prices in categories like communications and household goods [1][2] - Despite potential higher CPI data, the market's view on the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change significantly, with nearly 100% certainty that a 25 basis point rate cut will occur in the upcoming meeting [1][4] CPI Predictions - Predictions for the core CPI vary, with estimates ranging from 0.2% to 0.4%, but the majority expect a 0.3% increase [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the impact of tariffs will contribute approximately 0.07 percentage points to core inflation, primarily affecting sensitive categories [2][3] - Excluding tariff effects, underlying inflation pressures are diminishing, supported by a decrease in housing rent and labor market contributions [2] Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of tariff transmission to consumer prices is a key focus for Wall Street [3] - BNP Paribas views the September CPI as a critical checkpoint, suggesting a downward risk due to moderate housing costs and limited tariff transmission [3] - Citi expects a core CPI increase of 0.28%, indicating that weakening labor and housing markets are reducing inflation risks, supporting further easing by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - The CPI report is unlikely to alter market expectations for a rate cut, with projections indicating a total of 54 basis points of cuts by year-end [4][5] - Market volatility is anticipated if CPI data exceeds expectations, with some analysts viewing it as a buying opportunity due to strong economic fundamentals [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal a divergence in views among officials regarding inflation and labor market conditions, with a consensus that inflation impacts are diminishing [5][7]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, severely impairing the ability to release key economic reports such as inflation and employment data, leading to a state of "data blindness" for both domestic and international markets [1][3][5] - The shutdown has resulted in the postponement of critical economic indicators, including the September employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is essential for monetary policy decisions [3][4][6] Economic Data Impact - Federal agencies responsible for economic indicators have halted nearly all data collection and publication, causing significant delays in the release of important reports that are viewed as market barometers [3][5] - The delay in the CPI report, now scheduled for October 24, raises concerns about its accuracy, as it may be based on incomplete data due to the ongoing shutdown [3][4] Global Repercussions - The lack of U.S. economic data is affecting global policymakers, complicating their decision-making processes and increasing the risk of errors in judgment [5][6] - Officials from various countries, including Japan, have expressed concerns about the implications of U.S. data unavailability on their own economic policies [5][6] Alternative Data Sources - Despite the shutdown, the Federal Reserve continues to gather economic information through its networks, and private data service providers are offering alternative data, albeit with limitations [7] - Experts warn that while alternative data sources exist, they cannot fully replace the comprehensive and official datasets typically provided by U.S. agencies [7] Trust and Governance Concerns - The ongoing shutdown and the resulting data disruption are raising questions about the governance and reliability of the U.S. economic system, which could impact foreign exchange reserves and monetary decisions globally [7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that political interference in data quality and timeliness could further complicate policy-making for central banks and policymakers worldwide [7]

Group 1: Central Bank Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech almost confirms a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, indicating that the U.S. economic outlook has not changed significantly since September, but labor market risks are rising [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated that inflation and economic outlook risks are broadly balanced, keeping all options open regarding future rate cuts, with a 50% probability of a rate cut by Q1 2026 [3] - Bank of England Governor Bailey warned of the coexistence of inflation above target and a weak labor market, with the IMF predicting the fastest price growth among major economies for the UK over the next two years [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the significant speeches from the three central bank leaders, the impact on the bond market was limited, with UK government bond yields falling between 4.9 to 6.9 basis points [3] - German long-term yields decreased by approximately 3.2 basis points, while U.S. Treasury yields varied from a decrease of 2.1 basis points for 2-year bonds to an increase of 1.3 basis points for 30-year bonds [3] - The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.16, partly benefiting from a weaker dollar, and stock index futures indicate a likely higher opening for the market [3] Group 3: Economic Data - China's September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month, ending a three-month decline, while year-on-year it fell by 0.3%, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased from 0.5% to 1%, marking a 19-month high, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [4] - In Australia, the central bank's assistant governor warned that core inflation for the September quarter may exceed expectations, with a 40% probability of a rate cut anticipated in November [5]