目前初中学龄人口仍在增加。 在泉州市丰泽区，根据当地媒体报道，2025年丰泽区全区小学毕业生总数达8656人，较2024年增长 4.3%（增加357人），其中公办小学毕业生7579人、民办小学毕业生1077人。叠加申请回丰泽就读的户 籍及随迁子女约200人，初中招生需求总量预计达8856人。2025年初中毕业生7073人，学位缺口约1783 人，须增加公办初中学校招生规模。今年城东中学、泉州九中、东海中学、泉州师院附属中学等均增加 了招生计划数。 今年，郑州市内九区报名参加小升初总人数为11.57万人，比去年增加1.3万人。其中进城务工人员随迁 子女人数为3.45万人，随迁子女占报名总人数的29.8%。 初中招生持续增加的同时，小学招生人数明显下降。2024年，全国小学招生1616.63万人，较上年减少 261.25万人。有专家分析称，在新的人口形势下，小学、初中、高中教师会波浪起伏式地出现"富 余"与"紧缺"问题，同时叠加农村与城市的流动导致的城乡差异。 2024年教育部副部长王光彦在"推动高质量发展"系列主题新闻发布会上表示，在义务教育方面，小学在 学规模已于2023年达峰，初中学龄人口仍在持续增加。 2 ...

国内教师过剩的危机正在快速蔓延。根据北师大发布的数据，到2035年，全国将有150万个小学老师和37万个初中老师岗位过剩，如果再加上高中老师，那 全国将有200万个教师编制会凭空消失。而导致未来200万教师编制消失的主要原因是，新生儿出生数量出现了断崖式下跌。从目前情况来看，还没有止跌企 稳的迹象。 对于原来在编的老教师，如果达到退休年龄让他们早点退休，还没达到退休年龄的让他们退居二线，做一些行政、辅助教育等工作，把更多年轻教师推向一 线教学岗位。同时，不再扩大教师的编制，所有新参加工作的年轻教师都实行合同制。 对于考核业绩好的教师继续签订劳动合同，而对于考核业绩差的教师，就可以解聘。这样一来，原来的教师编制会逐步缩小，年轻教师也可以"优胜劣汰"。 不仅如此，现在各地的教育系统也已经开始大的改革。天津西青区推出了《中小学教师聘期管理实施方案》，彻底打破了教师的铁饭碗，以后中小学教师只 有考核合格才能留聘，不合格的就直接开除。还有江西省的教师大缩编，2020年江西全省计划招聘教师的人数是20775人。而到了2025年，招聘人数就直接 暴跌到2146人，降幅高达90%。 更夸张的是，福建厦门已经明确表示：以后招录 ...

Core Points - The closure of Shanghai Sanqiao Primary School, which had more teachers than students, highlights the issue of resource wastage in education due to declining student enrollment [1][2] - The trend of declining student numbers is a reflection of the broader demographic changes in China, particularly the decrease in birth rates since 2016 [3][7] - The Ministry of Education has reported a significant drop in primary school enrollment, with 16.16 million students enrolled in 2024, a decrease of 2.61 million from the previous year [3][10] Group 1: Declining Enrollment and Teacher Surplus - The phenomenon of schools announcing closures or mergers due to insufficient enrollment is becoming common across the country, with many parents expressing sadness over the closure of their alma maters [3][4] - Predictions indicate that the total demand for primary education teachers in China will decrease from approximately 15.70 million in 2025 to about 10.37 million by 2035, a reduction of 5.33 million [5][12] - The teacher-student ratio in primary schools has reached its lowest in a decade at 1:16.06 in 2024, indicating a surplus of teachers [10] Group 2: Teacher Reallocation and Transition - Many regions are implementing teacher reallocation strategies, moving surplus primary school teachers to teach in middle and high schools due to declining student numbers [14][19] - The Ministry of Education has emphasized the need for dynamic adjustments in teacher allocation to address the surplus in primary education while meeting the demand in higher education levels [24][22] - The transition of teachers from primary to secondary education is seen as a necessary strategy to manage the imbalance in teacher supply and demand [22][19] Group 3: Small Class Teaching and Resource Optimization - Experts advocate for the promotion of small class teaching as a means to improve educational quality and better utilize existing teaching resources [31][32] - Small class teaching, which limits class sizes to enhance personalized education, has been implemented in some regions, such as Jiangsu Province [36] - However, there are concerns that small class teaching alone cannot resolve the fundamental issues of teacher surplus and resource allocation [35][34] Group 4: Future Strategies and Recommendations - The need for a robust mechanism for teacher mobility and resource allocation is highlighted, with suggestions for policies that encourage teachers to move between urban and rural areas [29][30] - Recommendations include developing a teacher retirement and reallocation system to address the surplus while ensuring educational quality [37][38] - The experience of countries with low birth rates, such as South Korea and Japan, suggests that managing teacher numbers through natural attrition may be a viable long-term strategy [38]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the education sector in response to changing student demographics, particularly the surplus of primary school teachers and the shortage of middle school teachers [2][4][6] Group 1: Education Demographics - The scale of primary education has peaked in 2023, while the population of middle school students continues to rise [1][4] - In 2024, nationwide primary school enrollment is projected to be 16.17 million, a decrease of 2.61 million from the previous year, while middle school enrollment is expected to increase to 18.49 million, an increase of 0.94 million [4] Group 2: Teacher Allocation Strategies - Various regions are implementing strategies to address the imbalance in teacher resources, such as selecting primary school teachers to teach in middle schools [2][3][4] - Longyan City in Fujian Province plans to select 30 primary school teachers to teach in middle schools to alleviate teacher shortages [2] - Ezhou City in Hubei Province has decided to reduce the number of primary school teachers by 500 and reallocate those positions to middle schools [2][4] Group 3: Teacher Qualifications and Training - The effectiveness of transferring primary school teachers to middle school positions depends on the individual teacher's qualifications and teaching capabilities [5][6] - Training programs are being established to enhance the teaching skills of selected primary school teachers, ensuring they can adapt to middle school education [5][6] - The need for a comprehensive evaluation system for teacher performance post-transfer is emphasized to ensure quality education [4][5]