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200万教师编制正在消失,教师行业将如何破局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 00:34
Core Viewpoint - The crisis of teacher surplus in China is rapidly spreading, with projections indicating a potential surplus of 2 million teaching positions by 2035 due to a significant decline in newborns [1][3]. Group 1: Teacher Surplus and Employment Changes - By 2035, there will be a surplus of 1.5 million elementary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers, leading to a total of 2 million teaching positions disappearing [1]. - The education system is undergoing major reforms, such as the implementation of performance-based contracts for teachers, which could lead to job losses for those who do not meet performance standards [3]. - In Jiangxi Province, the number of new teacher recruitments is projected to drop from 20,775 in 2020 to just 2,146 by 2025, a staggering decline of 90% [3]. Group 2: School Closures and Teacher Placement - Between 2022 and 2023, a total of 20,400 kindergartens and 5,600 elementary schools were closed nationwide, with the Northeast region being particularly affected [5]. - Suggestions have been made to address the surplus by reducing class sizes, shifting from 50 students per class to 25 or even 15 [5]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions for Teacher Surplus - One proposed solution is to encourage older teachers to retire early or transition to administrative roles, allowing younger teachers to take on frontline teaching positions [9]. - Another suggestion is to facilitate the transfer of surplus teachers to other educational sectors, such as vocational schools and community education, where there is still demand for educators [12]. - Implementing a rotation system for teachers could help alleviate the surplus in urban areas by encouraging teachers to work in underserved rural regions [14].