1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metals will continue to play between geopolitical risks, inflation stickiness, and stagflation expectations. Inflation expectations, hawkish policies of major central banks, high oil prices, and a strong US dollar may limit the rebound. If the global economic slowdown is verified later, stagflation trading may support gold and silver. In the long - term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remains, and precious metals still have allocation value. It is expected to digest the gains through fluctuations in the short - term. Technically, the RSI and KD indicators of London gold and silver are in the oversold range, and the 30 - minute MACD golden cross indicates short - term rebound momentum. Short - term operations should be cautious, and long - term funds can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 17,085 yuan/kilogram, up 1,674 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 54,345 lots, down 8,419 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 52,442 lots, down 3,386 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 282,408 lots, down 104,014 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,247,893 lots, down 11,431 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 106,743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 365,923 kilograms, up 1,374 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 979.56 yuan, up 54.91 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 16,608 yuan, down 102 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.28 yuan/gram, up 17.63 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 477 yuan/gram, down 1,776 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.12, down 0.40; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.15, down 0.63; the CBOE gold volatility index was 43.36, up 8.11 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.47, up 0.05; the gold - silver ratio was 66.43, up 3.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [2]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump had no right to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The two sides have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [2]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes it is too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy. He thinks the labor market is weak and advocates further interest rate cuts [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk to the US economy. He does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, there may be interest rate cuts later this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 24, 21:45: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value [2] - March 24, 22:00: US February new home sales annualized total [2] - March 24, 22:00: US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index [2] - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders monthly rate [2] - March 26, 20:30: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value [2] - March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending monthly rate [2] - March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that if energy issues persist, expectations for overseas recession may increase significantly [2][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. dollar may benefit from prolonged energy issues, potentially aiding the U.S. in maintaining credit expansion temporarily [3] - New energy transactions are expected to outperform in the context of high energy costs combined with recession expectations [3][18] - The report highlights that if energy issues continue, the price transmission in agriculture may be better than in industrial sectors [3][19] - The medium-term outlook is positive for coal, new energy, agriculture, electricity, oil, and U.S. capital goods related to inflation [3] - The long-term outlook favors insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution strategies, and Chinese internet companies [3] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. inflation de-escalation process is showing signs of slowing down, with the overall CPI rising to 0.3% month-on-month, driven by energy prices [8][12] - Core CPI has slightly decreased to 0.2% month-on-month but remains stable at 2.5% year-on-year, indicating that inflation levels are still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [8][10] - The report emphasizes that core services inflation remains sticky, with housing prices increasing by 3.0% year-on-year and healthcare services accelerating to 4.1% [10][12] - The report discusses the impact of energy disruptions on overseas recession expectations, indicating that prolonged energy issues could lead to a significant increase in recession probabilities [17] - It is noted that agricultural prices may transmit better than industrial prices due to the rigid demand for food and the direct impact of rising energy costs [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a rapid shift from "safe-haven" to liquidity drag last week, with the trading focus shifting from pure geopolitical conflict speculation to pricing of "economic recession" and "inflation stickiness." Geopolitical factors, economic data, and central bank policies have all influenced the prices of gold and silver, leading to a high-level oscillation pattern for both metals [4]. - The U.S. economy shows signs of deceleration, with GDP growth slowing, the job market cooling unexpectedly, and inflation remaining moderately stable. The Federal Reserve has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and initiated a technical expansion, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral observation" [24][32][39]. - In the gold market, global supply increased slightly in 2025, while demand reached a record high, driven by investment and central bank purchases. The silver market has a relatively stable supply, and demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially in the photovoltaic sector. The supply-demand gap has been narrowing, and inventory has started to rebound [43][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The precious metals market was affected by geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and central bank policies. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell, with London gold closing down 2% for the week at $5,172 per ounce, and London silver closing down 9.9% at $84.5 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also declined [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Conservative investors are advised to wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear, while aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **U.S. Economic Growth**: The U.S. GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, mainly due to the government shutdown. Consumer spending growth also slowed, and investment performance was mixed. Retail sales in January were lower than expected, affected by cold weather and falling oil prices [24][25][26]. - **Employment Market**: The U.S. job market cooled unexpectedly in February, with non-farm payrolls decreasing by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The decline in private - sector employment and manufacturing jobs was significant, especially in the healthcare industry [32]. - **Inflation**: U.S. inflation was generally moderate in January, with the CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year. Energy prices and some commodity prices contributed to the decline in inflation, but core inflation remained sticky. However, the energy price surge caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict may change the inflation outlook [36]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve stopped shrinking its balance sheet and initiated a technical expansion, indicating a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral observation" [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2025, global gold supply increased by 0.6% to 5,002 tons, and demand increased by 7.8% to 4,999.4 tons, reaching a record high. Investment demand and central bank purchases were the main drivers of demand growth, while jewelry demand declined [43]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, global central banks have been actively buying gold. In 2025, central bank gold purchases reached 863 tons. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been actively involved in gold purchases for various reasons [53]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: The global silver supply increased by 2% in 2024 and is expected to continue growing in 2025. Demand is mainly from industrial use, especially in the photovoltaic sector. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, and inventory has started to rebound [55]. - **Silver Inventory**: LBMA inventory decreased significantly in 2022 - 2024, and in 2025, the inventory situation in different regions changed due to market factors. The overall supply shortage situation has not been reversed [62]. - **Silver ETF Demand**: The total global silver ETF holdings are generally at a high level, but have declined recently with the price correction. The overseas silver leasing rate has fluctuated, and the domestic silver supply - demand situation remains tight [64][65].

Global Asset Price Performance - Commodity prices have generally increased, driven by geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 3.8% and 4.9% respectively, and gold prices increasing by 3.3% [2] - Global stock markets showed mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.4%, 1.3%, and 1% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 11 basis points compared to the previous week [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is advancing a "deregulation" agenda, proposing reforms to the banking regulatory framework, including raising asset thresholds for community banks and revising anti-money laundering reporting standards [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its policy interest rates unchanged, with President Lagarde expecting inflation to stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term [4] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) hinted at a possible interest rate hike in March or April if wage negotiations yield higher-than-expected results [4] US Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has fallen below 6% for the first time since September 2022, potentially reviving housing demand [7] - Year-over-year growth rates for home prices have declined, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Home Price Index, and Freddie Mac Home Price Index recording decreases of 1.3%, 1.8%, and 0% respectively [7] - Inflation remains sticky, with the US December PPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year rate holding steady at 3% [7] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Economic confidence in Europe has decreased, with both the EU and Eurozone economic sentiment indices dropping by 1 point to 98.3, below the long-term average [12] - The UK private credit giant Market Financial Solutions (MFS) has entered bankruptcy proceedings due to allegations of fraud and asset double-pledging, raising concerns about the fragility of the private credit market [12]

Global Asset Performance - Commodity prices have generally risen, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increasing by 3.8% and 4.9% respectively[15] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.4%, 1.3%, and 1.0% respectively[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 11 basis points compared to last week[15] Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is advancing deregulation, proposing reforms to the banking regulatory framework, including adjustments to capital frameworks[5] - The European Central Bank maintains its policy rate unchanged, anticipating inflation to stabilize around the 2% target[17] - The Bank of Japan hinted at a potential interest rate hike in March or April if wage negotiations exceed expectations[17] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. has fallen below 6% for the first time since September 2022, potentially reviving housing demand[21] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, with the core PPI rising to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations[21] - The U.S.-Iran negotiations in Geneva have stalled, primarily due to U.S. military mobilization in early February[21] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Economic confidence in the EU and Eurozone has declined, with both indices dropping by 1 point to 98.3, below the long-term average[32] - The UK private credit firm MFS has entered bankruptcy proceedings due to allegations of fraud and asset double-pledging, raising concerns about the fragility of the private credit market[32]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The January CPI in the US was 2.4% year-on-year, lower than expected and the previous value, marking a decline for three consecutive months since September 2025 [3][4] - Core CPI remained at 2.5%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value, while the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, also below expectations [3][4] - Energy price declines, along with decreases in used car prices and slight slowdowns in housing and food inflation, contributed to the overall CPI being below expectations [4] Group 2: Non-Farm Employment Report - The US added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025 [6][12] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 4.4%, reaching a new low since September 2025 [6][12] - Employment improvements were primarily driven by a few sectors, particularly education and healthcare, which contributed nearly 80% of the new jobs, indicating a lack of broad-based recovery [12][14] Group 3: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of the non-farm data, US stock markets, bond yields, and the dollar index experienced fluctuations, while gold prices initially fell before rising [16][17] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 increasing from 2.36 to 2.53 after the CPI release, indicating a slight warming of rate cut expectations [17][21] - The combination of strong non-farm data and weak CPI has led to a complex interplay in asset prices, with ongoing debates about growth resilience and inflation persistence [21][22]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below market expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations but higher than the 12-month average of 0.2%[3] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising and then falling, while gold prices increased[9] - After the CPI announcement, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12]

Core Viewpoint - Tyson Foods reported a total revenue of $14.313 billion for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.97, higher than the analyst average estimate but down 15% year-over-year [1][2] Financial Performance - The company raised its full-year adjusted operating profit forecast for the chicken business to $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion, up from the previous estimate of $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion [2] - The beef business's loss forecast was narrowed to $250 million to $500 million, down from the previous estimate of $400 million to $600 million [2] - Chicken business sales reached $4.212 billion, a 3.6% increase, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of sales growth [2] - Beef business revenue was $5.771 billion, an 8.2% increase, but faced an adjusted operating loss of $319 million due to a shortage of beef supply in the U.S. [2] Stock Performance - Over the past 7 trading days (February 6 to 12, 2026), Tyson Foods' stock price fluctuated by 4.43% and declined by 2.47%, with a trading volume of approximately $638 million [3] - As of February 12, the stock closed at $63.59, down 1.17% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 8.48%, underperforming the broader market [3] Recent Events - Tyson Foods will distribute a dividend of $0.51 per share on June 1, 2026, with the ex-dividend date also on June 1 and the payment date on June 15 [4] - The company announced the closure of its beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, which accounted for about 4.8% of the U.S. beef processing capacity, to optimize its cost structure in response to industry challenges [4] Institutional Perspectives - In February 2026, Tyson Foods was covered by 16 institutions, with 38% recommending buy or hold, and 56% recommending hold, with a target average price of $68.09 [5] - Earnings per share for Q1 2026 are projected at $0.946, a year-over-year decline of 14.91%, with revenue expected to be $14.0 billion, a 5.06% increase [5] - Institutions noted that rising beef prices and strong chicken demand reflect persistent inflation in the U.S., but the shortage of beef supply remains a short-term constraint on profit recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for February is critical for determining the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate policy, with expectations leaning towards stagnation in job growth and a steady unemployment rate around 4.4% [1][2][6]. Employment Data Context - January's employment data showed a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added in the private sector, far below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest since 2021 [2][6]. - A record 108,435 layoffs were announced in January, a 118% increase from the previous year, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [2][4]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 by the end of January, exceeding market expectations, further confirming the cooling labor market [2][4]. Market Expectations - The consensus among market participants is that February's non-farm payrolls will show job growth stagnating between 60,000 to 80,000, with a risk of falling below 60,000, which would signal significant weakness [6][7]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%, with average hourly earnings growth projected to stay between 4.4% and 4.5%, reflecting persistent wage pressures [6][7]. Federal Reserve Policy Implications - Non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, directly influencing interest rate decisions [3][4]. - A weak jobs report could lead to a dovish shift in Fed policy, increasing expectations for rate cuts later in the year, while a strong report may reinforce a hawkish stance, delaying any rate cuts [3][11]. Scenario Analysis - **Weak Data Scenario**: If non-farm payrolls are below 60,000, the unemployment rate is above 4.5%, and wage growth is below 4.3%, this would likely lead to a dovish shift in Fed policy, boosting market risk appetite [9][10]. - **Strong Data Scenario**: Conversely, if job growth exceeds 80,000, the unemployment rate is below 4.3%, and wage growth is above 4.6%, the Fed may maintain a hawkish stance, leading to market pressure [11][12]. Institutional Perspectives - Most institutions predict a weak jobs report, with expectations that the Fed will gradually shift towards a dovish stance, although concerns about persistent inflation remain [13][14]. - Specific forecasts include Goldman Sachs predicting 70,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate, while Morgan Stanley suggests a more cautious outlook with potential job growth below 50,000 [7][13]. Investment Strategies - Short-term traders should focus on immediate market reactions post-data release, adjusting positions based on the report's outcome [14]. - Long-term investors are advised to consider the broader implications of Fed policy trends, potentially positioning in U.S. Treasuries and equities that are undervalued [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase of adjustment and repricing after a significant sell-off, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain above $70,000, indicating that the market has not yet reached a true macro bottom [1][2] Market Sentiment - Investor appetite for risk assets is diminishing, leading to increased expectations for Bitcoin to retrace to psychological price levels of $60,000 or even $50,000 [1][2] - Current market fluctuations are seen more as a cleanup of leveraged positions rather than the beginning of a new bull market [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the U.S. January CPI data is viewed as a key indicator of inflation persistence, which could significantly impact digital asset volatility [3] - There is a high probability (82%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, influenced by the new leadership's potentially hawkish stance [3] On-Chain Data - Recent on-chain data shows an unusual increase in miner transfers to exchanges, with a single-day inflow of 24,000 BTC on February 5, marking a peak for 2024 [2][4] - This significant inflow typically indicates that miners are hedging risks or taking profits, adding additional selling pressure to the market [4] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is undergoing a complex "bottom-seeking" process, with the DXY dollar index potentially mirroring the rotation logic of 2021, setting the stage for Bitcoin to reach a "ultimate peak" of $146,000 in the long term [4] - In the short term, the market must first navigate extreme pressure testing in the $50,000 range before any significant recovery can occur [4]