美联储官员今年一直维持利率不变，等待观察关税及其他政策对美国经济通胀和就业的影响。不过，弱 于预期的就业报告增加了9月降息的可能性。根据利率期货，投资者认为下月降息的概率超过90%。 古尔斯比表示，他希望等待更多经济数据出炉，并补充称"经济仍存在诸多优势"。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五表示，本周好坏参半的通胀数据，加之关税带来的持续不确定性，让他对 降息有些犹豫。他希望至少再看一份通胀报告，以确认持续的价格压力是否在升温。古尔斯比是今年12 位联邦公开市场委员会有投票权的委员之一。 古尔斯比发表上述言论之前，美国商务部周五数据显示，7月美国零售销售全面增长。未剔除通胀因素 的零售销售额增长0.5%，6月数据被上修至增长0.9%。剔除汽车后的销售额增长0.3%。 "近期数据有些好坏参半，"古尔斯比周五在接受CNBC采访时谈及近期通胀数据称，"我觉得我们至少 还需要一份报告，才能判断我们是否仍走在黄金路径上。"他所谓的"黄金路径"即通胀放缓与劳动力市 场稳定并行，最终导向降息。 古尔斯比呼应了本周早些时候的言论，他对周二公布的通胀报告中显示的高服务通胀表示担忧。他表 示，本周公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者 ...

【导读】美国通胀数据高于预期，美股期指跳水 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，突发利空，美国降息预期突变！市场全线跳水，一起看看发生了什么事情。 突发利空 8 月14日晚间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的报告显示，7月美国批发价格涨幅远超预期， 这可能表明通胀仍是美国经济面临的威胁。 衡量最终需求商品和服务价格的生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，为2022年6月以来 的最大单月涨幅， 而经济学家此前预期为上涨0.2% 。 剔除食品和能源价格的核心PPI环比上涨0.9%，高于预期的0.3%；剔除食品、能源和贸易服务后的指数 上涨0.6%，为2022年3月以来的最大涨幅。 从同比来看，PPI上涨3.3%，为2月以来的最大12个月涨幅，远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。 尽管PPI的关注度低于消费者价格指数（CPI），但它为了解价格传导链条提供了重要信息。这两项指标 共同影响美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE），这是美联储用于通胀预测的主要参考指标，将 于本月晚些时候更新。 由于本周早些时候公布的CPI大致符合预期，市场原本几乎笃定美联储将在9月的会议下调关键利率。 根据CME集团的"美联储观察工具"，PPI数 ...

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 此外，从美联储较为倚重的失业率指标来看，7月的最新值为4.2%，已经连续三个月维持不变，和2020 年4月14.8%的高点相比，下降了10.6个百分点，并且整体趋势平缓。就历史数据而言，目前美国的失业 率约维持在2017年7月~2019年1月的水平区间。 有意思的是，如果继续做个历史数据的对比，或者也可以理解白宫对美联储的不满。就以同期数据为 例，2017年7月~2019年1月期间，美国的PCE为1.5%至1.4%之间，当时美国联邦基金利率的区间分别为 1%~1.25%、2.25%~2.5%。或许在白宫看来，既然美联储公布了货币政策的工具箱，那么当前的PCE和 失业率指标，已足以证明美联储应该尽快降息。 可是，经济常识告诉我们，物价冲击具有延迟性，如果美国不能与贸易伙伴达成一致性关税，那么美国 通胀失控的风险并不能完全排除，所以美联储的观望也可以理解。毕竟，制约美联储降息"踟蹰不前"的 最大变量就是关税冲击对美国物价的不确定性。这在历史上也并非无例可循。 但当前问题的关键在于，美联储的高利率与美国政府居高不下利息支出形成了悖论。目前，美国国债已 经走到了"技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating a mixed inflation outlook and potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3][5]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations and slowing from June's 0.3% rise; year-on-year growth remained at 2.7% [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since January, and year-on-year growth reached 3.1%, up from June's 2.9% [3]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, market analysts expressed relief, suggesting that the data reduces concerns about inflation, thereby increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4][5]. - Current market expectations indicate over an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17 [5]. Price Drivers - Housing and service prices led the increase, with housing costs rising 0.2% month-on-month; dining out and medical services also saw increases of 0.3% each [6][7]. - Energy prices, however, fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.2%, acting as a counterbalance to overall inflation [7]. Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, housing prices increased by 3.5%, and medical services rose by 4.3%, while used car prices decreased by 4.8%, and overall energy prices fell by 6.6% [8]. Data Collection Concerns - The article highlights concerns regarding the reliability of CPI data due to a reduction in sample collection by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may lead to increased volatility in monthly data [11][12]. - The reduction in data collection is attributed to budget and staffing cuts, raising questions about the stability and representativeness of inflation readings [12]. Tariff Impact - There are indications that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are beginning to affect consumer prices, with a survey showing that 32% of small businesses plan to raise prices, the highest level since March of the previous year [12]. - Economists suggest that price increases in imported goods such as tools, appliances, and furniture signal that tariffs are starting to exert upward pressure on prices [13].

Core Viewpoint - The July inflation data in the U.S. shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, contrary to market expectations of a rise to 2.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with expectations, and slowed down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year increase accelerated from 2.9% to 3.1%, surpassing the market forecast of 3% [2]. Group 2: Key Drivers - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, while food prices remained flat and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. - New car prices remained unchanged due to the impact of tariffs, but used car and truck prices increased by 0.5% [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, traders are betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the remaining three meetings of the year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising above 90% [5]. - Analysts suggest that the report may not alter the Federal Reserve's future trajectory, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [8].

Core Viewpoint - The July CPI data from the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than expected, while the core CPI has risen to its highest level since February, indicating a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2][4]. Group 1: CPI Data Analysis - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.8% respectively [4]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 0.3% and 3% [4]. - Housing costs, which increased by 0.2%, were the main driver of the CPI increase, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose as traders bet on a near-certain rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, while the dollar weakened and U.S. stock index futures surged [9]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now close to 90%, up from 74% prior to the report [12]. - Analysts suggest that the overall CPI figure of 0.2% indicates that the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index may approach the 2% target, allowing the Federal Reserve to ease policy in September [12]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Former White House economist Jared Bernstein noted that while tariffs are reflected in the data, they have not reached alarming levels [8]. - Some analysts believe that the inflationary pressures appear manageable, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue its path toward rate cuts [12]. - CreditSights' strategy head indicated that as long as inflation does not unexpectedly rise, the market will likely continue to bet on further rate cuts, with a significant expectation of a 50 basis point cut due to concerns over the labor market [12].

美国7月CPI今晚来袭，全球市场正屏息以待，普遍预期通胀小幅回升，但不足以改变美联储9月降息路 径。 美东时间周二早8:30（北京时间周二晚8:30），美国劳工统计局将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。根 据彭博汇总的共识预期： 美国7月CPI环比上涨0.2%，较6月下滑0.1个百分点，同比从前月的2.7%升至2.8%；核心CPI（剔除食品 和能源）环比上涨0.3%，较6月上行0.1个百分点，同比涨幅扩大至3.0%，创下自2月份以来的最高纪 录。 | | | Headline | Core | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | m/m | y/y | m/m | y/y | | Bank of America | 0.24% | 2.8% | 0.31% | 3.1% | | Barclays | 0.24% | 2.7% | 0.29% | 3.0% | | BMO Capital Markets | 0.26% | 2.8% | 0.28% | 3.1% | | BNP Paribas | 0.26% | 2.8% | 0.32% | 3.0% | | Citig ...

CPI仍高于美联储设定的2%目标水平 6月份， 关税驱动的成本压力迹象开始显现，服装价格环比上涨0.4%，鞋类价格在连续数月下跌后上 涨0.7%。家具和床上用品价格也上涨0.4%， 扭转了5月份0.8%的跌幅，这再次表明 成本上涨开始传 导至消费者层面。 点击蓝字，关注我们 富国银行经济学家Sarah House上周表示： "7月CPI将进一步显示关税上调推高价格的迹象。 目前价格 调整过程尚处于初期阶段，尚不清楚更高的进口税最终会如何在终端消费者、美国卖家和外国出口商 之间进行分配。" House补充道："与此同时， 消费者日益增长的厌倦情绪使得普遍提价变得更加困难。 我们继续预计 下半年通胀将回升，但不会大幅上升，核心CPI和核心个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)都将在第四季度回 升至3%左右。" 美国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)将于北京时间周二20:30公布，投资者密切关注美国总统特朗普的关税政 策对消费者成本的影响程度。 市场预计美国7月CPI同比上涨2.8%，涨幅高于6月份的2.7%。 受汽油 价格下跌和食品通胀预期略有回落的推动， 预计美国7月CPI环比上涨0.2%，较6月份0.3%的涨幅略有 放缓。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is not prepared to yield to Trump's immediate interest rate cut demands, indicating that certain conditions must be met for a change in stance [1] - Powell emphasizes the need to observe inflation data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly in light of high tariffs potentially raising inflation temporarily [2][3] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical; a month-over-month increase of 0.2% or higher could delay rate cuts until September, while a low increase like May's 0.1% could reignite July cut expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is tasked with maintaining low inflation while also ensuring a strong job market, with Powell suggesting that significant deterioration in employment could prompt earlier or more aggressive rate cuts [3] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, signs of stress in the job market are emerging, including a slowdown in hiring and an increase in unemployment claims [3]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada rose by 1.7% year-on-year in May, remaining unchanged from April. Excluding energy, the CPI increased by 2.7%, a slowdown from April's 2.9% [1][4] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.6%, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.2% [1] Price Changes by Category - Housing prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in May, down from 3.4% in April. Rent prices rose by 4.5%, lower than April's 5.2% [3][5] - Travel prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in May, contrasting with a 6.7% increase in April. Airline ticket prices fell by 10.1%, with an expanded decline [3] - Gasoline prices continued to decline, down 15.5% year-on-year in May, compared to an 18.1% drop in April. However, there was a month-on-month increase of 1.9% due to rising refining profits [3] - Mobile service prices saw a reduced year-on-year decline of 5.5% in May, compared to 10.8% in April, with a month-on-month increase of 7.2% due to the end of promotional activities [3] - New car prices increased by 4.9% year-on-year in May, up from 4.6% in April [3] Market Analysis - The slowdown in rent increases and the decline in travel prices exerted downward pressure on the CPI, while the reduced declines in gasoline and mobile service prices provided upward support [4] - The increase in rental supply and a slowdown in population growth in Ontario contributed to the significant deceleration in rent price increases, affecting the national average [4] - Mortgage interest costs have seen a slowdown for the 21st consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in May, down from 6.8% previously [4] - The Canadian Statistics Agency noted that U.S. tariffs and Canada's countermeasures could impact final consumer prices, but the specific effects are already embedded in the collected final prices, negating the need for special adjustments to the CPI [4]