沃特未透露裁员具体人数、具体部门。据美国媒体报道，此次针对联邦雇员的裁员可能人数多、影响 广。国土安全部、卫生与公共服务部、财政部等均有裁员计划。 《纽约时报》一篇报道认为，在政府"停摆"期间试图解雇联邦雇员，特朗普政府此举可能会让当前财政 僵局进一步升级、导致高昂代价。特朗普将"停摆"视为一种政治优势，借此机会重新安排联邦预算，并 对政治对手进行报复。 由于政府关门，美国劳工统计局此前未能按计划于10月3日公布月度就业数据统计报告。不过，据 CNBC报道，美国劳工统计局将于美国东部时间10月24日周五上午8：30公布2025年9月份的消费者价格 指数（CPI）数据，比原定时间晚9天。 德意志银行分析师在一份报告中表示，政府关门导致经济数据停电，这让投资者"在某种程度上对美国 经济视而不见"。 密歇根大学10日公布的数据显示，美国10月份消费者信心指数初值为55，低于9月份的55.1，连续三个 月下降。尽管该数据高于经济学家此前普遍预期的54.2，但仍显著低于2025年初及特朗普重新入主白宫 前的水平。当前指数已接近2021年通胀高峰期的低位，延续了自特朗普2025年再度就任以来的下行趋 势。 新华财经北京1 ...

要知道，那些平日里按时发布的经济数据，可不是简单的数字罗列，它们更像是经济健康状况的 "晴雨表"，有着不可替 代的公共价值。 就拿月度就业报告来说，它通过非农就业人口增长、失业率、平均时薪等核心指标。 每一个数据的变动，都可能预示着就业市场是繁荣还是面临困境，是企业在积极扩张招人，还是陷入了裁员收缩的艰难 境地。 而每周公布的初请失业金人数数据，更是扮演着重要的角色，能迅速敏锐地捕捉到就业市场动态的细微变化，哪怕只是 一丝裁员潮兴起的迹象，或者经济有滑向衰退的苗头，它都能第一时间反馈出来。 政府停摆，就如同抽走了经济运行大厦的重要支柱，它直接切断了政策制定者和投资者们赖以生存的经济数据 "生命 线"。 劳工统计局（BLS）是美国政府停摆期间业务将暂停的关键政府机构之一。美国劳工部周一表示，若发生政府部分停 摆，其下属统计机构将暂停发布经济数据，其中包括备受关注的9月月度就业报告，非农就业数据为报告中的一个重要项 目。这份就业报告对美联储官员、企业及家庭的决策至关重要。 华盛顿的政治僵局，正让全球市场陷入一场前所未有的"信息饥荒"。当劳工统计局在10月3日暂停发布关键的就业报告 时，这不仅仅是一个数据的延迟，更 ...

一场潜在的美国政府关门，可能即将切断美联储和华尔街最重要的"信息来源"，若没有数据，美联储还 如何为降息"辩护"？ 如果国会议员们不能在当前财年于周二结束前达成协议，许多联邦业务将暂停，非必要雇员将被强制休 无薪假或解雇。 如果政府在9月30日之后关门，首当其冲的将是定于10月3日发布的劳工统计局就业报告。该机构关于通 胀的重磅报告——消费者价格指数（CPI）将是日程表上下一个受影响的重要数据，而来自人口普查局 的关于零售销售和新住宅建设的报告也面临被推迟的风险。 | Indicator 指标 | Scheduled date 预定日期 | | --- | --- | | Initial jobless claims 首次申请失业救济人数 | Oct. 2, 9, 16 10月2日、9日、16日 | | Monthly jobs report 每月就业报告 | Oct. 3 10月3日 | | Trade balance 贸易平衡 | Oct. 7 10月7日 | | Consumer price index 消费者物价指数 | Oct. 15 10月15日 | | Retail sales 零售额 | Oc ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since February [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI increased by 2.9%, aligning with expectations but up 0.2 percentage points from July [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with previous months and market expectations [3] Group 2 - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, while energy prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month and slightly by 0.2% year-on-year [3] - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, grew by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase this year, and 3.6% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - The labor market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, significantly above the expected 235,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021 [5] - This increase in jobless claims may indicate rising layoffs, suggesting a potential turning point in the employment market [5] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that if inflation approaches the 2% target in the coming months, monetary policy should be more flexible in response to potential rapid deterioration in the labor market [5] Group 4 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have intensified, with traders anticipating a greater than 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [7] - There is a consensus that current interest rates are still restrictive to the economy, prompting the Fed to consider a more accommodative stance in light of weakening employment data and dual inflation risks [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the slight rise in inflation in August strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next week, although the pace is expected to be cautious [1][3][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking the highest increase since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, both slightly above expectations [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, remaining stable and in line with expectations [1][5] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92.7%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7.3% [3] - Analysts suggest that the August inflation data supports a 25 basis point cut but does not provide justification for a larger cut [3][5] - The core inflation rate remains stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, despite rising core commodity prices [5][6] Group 3 - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest since June 2023, and non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations [6][8] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Some analysts believe the rise in jobless claims may reflect seasonal fluctuations rather than a significant decline in labor demand [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August is expected to show a gradual increase in inflation, influenced by rising food and energy prices, with a projected year-on-year growth from 2.7% in July to 2.9% in August [1][2][5] - Analysts suggest that the recent weakening of U.S. economic data, including employment figures, reflects a cooling domestic demand trend, which may pave the way for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in September [1][5][7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][2] Group 2 - The articles highlight that the inflation data for July showed a stable year-on-year CPI growth of 2.7%, which was below market expectations, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, indicating a potential temporary nature of core inflation increases [2][3] - Analysts from various institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, predict that the inflation trend will continue to rise in August, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase in overall CPI driven by food and energy prices [2][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates is expected to be influenced by the upcoming inflation data, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, as indicated by market pricing [6][7][8] Group 3 - The articles discuss the potential market reactions to the CPI data, suggesting that lower-than-expected inflation could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, while higher-than-expected inflation might temper rate cut expectations [7][8] - Historical data indicates that the stock market's performance following the resumption of rate cuts is contingent on whether the economy enters a recession, with different outcomes observed in recessionary versus expansionary periods [7][8] - The anticipated impact of inflation data on the S&P 500 index is outlined, with specific ranges of core CPI growth linked to potential market movements, indicating a nuanced relationship between inflation metrics and stock performance [8]

Group 1 - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions on whether a surprise 50 basis point cut will occur instead [2] - The overall market sentiment has shifted since Powell's change in stance at Jackson Hole, focusing on the speed of potential easing rather than the likelihood of it [2] - Predictions from Pantheon Macroeconomics suggest three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, while Wedbush forecasts two cuts [2] Group 2 - The non-farm payroll report indicates weak job growth, with only 22,000 new jobs added, and private sector data showing even poorer performance [3] - A report from Daiwa Capital Markets reveals that the average monthly job growth in the private sector from June to August was only 29,000, a significant drop from 100,000 before tariffs were implemented [3] - The private sector employment diffusion index fell to 48 in August, indicating more companies are laying off employees than hiring [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces pressure to fulfill its dual mandate of promoting full employment while also controlling inflation [5] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are expected to show rising inflation, which may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [5] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that unless inflation data is unusually weak, a significant rate cut is unlikely [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor's Office of Inspector General has initiated a review to assess the challenges faced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the collection and reporting of economic data [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced a reduction in data collection for two key inflation indicators, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] - There has been a significant downward revision in the estimates of new jobs added in the monthly Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1]

Group 1 - Wall Street expects the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show rising inflation, but the employment market will dominate market narratives, leading to moderate stock market volatility predictions [1][2] - Citigroup's U.S. equity trading strategist Stuart Kaiser indicates that options traders anticipate a mild fluctuation of about 0.7% in the S&P 500 index (SPX) post-CPI report, lower than the average actual volatility of 0.9% on CPI release days over the past year [1][2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting, with potential further cuts in October and December, influenced by signs of economic growth threats from weak employment data [1][2] Group 2 - Economists predict that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will rise by 0.3% month-over-month in August, maintaining a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2][3] - JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler outlines various scenarios for the S&P 500's reaction based on core CPI readings, with probabilities assigned to different ranges of CPI increases [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a robust annualized GDP growth rate of 3% for Q3, despite a slight decline from Q2's 3.3%, contributing to a lower risk perception among traders in the coming weeks [3][4] Group 3 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical level of 20, indicating that traders are not overly concerned about market volatility [4] - Citigroup's U.S. Economic Surprise Index is near its highest level since January, suggesting that positive economic surprises could complicate the Fed's inflation control efforts, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates [5][6] - The employment market will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions; a rate cut in October may signal continued pressure on employment data and no unexpected inflation increases [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in inflation pressures in the U.S. as of July, alongside a significant increase in consumer spending, indicating a complex economic landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting [3]. Inflation Pressure - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [4]. - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth accelerating to 2.9%, the highest level since February [4]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, was revised up to 0.4% in June and accelerated to 0.5% in July, marking the highest growth since March [5]. - The increase in spending was largely driven by durable goods purchases, which rose by 0.8%, particularly in automobiles, household furniture, and sporting goods [5]. Labor Market and Employment - Despite a low unemployment rate supporting consumption and wage growth, employers are hesitant to increase headcount due to rising operational costs from tariffs [5]. - Average monthly job growth over the past three months was reported at 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [5]. Policy Outlook - The July PCE data is one of three key reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, alongside the August non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [7]. - Many economists on Wall Street expect inflation to rise further due to increasing business costs and reduced inventory, with retailers and automakers warning that tariffs are raising their costs, which may be passed on to consumers [7]. Federal Reserve Consensus - There is a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve towards a potential rate cut in September, although significant divisions remain regarding inflation concerns and labor market weaknesses [8]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September stands at 84%, consistent with the PCE data release [7]. Consumer Sentiment - The proportion of consumers finding it "hard to get a job" rose to the highest level in four and a half years as of August, indicating growing concerns about the labor market [9]. - Despite concerns about inflation spiraling, the current data suggests a potential for a rate cut in September, although uncertainties remain due to strong consumer and core inflation rates exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [9].