Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing intensified divergence between bulls and bears, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The short - term trends of nickel and stainless steel are affected by multiple factors such as policy expectations, cost, demand, and technical adjustments, and they are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 142,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 949,372 (-375,848) lots, and the open interest was 83,210 (-14,515) lots. The contract showed a wide - range volatile downward trend, with an obvious outflow of funds. The core drivers include the game of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy, the premium structure of spot goods, the demand transmission of stainless steel, and the high - level callback pressure on the technical side. The position - limit policy of the Shanghai Futures Exchange also had an impact [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore was stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. The price of domestic ferronickel rebounded slightly, and domestic factories' attitude of bargaining for raw material nickel ore may ease due to pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 149,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 7,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,798 (-187) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,708 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, which is essentially the resonance of policy expectation correction and technical adjustment. In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premiums, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand. Be vigilant against the callback risk caused by capital outflows. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side position, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,305 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 287,688 (-82,040) lots, and the open interest was 141,891 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a bottom - hunting and rebound, with a volatile and slightly stronger trend, presenting a pattern of "cost support + demand game". The core logic lies in the upward cost of ferronickel, the price - holding by steel mills, and the inventory reduction of spot goods providing support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users and the fluctuation of Shanghai nickel dragging down the futures market. The divergence between bulls and bears is concentrated on the pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling rhythm and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's quota [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the weak upward movement of the futures market, the quotes of spot traders declined. In the Foshan area, due to the early expected Spring Festival holiday, the high - pressure of year - end payment collection, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, and the weak trading volume, traders' phenomenon of selling at a discount increased, and the price was slightly lower than that in the Wuxi area. Although the current demand for stainless steel is still weak and the spot quotes have slightly adjusted, the market's available spot supply is still tight, and the inventory pressure of traders mainly dealing in spot goods is low. With cost support and the high - level support of the futures market, the market's sentiment of holding prices still exists, and the short - term price may remain firm. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,150 (-150) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 10 - 210 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,027.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the price trend of ferronickel, and the downstream stockpiling intensity before the Spring Festival. The support strength of the cost side and the recovery situation of the demand side will determine the subsequent trend direction. The single - side position is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows potential for a mid-term strengthening, with short-term bullish advantages evident. The key focus is on whether the index can break through 3988, which would open the possibility for further gains towards 4034. Maintaining above 3920 is crucial as a bottom line [1][4][13]. Market Performance - The market opened lower at 3957, reached a high of 3977, and closed at 3963. The ratio of advancing to declining stocks was 1866 to 3414, indicating more declines than advances. The market exhibited disorganization, with no clear intention to break 3988, and a midday drop was attributed to technical requirements [2][16]. - The closing result was above 3960, which is acceptable but not ideal. The market has shown a rare eight consecutive days of gains, increasing the likelihood of 3815 being a significant low point [3][16]. Technical Analysis - The market needs to stabilize above 3936 to confirm the importance of 3815 as a low point. A breakthrough at 3988 is necessary for further advances towards 4034 [4][13]. - The daily key areas for the market are between 3924 and 3901, with strength indicated above 3977. The index is currently above the upper boundary, suggesting a strong position [7][17]. Short-term Strategy - The focus for the upcoming week is to prevent the formation of a short-term high point. The market should remain above 3960, with 3936 as a critical support level that should not be breached [4][13]. - The short-term technical indicators suggest that the market is currently in a position that could lead to further upward movement, but adjustments may be necessary [12][17]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term market outlook indicates that December may continue to show bearish trends or small candlestick formations. The potential for a month-long adjustment period exists, with a likelihood of oscillation rather than a one-sided decline [6][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a technical correction rather than a fundamental market reversal, with short-term indicators showing an "overbought" condition after a significant price increase [3] Market Dynamics - The gold price experienced a significant drop of 2.9% in a single day, marking the worst decline in 12 years, leading to concerns among investors about the future of gold [1][3] - The market had previously seen a surge of over $1,000 in gold prices over six weeks, prompting a necessary correction [3] Price Forecast - The current adjustment is expected to last 1 to 2 months, with a potential price decline of 10% to 15% [3] - Key support levels are identified at $3,900 to $3,904 per ounce, with a critical Fibonacci retracement level; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $3,760 [3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks continue to purchase gold, driven by concerns over U.S. debt credit and geopolitical risks, indicating a long-term strategy to diversify reserves [4] - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, reflecting a strong commitment to gold accumulation [4] Market Liquidity - The ongoing "liquidity feast" in the market is pushing gold prices, with an expectation of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could enhance gold's attractiveness [4] Structural Demand - There is a structural increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to underlying risks in private credit and U.S. debt issuance, which are seen as potential threats [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised against rushing to buy during this volatility, waiting for clear stabilization signals [5] - Mid-term strategies suggest entering positions if gold prices fall to the $3,800 to $3,900 range, with a focus on gradual accumulation [5] - Long-term investment should allocate 5% to 15% of the overall asset portfolio to gold, favoring gold ETFs and physical gold investments without leverage [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced dramatic fluctuations on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3704.77 points before closing at 3666.44 points, down 0.46% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.87% and 1.08%, respectively, with all three major indices closing near their lows [1] Market Dynamics - The market showed significant divergence, with a total trading volume of 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 6% from the previous trading day [3] - The ratio of advancing to declining stocks was 735 to 4648, indicating a substantial internal market divide, particularly affecting micro-cap stocks, which saw an average decline of 2.55% [3] Style Shift - A clear "big is beautiful" trend emerged, with most of the top 40 stocks by market capitalization showing gains, while the Wind micro-cap index dropped by 2.57% for three consecutive days [4] - The insurance sector performed notably well, with an index increase of 2.19%, led by China Pacific Insurance, which rose by 4.87% [4] - Some previously strong micro-cap stocks experienced significant corrections, such as Mingdiao Co., which fell by 8.50% after hitting a limit up [4] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to maintain key technical levels at 3700, 3684, and 3674 points, indicating increased bearish pressure [5] - The market showed signs of a potential upgrade in the nature of its adjustments, with a notable "index top divergence" observed [5] - The proportion of stocks with price changes exceeding 10% was 43 to 17, and those with changes greater than 5% was 86 to 265, reflecting increased market volatility [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a 96.9% probability of maintaining current rates, indicating that the market has already priced in the expectation of no change [3] - The real focus lies in Fed Chair Powell's communication style; a hawkish tone could pressure the stock market, while a more dovish signal might boost market confidence [3] - Domestic consumption data from the recent May Day holiday shows 314 million travelers generating 180.27 billion yuan in spending, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 8.0%, which exceeds expectations and signals strong domestic demand [6] Group 2 - Political dynamics in the U.S. are creating uncertainty, as Pence's criticism of Trump highlights the deep divisions within American politics, which could lead to volatility in capital markets [8] - Concerns are rising in the domestic futures market, with reports suggesting that retail investors' positions are being closely monitored, indicating a level of anxiety among market participants [9] - A three-dimensional observation framework is suggested, focusing on the Fed's decision-making paths, the sustainability of domestic consumption recovery, and the tension between technical market adjustments and favorable policies [11] Group 3 - The interplay between the consumption surge during the May Day holiday and potential policy support may indicate resilience in the Chinese economy, suggesting a possible new breakthrough [13] - Maintaining independent thinking amidst information overload is emphasized as a crucial strategy for market participants to navigate through economic cycles [13]