智通财经APP获悉，2026年初，在德国经济复苏乏力的背景下，通胀率意外放缓至欧洲央行设定的目标 水平。据德国国家统计局周五公布的数据显示，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2%，较1月份的 2.1%回落0.1个百分点。值得注意的是，此前接受调查的经济学家普遍预测该通胀率将维持稳定，此次 数据意外低于市场预期。 尽管德国经济在多年低迷后显现复苏迹象，德国联邦银行仍认为其增长势头仅属"疲弱"。财政刺激措施 预计将于春季开始显现更明显成效，推动今年经济增长至少达到1%，并助力通胀稳定在2%的目标水 平。 欧洲央行官员曾多次表态，对当前的借贷成本水平颇为满意，自去年6月起便未再对其进行调整，原因 在于通胀率一直徘徊在2%的目标值附近。经济学家普遍预测，至少到2027年底，利率将不会进行任何 调整，即便当前通胀率持续低于央行设定的目标区间。 欧元区通胀数据将于下周二公布，分析师普遍预测该数据将达1.7%。德国通胀的放缓将被法国和西班 牙超出预期的通胀压力所抵消——法国通胀率大幅攀升至1.1%(较前值增长近两倍)，西班牙则小幅上升 至2.5%。 尽管欧洲央行周五早些时候发布的调查显示欧元区通胀预期有所下降，但消费者 ...

北京时间周五晚9点30分，美国将公布最新的批发通胀数据（PPI），市场希望据此获得价格走势的下 一个线索。这份详细列出卖方商品售价的报告因政府停摆而推迟发布。 经济学家预计，1月份的价格压力依然稳固，尽管不如去年12月份那样强烈。这可能预示着美联储最看 重的通胀指标将保持粘性，从而可能导致进一步降息的动力停滞。 接受FactSet调查的经济学家预计，1月份批发通胀率环比上升0.3%。这比12月份0.5%的月度增速有所降 温，但仍是一个相对坚挺的数据。预计年增长率为2.6%，较12月份3%的同比增幅有所回落。 如果1月份的PPI数据高于预期，这可能会使未来几个月的PCE通胀保持坚挺，并让降息变得遥不可及。 FBB Capital Partners的研究总监Mike Bailey写道："PPI数据如果符合预期，对经济和市场似乎是中性或 有利的。"他补充说，如果PPI强于预期，可能会降低美联储下次降息的可能性，并拖累股市。 然而，加拿大皇家银行（RBC）美国经济研究主管Mike Reid写道，数据强于预期的风险相当高。他预 计周五将再次看到一份"相当火热的PPI报告"，1月份整体和核心价格增长均环比上升0.5%，整 ...

Group 1 - The January non-farm employment report, originally scheduled for release on February 6, 2026, will be postponed due to the government shutdown [1] - The delay in the employment report means economists and investors will have to wait longer to assess whether the hiring stabilization trend observed in December will continue into the new year [1] - The market does not expect this delay to significantly impact the Federal Open Market Committee's next interest rate decision scheduled for March 17-18, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The government shutdown has also affected the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which was set to be published on the following Tuesday [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has faced delays in releasing various routine data due to the previous record-long shutdown that lasted until early November [2] - The ongoing government shutdown is attributed to Congress's failure to agree on a spending plan, particularly concerning funding for the Department of Homeland Security [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming inflation report is expected to show stable inflation pressures in the U.S., explaining the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1][2] - The November core PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating inflation levels remain significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - Despite some indicators suggesting a gradual cooling of inflation pressures, the core PCE typically exhibits less volatility compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Inflation Indicators - The overall PCE is also expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating a sideways movement in inflation levels [1] - Citigroup economists noted that the core PCE inflation may show "sticky rather than accelerating" characteristics towards the end of 2025 [1] - The data disturbances from last year's government shutdown continue to affect the November readings, with seasonal adjustments likely to revise recent data in the coming months [1] Wage Growth and Service Sector - Signs of inflation easing are accumulating, with wage growth significantly slowing down, approaching pre-pandemic levels according to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking indicator [1] - The cooling of wage growth complicates maintaining high service sector inflation, especially with expected declines in housing costs this year [1] Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are weighing conflicting signals, as inflation has not worsened but the cooling rate is insufficient to clearly support recent interest rate cuts [2] - The upcoming PCE report will be an important reference for policymakers, but it is unlikely to lead to immediate policy changes [2] - Investors currently anticipate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting [3]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is under pressure due to increased demand for the USD, with trading around 1.3425 in negative territory [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - Market attention is focused on the upcoming US retail sales data and Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide important references for USD trends and Federal Reserve policy expectations, influencing the GBP/USD exchange rate [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with November's growth rate and in line with market expectations. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.7% in November and below the 2.7% market expectation [3] - The market's initial excitement over the core CPI data quickly faded, as it did not shift expectations for the Fed's next rate cut from June to April. Observers believe that the rate cut initiated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in December is likely the last during his tenure [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced, potentially dragging down the USD. Powell revealed that the Justice Department issued a subpoena regarding the $2.5 billion cost overrun for the Fed's Washington headquarters renovation project, which he characterized as an attempt to pressure the Fed for rate cuts [3] - The ongoing external pressures may disrupt the stability of the Fed's monetary policy direction [3] Group 3: Bank of England's Policy Outlook - The Bank of England's dovish policy stance may further suppress the GBP/USD exchange rate. The BoE lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75% in December and indicated that it would continue to cut rates in 2026 after inflation eases, emphasizing the need to consider multiple factors in future monetary policy decisions [4] - Most analysts expect the BoE to maintain interest rates in February, with a likely 0.25 percentage point cut occurring in March or April [4] - The BoE's persistent dovish orientation will weaken the appeal of the GBP, compounded by a phase of increased USD demand, creating downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] - The upcoming US retail sales and PPI data will act as a catalyst for market sentiment, with strong data potentially boosting the USD and intensifying pressure on GBP/USD, while weaker data may provide temporary support for the GBP [4]

来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：12月消费者价格指数（CPI）不太可能改变美联储当前的观望态度，因 为官员们很可能希望在降息前看到更多证据，证明通胀正在企稳并逐步下降。美联储在过去三次会议上 连续下调基准利率，最近一次是在12月，尽管去年通胀已停止下降。官员们下调利率，是出于对劳动市 场可能出现比预期更大的放缓风险的担忧。要恢复降息，美联储官员可能需要看到新的证据显示劳动市 场条件正在恶化或者价格压力正在减弱。后者可能还需要至少再几个月的通胀数据才能显现。 ...

隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨87.96美元，涨幅1.95%，报4597.05美，金价盘中最高触及4630.28美元，创下 历史新高。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4594美元附近徘徊。 重磅数据来袭！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，标普500指数涨0.16%，均创收盘新 高，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.26%。 消息面上，美国前财经要员联名批评特朗普政府对鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席 鲍威尔启动刑事调查。 不过，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士12日发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对联邦储备委员会主 席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 此外，曾担任美联储主席的耶伦、伯南克和格林斯潘发表声明声援现任美联储主席鲍威尔。他们称针对 鲍威尔的刑事调查是对美联储独立性的"前所未有"攻击。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 摩根大通认为，特朗普政府最新一轮对美联储独立性的攻击，至少在短期内对美股构成威胁。"宏观与 企业基本面支持 ...

新华财经北京12月26日电东京通胀降温幅度超出预期，随着食品和能源价格带来的压力减弱，但这不太 可能阻止日本央行继续加息。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，12月东京不含生鲜食品的消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.3%，较 前一个月的2.8%明显放缓。这是自8月以来首次出现通胀放缓，主要反映了食品价格涨幅趋缓以及能源 成本下降。此前经济学家预计该指标将放缓至2.5%。 整体通胀指标从上年同期的2.7%降至2.0%；而剔除能源价格的更深层通胀指标也放缓至2.6%。 东京的通胀数据通常被视为全国通胀走势的领先指标。尽管整体通胀数据明显放缓，但仍高于日本央行 的2%目标，使央行继续走在进一步收紧政策的轨道上。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美国11月通胀数据引发争议，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯明确指出数据遭技术因素扭曲，但也肯定通胀放缓 进程仍在持续。 纽约联储主席长威廉姆斯周五表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性，最近的就业和通胀数据也并未 改变他的看法。 威廉姆斯在在CNBC的"Squawk Box"节目中表示："就我个人而言，我认为目前没有必要在货币政策方 面采取进一步行动，因为我们已经实施的降息措施让我们处于非常有利的地位。我希望看到通胀率降至 2%，同时又不给劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。这需要权衡。" 对于备受争议的消费者价格指数（CPI），威廉姆斯表示，"技术因素"可能扭曲了11月份的通胀数据， 导致总体读数低于正常水平。 威廉姆斯称："存在一些特殊的实际因素，这与他们无法收集10月份和11月上半月的数据有关。正因如 此，我认为某些类别的数据出现了偏差，导致CPI读数下降了大约十分之一。 " 他补充道，"目前难以确定具体影响，等拿到12月的数据后，我认为我们将能更清楚地了解这种扭曲的 程度、影响有多大，但我确实认为这些技术因素导致读数被压低了一些。" 美国劳工统计局延迟发布的报告显示，上月CPI年化增长率为2.7%。道琼斯调查的经济学家此 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level in eight months, leading traders to believe that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates soon [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate for November fell to 3.2%, down from 3.6% in October and below the expected 3.5% [1][6] - The decline in inflation is attributed mainly to a decrease in food prices, which typically rise at this time of year, and a slight easing in the service sector inflation rate from 4.5% in October to 4.4% [1][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, suggesting that the neutral interest rate may be 50 to 100 basis points away [1][7] - Waller emphasized that the Fed can gradually lower rates to neutral levels without rushing, as inflation is expected to moderate [1][7] - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank [2][7]