来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：12月消费者价格指数（CPI）不太可能改变美联储当前的观望态度，因 为官员们很可能希望在降息前看到更多证据，证明通胀正在企稳并逐步下降。美联储在过去三次会议上 连续下调基准利率，最近一次是在12月，尽管去年通胀已停止下降。官员们下调利率，是出于对劳动市 场可能出现比预期更大的放缓风险的担忧。要恢复降息，美联储官员可能需要看到新的证据显示劳动市 场条件正在恶化或者价格压力正在减弱。后者可能还需要至少再几个月的通胀数据才能显现。 ...

隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨87.96美元，涨幅1.95%，报4597.05美，金价盘中最高触及4630.28美元，创下 历史新高。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4594美元附近徘徊。 重磅数据来袭！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，标普500指数涨0.16%，均创收盘新 高，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.26%。 消息面上，美国前财经要员联名批评特朗普政府对鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席 鲍威尔启动刑事调查。 不过，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士12日发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对联邦储备委员会主 席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 此外，曾担任美联储主席的耶伦、伯南克和格林斯潘发表声明声援现任美联储主席鲍威尔。他们称针对 鲍威尔的刑事调查是对美联储独立性的"前所未有"攻击。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 摩根大通认为，特朗普政府最新一轮对美联储独立性的攻击，至少在短期内对美股构成威胁。"宏观与 企业基本面支持 ...

新华财经北京12月26日电东京通胀降温幅度超出预期，随着食品和能源价格带来的压力减弱，但这不太 可能阻止日本央行继续加息。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，12月东京不含生鲜食品的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.3%，较 前一个月的2.8%明显放缓。这是自8月以来首次出现通胀放缓，主要反映了食品价格涨幅趋缓以及能源 成本下降。此前经济学家预计该指标将放缓至2.5%。 整体通胀指标从上年同期的2.7%降至2.0%；而剔除能源价格的更深层通胀指标也放缓至2.6%。 东京的通胀数据通常被视为全国通胀走势的领先指标。尽管整体通胀数据明显放缓，但仍高于日本央行 的2%目标，使央行继续走在进一步收紧政策的轨道上。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美国11月通胀数据引发争议，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯明确指出数据遭技术因素扭曲，但也肯定通胀放缓 进程仍在持续。 纽约联储主席长威廉姆斯周五表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性，最近的就业和通胀数据也并未 改变他的看法。 威廉姆斯在在CNBC的"Squawk Box"节目中表示："就我个人而言，我认为目前没有必要在货币政策方 面采取进一步行动，因为我们已经实施的降息措施让我们处于非常有利的地位。我希望看到通胀率降至 2%，同时又不给劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。这需要权衡。" 对于备受争议的消费者价格指数（CPI），威廉姆斯表示，"技术因素"可能扭曲了11月份的通胀数据， 导致总体读数低于正常水平。 威廉姆斯称："存在一些特殊的实际因素，这与他们无法收集10月份和11月上半月的数据有关。正因如 此，我认为某些类别的数据出现了偏差，导致CPI读数下降了大约十分之一。 " 他补充道，"目前难以确定具体影响，等拿到12月的数据后，我认为我们将能更清楚地了解这种扭曲的 程度、影响有多大，但我确实认为这些技术因素导致读数被压低了一些。" 美国劳工统计局延迟发布的报告显示，上月CPI年化增长率为2.7%。道琼斯调查的经济学家此 ...

12月18日，英国通胀率跌至八个月来的最低水平，降幅超出预期，交易员认为这几乎可以确定英国央行 将在周四降息。英国国家统计局周三公布的数据显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）年率降至3.2%，不 仅低于10月的3.6%，也低于经济学家所预期的3.5%。最新的通胀数据表明，英国物价压力的缓解速度 快于英国央行决策者的预期。英国国家统计局首席经济学家Grant Fitzner指出，通常在每年这个时候上 涨的食品价格出现回落，是推动此次通胀下降的主要因素。此外，备受关注的服务业通胀率也从10月的 4.5%微幅放缓至4.4%。Capital Economics的首席英国经济学家Paul Dales在给客户的报告中直言： "通胀 消退的速度比所有人想象的都要快得多。" 另外，当地时间周三，美联储理事沃勒表示，鉴于市场担忧就业市场疲软，美联储仍有降息空间。沃勒 表示："我仍然认为，我们可能距离中性利率还有50到100个基点的差距。"这意味着美联储仍有降息空 间。他强调，鉴于目前的经济前景，美联储仅凭通胀前景缓和即可降息，"没有必要急于降息"，在通胀 可能趋于温和的经济环境下，"我们可以稳步地将利率降至中性水平"。对于美联 ...

12月18日（周四）21:30，美国将公布11月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计将显示通胀小幅回升。 经济学家预计，11月CPI同比或从9月的3.0%小幅上升至3.1%。剔除食品和能源后的核心CPI同比料将录得3%。 由于政府停摆导致10月期间大部分数据无法采集，美国劳工统计局（BLS）取消发布10月的CPI数据。这也意味着，BLS将无法提供11月的环比数据。一位 BLS发言人表示： "即将发布的新闻稿和数据库更新中，将不包含2025年11月的单月百分比变化数据，因为缺少2025年10月的数据。" 法国外贸银行（Natixis）首席美国经济学家克里斯托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）表示，环比变化对于判断通胀趋势至关重要。"人们真正关注的是环比数 据，"他说，"同比通胀并不能提供太多信号。" 尽管如此，经济学家仍尝试通过将11月价格指数水平与9月进行对比，来推测通胀的短期变化趋势。市场预测显示，整体CPI在11月可能环比上涨0.3%，与9 月的0.30%涨幅相当，核心CPI环比涨幅预计为0.3%，略高于9月的0.2%。 数据采集缺失可能对CPI质量产生持续影响 数据采集缺失也为本次CPI的可靠 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming November CPI report is anticipated to have limited impact on the stock market, with traders expecting a volatility of only 0.7% for the S&P 500 index, significantly lower than the 1% average seen in previous reports [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted towards labor market signals rather than minor fluctuations in inflation rates, indicating a potential for interest rate stability in the near future [3][4] - The reliability of the November CPI report is questioned due to the absence of October data, which may affect the overall assessment of inflation trends [3][4] Market Sentiment - Market participants are adopting a more indifferent stance towards the CPI data, suggesting that it may be deemed either unimportant or unreliable [3][4] - The sentiment is further influenced by the ongoing low employment growth and rising unemployment rates, which reflect a cooling labor market [4][5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in January, as policymakers are likely to wait for more comprehensive economic data before making decisions [3][4] - Some Fed officials continue to emphasize the importance of inflation, with concerns about tariffs impacting prices, while others focus on employment risks [4][5] Expectations for CPI Data - Analysts predict that the year-on-year CPI increase will remain around 3%, with any significant deviation potentially surprising traders [5][6] - The importance of CPI reports is diminishing as the Federal Reserve prepares for a leadership change, which may lead to a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [5][6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal trends may also contribute to the muted expectations for the CPI data, as the stock market approaches a traditional bull market phase [7] - The S&P 500 index has recently experienced a decline, closing just 1.5% below its historical high, indicating a potential for upward movement [8]

Group 1 - Economists are concerned that key economic data for October, particularly regarding inflation and unemployment, may be permanently lost due to the longest government shutdown in history [1][2] - The October unemployment rate will not be published for the first time in 77 years, although employment creation estimates will still be calculated [1][3] - The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October remains uncertain, with indications that it may not be published [1][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown has created significant challenges for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is responsible for compiling key economic reports [1][4] - The BLS has lost 25% of its staff since February, and one-third of leadership positions remain vacant, complicating the recovery process [4] - Data collection for October will be less accurate due to the inability to conduct timely surveys of households and businesses during the shutdown [3][4] Group 3 - The economic reports for September are expected to be released soon, but they will be retrospective and not reflect the economic conditions during the shutdown [5] - The release of November's economic reports may also be delayed as the BLS prioritizes completing the September and October reports [5]

Core Insights - India's inflation rate dropped to a historic low of 0.25% in October, driven by a significant decline in food prices, reinforcing market expectations for accelerated interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.25%, which is below the market forecast of 0.4% and marks the lowest level since the current statistical series began in 2012 [1][3]. - Food prices experienced a substantial decline of 5.02% year-on-year, representing the largest drop on record, influenced by a high base from the previous year, improved supply conditions due to abundant rainfall, and tax reforms that reduced essential goods costs [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The soft inflation data has significantly heightened expectations for monetary policy easing, with markets anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in December and further cuts in February [3][5]. - Since February, the Reserve Bank has reduced the benchmark repo rate by 100 basis points, although it paused rate cuts in October [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Reserve Bank of India has revised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2026 from 3.1% to 2.6%, indicating that actual inflation may be weaker than previously anticipated and well below the 4% policy target [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the inflation rate could fall below 2% this fiscal year, creating favorable conditions for a rate cut in December and further reductions in February [6].

Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]