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国地中心首席科学家:人形机器人未来收入主要是这两方面
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 00:55
Group 1 - The global humanoid robot market is expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with China projected to have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, leading to a market size of approximately 10 trillion yuan [1] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk highlighted at the recent annual shareholder meeting that Tesla's humanoid robot will be the largest product ever, with a market size expected to reach tens of billions of units, and production lines aiming for a capacity ramp-up faster than any previous large-scale manufacturing [1] - Tesla plans to initiate production of its third-generation humanoid robots next year, targeting an annual output of 1 million units at a production cost of around $20,000, with a phased approach to increase capacity to 10 million units at its Texas Gigafactory by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised regarding the actual mass production of humanoid robots, with a Goldman Sachs report indicating that surveyed Chinese robotics companies lack clear mass production timelines and large orders [3] - The chief scientist of the National Local Joint Innovation Center for Humanoid Robots stated that while there may appear to be overcapacity in some industrial sectors, there is still significant demand for high-value manufacturing, emphasizing the need for a focus on software and data revenue rather than just hardware sales [3] - The Goldman Sachs survey revealed that most robotics companies plan to scale up gradually after receiving actual orders, suggesting that current production plans do not necessarily indicate an imminent risk of oversupply [3] Group 3 - The humanoid robot sector is viewed as entering a new era, with expectations of 20,000 to 25,000 units shipped in China this year, marking it as a year of mass production initiation [4] - The industry anticipates unexpected results in the coming year, indicating a positive outlook for future developments in humanoid robotics [4]