Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing intensified divergence between bulls and bears, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The short - term trends of nickel and stainless steel are affected by multiple factors such as policy expectations, cost, demand, and technical adjustments, and they are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 142,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 949,372 (-375,848) lots, and the open interest was 83,210 (-14,515) lots. The contract showed a wide - range volatile downward trend, with an obvious outflow of funds. The core drivers include the game of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy, the premium structure of spot goods, the demand transmission of stainless steel, and the high - level callback pressure on the technical side. The position - limit policy of the Shanghai Futures Exchange also had an impact [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore was stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. The price of domestic ferronickel rebounded slightly, and domestic factories' attitude of bargaining for raw material nickel ore may ease due to pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 149,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 7,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,798 (-187) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,708 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, which is essentially the resonance of policy expectation correction and technical adjustment. In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premiums, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand. Be vigilant against the callback risk caused by capital outflows. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side position, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,305 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 287,688 (-82,040) lots, and the open interest was 141,891 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a bottom - hunting and rebound, with a volatile and slightly stronger trend, presenting a pattern of "cost support + demand game". The core logic lies in the upward cost of ferronickel, the price - holding by steel mills, and the inventory reduction of spot goods providing support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users and the fluctuation of Shanghai nickel dragging down the futures market. The divergence between bulls and bears is concentrated on the pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling rhythm and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's quota [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the weak upward movement of the futures market, the quotes of spot traders declined. In the Foshan area, due to the early expected Spring Festival holiday, the high - pressure of year - end payment collection, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, and the weak trading volume, traders' phenomenon of selling at a discount increased, and the price was slightly lower than that in the Wuxi area. Although the current demand for stainless steel is still weak and the spot quotes have slightly adjusted, the market's available spot supply is still tight, and the inventory pressure of traders mainly dealing in spot goods is low. With cost support and the high - level support of the futures market, the market's sentiment of holding prices still exists, and the short - term price may remain firm. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,150 (-150) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 10 - 210 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,027.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the price trend of ferronickel, and the downstream stockpiling intensity before the Spring Festival. The support strength of the cost side and the recovery situation of the demand side will determine the subsequent trend direction. The single - side position is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].