美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周一表示，鉴于限制利率的结构性因素尚未消失，美国经济的 中性利率可能与疫情前的水平相差无几。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

哈马克还透露，她对所谓"中性利率"（既不过度刺激也不抑制经济的水平)的判断高于大多数美联储官 员。作为前高盛高管，她今年并非联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的投票委员，将在2026年获得投票权。 事实上，鹰派声音并非哈马克一人。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在周四的采访中同样对降息表示怀疑。施 密德今年是FOMC的投票委员，但直到2028年才会再次轮到投票。 哈马克直言："我们已经连续四年高于通胀目标，必须把它控制下来。在我看来，需要维持适度紧缩的 政策立场，才能将通胀带回目标水平。" 她强调，不希望过早转向宽松，"因为一旦政策变得过于宽 松，可能会重新点燃通胀压力。" 这一表态与市场情绪形成鲜明对比。美联储主席鲍威尔当天上午在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，当 前形势"可能需要"政策放松，市场随即大幅押注9月降息。根据芝商所的FedWatch工具，交易员预计 FOMC 9月降息的概率接近90%。 智通财经APP获悉，周五，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克在接受采访时指出，只要通胀仍然构成威胁，她对 降息依旧保持谨慎态度。哈马克昨日才刚刚表示过，如果美联储立即召开货币政策会议，她不会支持降 息。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的堪萨斯城联储年度经济研讨 会上发表讲话，再次成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期，这是他作为美 联储主席最后一次在该年会上发表演讲。 在这场汇聚全球央行官员与经济学家的会议上，鲍威尔释放出市场期待已久的信号，美联储可能在9月 降息。不过，他同时提醒，劳动力市场的下行风险正在上升，这也是本届会议的核心议题。 鲍威尔表示，目前美联储政策依然处于限制性区间，而"风险平衡的变化可能需要调整政策立场"。虽然 这并非降息承诺，但已足以令市场解读为宽松信号。根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员押注美联储9月降 息25个基点的概率升至约86%。受此提振，道琼斯工业平均指数收涨1.89%，创下今年首个历史新高， 美债收益率则同步走低。 不过，鲍威尔在演讲中保持谨慎，强调"货币政策没有预设路径"，至于降息的幅度和节奏，则留待未来 再作讨论。 鲍威尔特别指出，就业市场正在经历一种"奇怪的平衡"，劳动力供需同时走弱。数据显示，7月非农新 增就业人数三个月均值仅为3.5万人，远低于2024年每月16.8万人的水平。 鲍威尔警告称："就业的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve, particularly his call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook, indicating potential legal implications for Cook [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting reveal that inflation risks have overshadowed concerns about the labor market, leading to internal divisions regarding interest rate policies [1] - NATO member countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine during a recent video conference, emphasizing the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising from around 3311 to a peak of 3351, driven by Trump's demands regarding the Federal Reserve [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes was anticipated, with gold showing a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart [2] - Despite the recent bullish trend, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with targets set at 3245 and potentially down to 3000-2950 [5] Group 3 - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and manufacturing statistics for August, are expected to influence market sentiment [6] - The market is at a critical juncture, with potential resistance levels identified at 3358-60 and 3370-75, while support is seen at 3330 and 3320 [7] - The overall market behavior suggests a pattern of initial declines followed by recoveries, with traders preparing for potential volatility as the September Fed meeting approaches [9]

联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 美联储被喻为美国政治中的"第四权力"和"金融最高法院"，但当下已成为特朗普改造深层政府这场"权力 游戏"的风暴中心。这场"政治危机"背后，更根本的问题是美联储能否"操纵"利率？何为美债利率曲线陡 峭化的根源、"宽财政+宽货币"的政策路径会否生变？ 一、美联储的"政治危机"：美联储换届与特朗普引导降息预期的"三张王牌" 6月初以来，美国总统特朗普何时提名以及提名谁为"影子美联储主席"的话题热度不减。 截止到8月9 日，市场预计的前三位"影子主席"候选人分别为：美联储理事沃勒（26.6%）、白宫国家经济委员会 （NEC）主任哈赛特（13.7%）和前美联储理事沃什（7.9%）。 影子主席已经成为市场定价的一条"主线"。 对市场而言，提名谁或并非矛盾的主要方面，本质上都是特 朗普的"影子"，且货币政策立场都偏"鸽派"。特朗普"解雇"鲍威尔和鲍威尔提前辞职均属"尾部风险"事 件，但特朗普"借题发挥"引导市场降息预期是真实有效的。 特朗普最多或有"三张王牌"引导降息预期 ：第一，由于Kugler提前辞职，特朗普提名米兰（Miran）代 理；第二，年内提名一位"鸽派"的影子主席；第三，如果鲍威尔不 ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the current "political crisis" surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [3][4] - Market expectations for the next "shadow Fed chair" candidates are led by Chris Waller (26.6%), Kevin Hassett (13.7%), and Kevin Warsh (7.9%), all of whom are perceived as having dovish monetary policy stances [10][16] - The Federal Reserve's ability to "set" but not "manipulate" policy rates is emphasized, with long-term interest rates being more influenced by macroeconomic factors than short-term rates [5][47] Group 2 - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" is suggested as necessary for sustainable fiscal reform, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit could lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9] - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [9][19] - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to influence the yield curve is limited, with market pricing often being overly dovish during rate hike cycles and overly hawkish during rate cut cycles [6][41]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a complex economic landscape as he prepares for his farewell speech, balancing the dual objectives of price stability and full employment amid conflicting economic indicators [3][4][6] Economic Indicators - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI declining and corporate orders decreasing, indicating pressure on the real economy [4] - Conversely, the job market remains strong with low unemployment rates and stable wage growth, suggesting a relatively healthy economy [4] - Inflationary pressures persist, indicating that price stability has not yet been fully achieved [4][7] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell is caught in a dilemma between addressing high inflation, which could erode purchasing power, and high unemployment, which could lead to social issues and reduced economic growth [3][4] - The internal debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding which risk is greater—high inflation or high unemployment—reflects the complexity of the current economic situation [3] Market Expectations - Investors and the Trump administration anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, hoping it will create a more accommodative monetary policy environment and stimulate economic growth [3][4] - The communication surrounding any potential rate cut is crucial, as it could signal either a temporary measure or the beginning of a series of cuts, impacting market confidence [5] Historical Context - Powell's tenure has been marked by unprecedented challenges, including aggressive monetary policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures [6] - He aims to emulate the flexible policy adjustments of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan while navigating the current economic uncertainties [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Political Crisis - The Federal Reserve is at the center of a political crisis influenced by Trump's efforts to reshape the deep government, raising questions about its ability to manipulate interest rates[2] - As of August 9, the top three candidates for the "shadow Fed chair" are Waller (26.6%), Hassett (13.7%), and Warsh (7.9%) based on market expectations[2][3] - Trump's potential influence includes nominating a "dovish" shadow chair and possibly replacing Powell if he does not remain[3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Manipulation - The Fed can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, as rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors[4] - The neutral interest rate in the U.S. has risen from around 0% to approximately 1-1.5%, indicating that the Fed's rate cuts may have a terminal point around 300-350 basis points[4] - By July 2025, the Fed's target for the federal funds rate should be between 3.8% and 6.3%, with the current rate at 4.3%, suggesting no restrictive policy at present[4] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Monetary Coordination - The Fed's ability to cut rates depends more on fiscal consolidation than on board changes, as government deleveraging can lower the neutral rate and support the Fed's anti-inflation efforts[5] - Historically, a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lead to a 12-35 basis point decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield[5] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs and implications[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data and inflation concerns [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with a 75 basis point reduction expected throughout the year [4]. - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate the first rate cut in September [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive and advocates for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Fed's neutral rate [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales data is crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with expectations of a 0.5% month-on-month increase in July [5]. - Recent employment reports indicate a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs for May and June, raising concerns about the labor market [4]. - The Fed's decision-making may hinge on further employment and inflation data before the September meeting [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The list of potential successors for Fed Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating a shift in the administration's approach to leadership at the Fed [7]. - Some Fed policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year [7][8]. - Despite the shift towards easing, there are still cautious voices within the Fed, emphasizing the need to balance inflation targets with employment goals [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker believes that there is still a long way to go before reaching a neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker's comments suggest that the current interest rates are not yet at a level that can be considered neutral for the economy [1] - The statement indicates ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth, implying that further adjustments to interest rates may be necessary [1] - The perspective reflects a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve in navigating monetary policy amidst changing economic conditions [1]