Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing intensified divergence between bulls and bears, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The short - term trends of nickel and stainless steel are affected by multiple factors such as policy expectations, cost, demand, and technical adjustments, and they are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 142,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 949,372 (-375,848) lots, and the open interest was 83,210 (-14,515) lots. The contract showed a wide - range volatile downward trend, with an obvious outflow of funds. The core drivers include the game of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy, the premium structure of spot goods, the demand transmission of stainless steel, and the high - level callback pressure on the technical side. The position - limit policy of the Shanghai Futures Exchange also had an impact [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: There were occasional inquiries in the nickel ore market but no transactions. The price of nickel ore was stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. The price of domestic ferronickel rebounded slightly, and domestic factories' attitude of bargaining for raw material nickel ore may ease due to pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 149,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 7,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,798 (-187) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,708 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, which is essentially the resonance of policy expectation correction and technical adjustment. In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premiums, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand. Be vigilant against the callback risk caused by capital outflows. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side position, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,305 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 287,688 (-82,040) lots, and the open interest was 141,891 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a bottom - hunting and rebound, with a volatile and slightly stronger trend, presenting a pattern of "cost support + demand game". The core logic lies in the upward cost of ferronickel, the price - holding by steel mills, and the inventory reduction of spot goods providing support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users and the fluctuation of Shanghai nickel dragging down the futures market. The divergence between bulls and bears is concentrated on the pre - Chinese - New - Year stockpiling rhythm and the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's quota [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the weak upward movement of the futures market, the quotes of spot traders declined. In the Foshan area, due to the early expected Spring Festival holiday, the high - pressure of year - end payment collection, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream users, and the weak trading volume, traders' phenomenon of selling at a discount increased, and the price was slightly lower than that in the Wuxi area. Although the current demand for stainless steel is still weak and the spot quotes have slightly adjusted, the market's available spot supply is still tight, and the inventory pressure of traders mainly dealing in spot goods is low. With cost support and the high - level support of the futures market, the market's sentiment of holding prices still exists, and the short - term price may remain firm. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,300 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,150 (-150) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 10 - 210 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,027.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it may maintain a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the price trend of ferronickel, and the downstream stockpiling intensity before the Spring Festival. The support strength of the cost side and the recovery situation of the demand side will determine the subsequent trend direction. The single - side position is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan in 2026 setting a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices led stainless steel prices to continue rising. The limited arrival of goods at steel mills and the increasing replenishment demand of traders led to a further decline in inventory. Supported by the expected Indonesian policy, the price of ferronickel remained firm, and the spot transaction price rebounded to 920 - 930 yuan per nickel. However, the spot market showed a differentiated pattern of "active trading but weak end - users". Affected by factors such as seasonal lack of orders and pressure on capital repatriation, end - users were indifferent to price fluctuations. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promoted the rise of raw material prices and accelerated inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, the price may rise further. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions on dips and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Points Summary**: On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in December, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was - 140 yuan per ton, the production profit was 304,860 tons, the supply was - 165, the demand was 314,910 tons, and the inventory was 1.0051 million tons. The long - short scores were all neutral. The short - term market was supported by policy expectations, and if the nickel ore supply quota was tightened, prices might rise further. It was recommended to consider long positions on dips and monitor policy implementation [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [16]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 79) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 140 yuan (- 129) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk was 191,862 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.68% [19]. - The spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 2 was - 90 (- 60), and the spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 3 was - 155 (- 65) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48% [26]. - In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [29]. - In November, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [32]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [39]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [42]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the automobile sales volume in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons [49]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 13.7647 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [56]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [59]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, with no week - on - week change; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 165 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reached - 1.24% [65].