数字基建REITs融资

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2025年公募REITs市场8月半月报:整体缩量下跌,较红利股息差升至高位-20250818
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-18 10:11
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - From August 1 - 15, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs continued the trend of declining with shrinking volume. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.9%, underperforming the 300 Index return and the CSI Dividend Total Return Index. The liquidity further contracted, with the average daily turnover rate narrowing by 0.06 percentage points compared to July to 0.5%. All types of REITs declined, with only warehousing logistics (-0.7%) and energy (-0.7%) showing relative resilience [3]. - The valuations of all types of REITs were generally downgraded, and the internal rate of return (IRR) generally increased. The P/NAV of equity - type REITs was at the 58% quantile (down 14 points from the end of July), and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs was at the 62% quantile (down 11 points from the end of July). The IRR quantile values of all types of REITs increased, with energy (+17pcts) and affordable housing (+14pcts) showing significant increases [3]. - The dividend spread of equity - type REITs relative to the CSI Dividend reached the 74% historical high, highlighting the allocation cost - effectiveness. The dividend payout rate quantiles of consumer REITs and industrial park REITs improved significantly [3]. - Two IDC REITs hit the daily limit on their listing days, and the offline new - share subscription yield for REITs in 2025 exceeded 3%. As of August 15, after excluding the extreme value of AVIC Yicang REIT, the offline new - share subscription returns for 0.5 billion/1 billion RMB cash accounts in 2025 totaled 167/334 million RMB, with an offline subscription yield of 3.34% [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Near - half - month Decline with Shrinking Volume Continues, and Dividend Spread Relative to Dividends Reaches a High Again - **Market Performance**: From August 1 - 15, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.9%, underperforming the 300 Index return by 5.1 percentage points. All types of REITs generally declined, with affordable housing REITs falling 3.4%, consumer REITs having a deep correction of 3.2% (the largest monthly decline in 2025), and industrial park, public utilities, and highway REITs falling 2.5%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, with the decline rates expanding compared to July [3][6]. - **Valuation and Yield**: The valuations of all types of REITs were downgraded. The P/NAV of equity - type REITs was at the 58% quantile (down 14 points from the end of July), and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs was at the 62% quantile (down 11 points from the end of July). The IRR of all types of REITs increased, with energy and affordable housing showing significant increases. The dividend spread of equity - type REITs relative to the CSI Dividend reached the 74% historical high, and the dividend payout rate quantiles of consumer and industrial park REITs improved significantly [3]. 3.2 Digital Infrastructure REITs Financing Approved, Three Newly - Issued REITs to be Unlocked in the Second Half of the Month - **Policy Support**: On August 5, 2025, seven departments including the People's Bank of China issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", supporting the use of real - estate investment trusts (REITs) to expand the sources of funds for digital infrastructure construction [37]. - **Project Status**: As of August 15, there were 10 newly - issued and 4 expansion - offering projects under review at the exchanges, and 1 newly - issued and 1 expansion - offering project had been approved by the CSRC. China Merchants Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT will be publicly offered from August 20 - 21. Recently, five REITs including Bailian Consumer, Capital Mall, Xiamen Affordable Housing, Shenzhen Affordable Housing, and Beijing Affordable Housing will be unlocked [39][41]. 3.3 Two IDC REITs Hit the Daily Limit on Their Listing Days, and the Offline New - Share Subscription Yield in 2025 Exceeds 3% - **New Listings**: As of August 15, the total number of listed REITs on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached 73, with a total market value of 219 billion RMB. Three new REITs were listed in the first half of August (including two IDC and one energy REIT), with an issuance scale of 8.8 billion RMB. The two IDC projects hit the 30% daily limit on their listing days and continued to rise within three days of listing [53]. - **Offline New - Share Subscription Yield**: As of August 15, after excluding the extreme value of AVIC Yicang REIT, the offline new - share subscription returns for 0.5 billion/1 billion RMB cash accounts in 2025 totaled 167/334 million RMB, with an offline subscription yield of 3.34%. There were no newly - issued unlocking projects in the first half of August (based on a 12 - month lock - up period) [57].