政策滞后效应
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美联储内部现分歧:卡什卡利倡年内再降息两次 但保留加息可能
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 13:47
Core Viewpoint - Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, supports the Fed's recent interest rate cut and suggests two additional cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, given the current economic conditions [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Recent economic data indicates signs of weakness, with monthly job growth significantly slowing and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.3% [1]. - Kashkari emphasizes that the deterioration of the labor market is a primary concern for current policy decisions [1]. Inflation Outlook - Despite concerns about potential tariff re-implementation by the Trump administration, Kashkari believes the impact on overall inflation will be limited, estimating that inflation is "unlikely to exceed 3%" [1]. - He notes that the current neutral interest rate may have risen to 3.1%, suggesting that the Fed's policy stance is not as tight as previously thought [2]. Policy Flexibility - Kashkari indicates that the Fed has the flexibility to implement faster rate cuts if the labor market worsens beyond expectations [3]. - There are internal disagreements within the Fed regarding future rate paths, with some policymakers suggesting that only one more cut may be necessary this year, or potentially no further cuts at all [2].